Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Sterling remains supported by the UK’s comparatively resilient services activity and a Bank of England stance that continues to prioritise inflation containment over near-term growth concerns. However, this support is tempered by softening UK consumer indicators and signs of slowing wage momentum.On t…
Month: December 2025
USDCHF 19/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
USDCHF trades around 0.7945, with short-term direction shaped by late-week positioning and relative monetary policy expectations. The US Dollar remains sensitive to recent inflation prints and interest-rate guidance, while the Swiss Franc continues to draw intermittent safe-haven demand, particularly in…
USDJPY 19/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
USDJPY remains primarily driven by the interest rate differential between the United States and Japan. US yields continue to hold at elevated levels, supported by resilient US economic data and a cautious Federal Reserve stance regarding the pace of future rate cuts. This maintains underlying USD suppor…
XAGUSD 19/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Silver remains primarily driven by a combination of US dollar dynamics, real yield expectations, and broader risk sentiment. With the Federal Reserve in a late-cycle stance, markets continue to price gradual easing into 2026, keeping real yields capped in the near term. This backdrop remains broadly sup…
XAUUSD 19/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Gold remains supported by a combination of late-cycle macro conditions and near-term risk sensitivity. Recent US data has reinforced expectations that policy rates are close to their terminal level, with markets increasingly focused on the timing and pace of eventual easing rather than further tightenin…
CHFJPY 18/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
CHFJPY remains primarily driven by relative risk sentiment and central bank policy expectations. The Japanese yen continues to trade as a funding and defensive currency, with near-term price action sensitive to global equity volatility and US yields. The Swiss franc also retains defensive charac…
EURGBP 18/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Short-term fundamentals remain relatively balanced, with neither Sterling nor the Euro showing a decisive macro advantage. UK data flow has been mixed, with resilience in services activity offset by ongoing sensitivity to restrictive financial conditions and slowing consumer momentum. In the Euro area, …
EURJPY 18/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Near-term EURJPY dynamics remain driven by yield differentials and risk sentiment. The euro continues to draw modest support from relatively stable euro area growth expectations and reduced recession risk, while ECB policy remains restrictive but on hold. By contrast, the Japanese yen remains st…
EURUSD 18/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
EURUSD remains driven by relative monetary policy expectations and near-term macro data surprises rather than longer-cycle structural themes.
On the US side, the Federal Reserve stance remains restrictive but increasingly data-dependent. Recent inflation and labour-market releases have reinforced expec…
GBPJPY 18/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Sterling remains sensitive to UK rate expectations and near-term data flow, while the yen continues to be driven primarily by global risk sentiment and yield differentials rather than domestic Japanese data. Recent sessions have seen GBP supported by comparatively resilient UK growth expectations, while…