secundum Liber Abaci
Praemonitus, Praemunitus
Fibbinarchie
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
USDCHF Analysis 03/02/2026 @ 11:05 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
USDCHF is trading at 0.7785, up approximately 0.7 % on the session and pulling back from the 52-week low of 0.7603 set on 28 January 2026. The pair has lost roughly 13.7 % over the trailing twelve months. Two distinct macro narratives are competing for near-term control: the structurally bearish Swiss-franc safe-haven trade versus a freshly emerging “Warsh premium” in the dollar that has pushed the DXY to 97.43–97.60 today — its strongest two-day gain in nine months.
Federal Reserve – United States. The FOMC voted 10–2 to hold the federal-funds target at 3 ½ – 3 ¾ % on 28 January, ending three consecutive 25 bp cuts from late 2025. Dissenting in favour of a cut were Miran and Waller. Chair Powell described the economy as expanding “at a solid pace” and coming into 2026 “on a firm footing”, whilst noting job gains remain low but the unemployment rate shows signs of stabilisation. He assessed the current rate as “loosely neutral” and stressed that decisions would be made “meeting by meeting”. J.P. Morgan’s strategists do not anticipate a rate cut until summer; futures markets price in at most two reductions across 2026 and none in 2027. Core PCE is running at 2.8 % year-on-year; Powell expects tariff-related inflation to peak around mid-2026.
Kevin Warsh – Fed chair nominee. On 30 January President Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell when his chairmanship expires in May 2026. Warsh, 55, served as a governor from 2006 to 2011 and gained international experience as the Fed’s representative to the G-20. Invesco notes that, whilst Warsh’s track record appears hawkish, he is currently in favour of greater policy easing in 2026, driven by a view that productivity gains could support growth without higher inflation. The nomination itself triggered an immediate dollar rally: the DXY rose 1.5 % to 97.60 in two days — its best two-day gain in nine months — as markets priced in a more cautious approach to rate cuts. However, confirmation is far from certain. Senator Thom Tillis, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, reaffirmed he would not back Warsh until the DOJ probe into Powell is resolved. Senate Majority Leader Thune acknowledged that without Tillis, Warsh could “probably not” win confirmation.
Swiss National Bank – Switzerland. The SNB held its policy rate at 0.00 % at its December 2025 meeting and is expected to remain there throughout 2026. The Swiss franc has already gained 3.5 % against the dollar in 2026 alone, following a 12.7 % gain in 2025, driven by unpredictable US trade policy, questions over Fed independence, and geopolitical tensions. SNB Chairman Schlegel told CNBC that “the bar to go negative is higher than normal” but added that if the SNB needs to go negative, it will. Schlegel anticipates a rise in Swiss inflation in coming months and believes current monetary conditions are appropriate. Swiss CPI was 0.0 % in November 2025 and edged to 0.1 % in December; the SNB projects average inflation of just 0.3 % across 2026.
US economic data – ISM Manufacturing PMI. The ISM Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 52.6 in January 2026 from 47.9 in December, far above forecasts of 48.5, signalling the first expansion in manufacturing in 12 months. New orders surged to 57.1 from 47.4 and production climbed to 55.9 from 50.7. The ISM chair cautioned that some of the buying appeared to be front-running expected tariff-driven price increases rather than reflecting genuine demand growth. GDP remains robust: Q3 2025 expanded at a 4.4 % annual rate and Q4 is tracking at 5.4 % per the Atlanta Fed.
Safe-haven flows. The franc touched 0.78 per USD on 28 January — the highest since January 2015 — as a global pivot toward safe assets combined with aversion toward other currencies drove markets to pile into the franc. US Treasury signals favouring a purposefully weaker dollar, combined with Japanese officials’ tolerance for a weak yen, channelled safe-haven flows disproportionately into CHF. The Warsh nomination has temporarily cooled this trade; the question is whether the reprieve is structural or merely tactical.
Fundamental / Economic Verdict
The medium-term fundamental case remains decisively bearish for USDCHF. The SNB’s zero-rate anchor, near-zero Swiss inflation, two dovish Fed dissents, and persistent structural safe-haven demand all point toward further franc appreciation over weeks and months. The significant near-term caveat is the Warsh nomination: if confirmed and perceived as genuinely hawkish, it could sustain the dollar bounce for longer than a purely technical mean-reversion. Critically, the Tillis confirmation block and unresolved DOJ probe introduce material political risk that could reverse the “Warsh premium” rapidly. The ISM PMI surprise (52.6) reinforces short-term USD support but is partly driven by tariff front-running rather than genuine demand growth. On balance, shorts remain structurally favoured; longs are tactical only.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
USDCHF has staged a sharp bounce from the 52-week low of 0.7603 (28 Jan) to today’s quote of 0.7785, a recovery of 182 pips (2.4 %). Critically, ActionForex’s daily outlook published at 06:46 GMT today confirms that the breach of 0.7792 resistance suggests short-term bottoming at 0.7603, with the intraday bias turning mildly to the upside and targeting the 55-day EMA now at 0.7912. This is a meaningful technical shift: 0.7792 was the gating resistance in every prior session since the low. Its breach flips the near-term chart posture.
Chart patterns. A triangle consolidation pattern confirmed an upside breakout on 30 January after a strong bearish move had produced lower highs and higher lows, compressing price before expansion. A tentative double-bottom is forming with the left shoulder at the late-January low; the neckline sits at 0.7792, which has been breached intraday. TradingView community analysis also identified a completed Head & Shoulders pattern with a bearish neckline break — a longer-term bearish signal that remains in force if price cannot sustain above 0.7912.
Moving averages. The 55-day EMA sits at 0.7912 and is the next material target on the upside. The 50-day SMA is estimated near 0.7776, meaning today’s price at 0.7785 is straddling the 50D — a significant confluence. The 55-week EMA at 0.8166 defines the boundary of the broader bearish trend; price must reclaim it to challenge the medium-term structure.
Momentum & volatility. The daily RSI has moved out of extreme oversold territory (was ~29) and is recovering, supporting the near-term bounce. The ADX remains elevated above 53, confirming the underlying trend has not yet dissipated. ATR on the daily is 0.00066 — low in absolute terms — but the pair has just moved 182 pips in five sessions, indicating that the low-volatility regime is beginning to break down.
Sentiment indicators. Investing.com’s daily technical rating has flipped to Strong Buy, with moving averages showing 10 Buy and 2 Sell signals across MA5 to MA200. This contrasts with the weekly and monthly timeframes, which still register Sell / Strong Sell. The split reflects the tactical bounce within the structural bear.
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Context |
|---|---|---|
| R2 | 0.7912 | 55-day EMA (ActionForex, 03 Feb) – key upside target; breach here extends the correction toward 0.7960 and the 200D SMA |
| R1 | 0.7839 | ActionForex daily pivot R1 (03 Feb); first meaningful resistance above current spot |
| Current Spot | 0.7785 | Live price · straddling 50-day SMA (~0.7776) · above the breached 0.7792 neckline on an intraday basis; closing confirmation pending |
| S1 | 0.7736 | ActionForex daily pivot S1 (03 Feb); minor support on any intraday pull-back |
| S2 | 0.7603 | 52-week low (28 Jan) · ActionForex trend-resumption trigger · break here targets the 100 % projection at 0.7382 |
Technical Verdict
The breach of 0.7792 is the most significant technical development in several weeks and flips the immediate bias to the upside per ActionForex’s framework. The next target is the 55D EMA at 0.7912; a sustained close above it opens 0.7960 and the 200D SMA (~0.7987). However, the Channel Down from the 2022 high, the completed H&S pattern, and the 55W EMA at 0.8166 all confirm the medium-term structure is bearish. The double-bottom neckline breach is encouraging, but confirmation requires a closing price above 0.7792 — at 0.7785 today, that close is not yet assured.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Direction | Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long corrective bounce |
0.7740–0.7770 (pullback to S1 / 50D SMA) |
0.7700 (below S1 pivot) |
TP1 0.7839 TP2 0.7912 |
0.7792 neckline breach confirmed by ActionForex; 50D SMA acting as support; DXY momentum supporting USD; Warsh premium still priced. Risk/reward ~1.5 : 1 to TP1. |
| Short (trend-follow) |
0.7905–0.7920 (fade into 55D EMA) |
0.7960 (above 55D EMA + buffer) |
TP1 0.7785 TP2 0.7603 |
55D EMA historically acts as resistance in a Channel Down. If Warsh confirmation stalls or DOJ probe escalates, the Warsh premium unwinds rapidly. Structural trend intact below 0.8166. |
Position sizes should reflect current ATR. Reduce gross exposure ahead of NFP on 6 Feb; historical USDCHF NFP moves routinely exceed 60 pips in the first 15 minutes.
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case (50 % probability): USDCHF consolidates within a 0.7736–0.7912 range over the next 3–5 trading days. The Warsh nomination premium keeps a floor under the dollar, whilst the structural CHF safe-haven bid caps rallies at the 55D EMA. Price gravitates toward the 0.7785–0.7840 midpoint as the market digests Warsh confirmation headlines and waits for NFP. Neither the 52-week low nor the 55D EMA is decisively breached.
Key assumptions:
- NFP (6 Feb) comes in broadly in line with consensus (~67 000 monthly); no material surprise in either direction.
- Warsh confirmation process proceeds without immediate collapse; Tillis block remains a threat but does not materialise this week.
- SNB refrains from overt FX intervention; verbal warnings continue.
- No material escalation of tariff rhetoric or new geopolitical shock.
- ISM Services PMI (today) does not dramatically contradict the manufacturing expansion narrative.
Risk management checklist:
- Long stops must sit below 0.7700 — below the S1 pivot and well clear of the 50D SMA — to avoid intraday noise around 0.7736.
- Short positions should only be initiated on a confirmed rejection at or above the 55D EMA (0.7912); do not anticipate — wait for the candle to close.
- Halve position size by the NFP window (6 Feb, 13:30 GMT). Re-enter after the initial spike resolves.
- Cross-check EURCHF and GBPCHF daily: broad CHF strength across the board overrides any single-pair USD headline.
- If the Tillis block on Warsh is confirmed or the DOJ probe expands, treat that as an immediate bearish catalyst; de-risk longs before waiting for price to confirm.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Prob. | Target Range | Catalysts / Triggers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consolidation (Base) |
50 % | 0.7736–0.7912 | NFP in line; Warsh hearing proceeds without drama; SNB verbal only; no new geopolitical shock. The 55D EMA caps rallies; the 52-wk low caps selling. Price churns between S1 and R2. |
| Bullish Correction | 30 % | 0.7912–0.7987 | Warsh Senate Banking hearing goes smoothly; Warsh signals hawkish inflation stance. NFP surprises materially to the upside. ISM Services confirms the manufacturing rebound. DXY extends above 98. 55D EMA breached on a closing basis; 200D SMA (~0.7987) tested. |
| Bearish Breakdown | 20 % | 0.7550–0.7603 | Tillis formally blocks Warsh; DOJ probe escalates. NFP disappoints; market reprices two cuts by June. New tariff escalation or geopolitical event rekindles safe-haven flows. A close below 0.7603 activates stop-losses toward the 0.7382 projection. |
The fundamental verdict is bearish over the medium term but carries a meaningful near-term caveat. The SNB’s zero-rate anchor, Swiss inflation at or near zero, two dovish Fed dissents, and the structural safe-haven bid for CHF all argue for continued franc appreciation. Against that, the Warsh nomination has introduced a temporary “hawkish Fed chair” premium into the dollar, reinforced by a genuinely surprising ISM Manufacturing PMI (52.6 vs 48.5 expected) and a robust GDP trajectory. The critical uncertainty is whether the Warsh premium survives the Senate confirmation gauntlet — the Tillis block and the DOJ probe represent material risks that could evaporate the premium overnight.
The technical verdict is tactically bullish for the first time since the pair broke below 0.7792 in late January. ActionForex confirmed the breach this morning; the 55D EMA at 0.7912 is the near-term target. The tentative double-bottom neckline has been touched; confirmation requires a closing price above 0.7792. However, the Channel Down, the completed H&S pattern, and the 55W EMA at 0.8166 all confirm that any recovery remains counter-trend until substantially more structure is rebuilt.
Synthesising the two verdicts: the most probable outcome over the next seven days is a range-bound consolidation between 0.7736 and 0.7912 (50 % probability), as the Warsh premium and the ISM surprise support the dollar whilst the structural CHF bid and political uncertainty cap any sustained recovery. Traders should favour tactical longs on dips toward 0.7740–0.7770 targeting the 55D EMA, with disciplined stops below 0.7700. Shorts are reserved exclusively for confirmed rejections at or above 0.7912.
Beyond the 7-day tactical window, the structural bearish case for USDCHF remains intact. The SNB’s refusal to go negative, the Fed’s dovish dissents, and the unresolved political threats to Fed independence collectively point toward further franc strength once the Warsh noise subsides. Any sustained rally toward 0.7987 or above should be viewed as an opportunity to reset shorts at better levels — not as a trend change.
USDCHF Analysis 02/02/2026 @ 19:00 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
USD/CHF reflects relative monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB), coupled with safe‑haven demand for the Swiss franc amid broader financial uncertainty. Recent developments include the Swiss National Bank denying currency manipulation allegations while emphasising stability and inflation control, which underscores its focus on domestic mandates amid franc strength.
The US dollar has shown intermittent recoveries as markets reassess the Federal Reserve outlook following high‑profile central bank nominations that could influence future rate paths. This dynamic has temporarily eased some downside pressure on USD/CHF after historic lows.
However, the Swiss franc continues to attract safe‑haven inflows and strength, evidenced by recent surges to decade‑high levels against major currencies, driven by global risk concerns and political uncertainty.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for USD/CHF remain mixed, with supportive drivers for franc strength from safe‑haven flows and SNB policy neutrality balanced by periodic US dollar recovering forces amid evolving Fed outlooks. Monetary policy divergence and risk sentiment remain key directional influences.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~0.7800 CHF per USD.
Technically, USD/CHF has been trading near recent recovery levels but remains within a broader medium‑term downtrend. Daily pivot‑based technical studies show mixed bias, with some indicators pointing to consolidation above key supports and others signalling bearish medium‑term pressure.
Approximate support and resistance levels:
| Level | Price (Approx) (CHF) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~0.7858 – 0.7900 |
| R1 | ~0.7795 – 0.7830 |
| Current Spot Price | ~0.7780 – 0.7815 |
| S1 | ~0.7700 – 0.7740 |
| S2 | ~0.7600 – 0.7650 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance clusters around 0.7795–0.7830, with extended resistance nearer 0.7858–0.7900 where prior pivot and technical resistance levels lie. Support: Near‑term support is observed in the 0.7700–0.7740 area, with deeper support around 0.7600–0.7650 reflecting significant swing lows and broader downtrend levels.
Technical verdict
Technically, the short‑term USD/CHF outlook is range‑bound with a bearish bias. Price action suggests neutral intraday behaviour around support, but broader trend measures still indicate downside risk unless key resistance levels are overcome.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~0.7700 – 0.7740 (support) | 0.7795 → 0.7858 | Below 0.7600 |
| Sell on rallies | ~0.7795 – 0.7830 (resistance) | 0.7740 → 0.7700 | Above 0.7900 |
| Breakout tactics | Above ~0.7858 | 0.7900 → higher | Below 0.7795 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: Expect consolidation within recent ranges, oscillating between defined support and resistance levels. A disciplined framework targeting support‑based accumulation and resistance‑based profit‑taking is appropriate, with vigilant attention to macroeconomic catalysts (Fed, SNB releases).
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (CHF) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | USD/CHF trades between support and resistance bands | ~0.7700 – 0.7858 |
| Bearish extension | Break below support extends medium‑term downtrend | 0.7650 – 0.7600+ |
| Bullish reversal | Break above key resistance with sustained dollar strength | 0.7858 – 0.7900+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: The short‑term fundamentals for USD/CHF are mixed, balancing safe‑haven Swiss franc strength and evolving US dollar dynamics, with policy divergence and risk sentiment as central drivers.
Technical verdict: Technically, the pair remains range‑bound with a bearish bent, where support and resistance levels provide tactical cues and broader downtrend pressures persist.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term USD/CHF outlook favours range‑based trading strategies, with an emphasis on support‑based buys and resistance‑guided sells, underpinned by careful risk controls given mixed fundamentals and technical structure.
USDCHF Chart
Economic News relating to USDCHF
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
XAUUSD Analysis 02/02/2026 @ 19:15 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Gold (XAU/USD) remains under intense macroeconomic influence amid volatile market conditions, shifting Fed expectations and safe‑haven demand. Recent data show a sharp correction from multi‑year highs following a hawkish shock from the nomination of a potentially tight Federal Reserve chair, which briefly boosted the US dollar and pressured gold prices.
At the same time, several major financial institutions continue to project strong medium‑ to long‑term fundamentals for gold, citing central bank reserve diversification, safe‑haven demand and persistent geopolitical risks. For example, J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank reaffirmed bullish year‑end 2026 price targets well above current levels, underscoring ongoing structural drivers despite recent volatility.
Economic indicators such as inflation trends, currency strength and global risk appetite remain crucial. A stronger US dollar typically exerts downward pressure on gold, whereas heightened geopolitical or economic uncertainty tends to support safe‑haven inflows into the bullion.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals are mixed. Near‑term pressures from dollar strength and profit‑taking have weighed on XAU/USD, but structural demand, central bank purchases and geopolitical risk continue to provide underlying support.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: approximately $4,650–$4,880 per ounce based on recent trading metrics.
Technically, gold has experienced heightened volatility with a notable correction following an extended rally to record highs in recent weeks. The price action has oscillated widely but retains room on both sides for traders weighing support and resistance levels. Recent technical summaries suggest short‑term oscillators and moving averages show mixed signals across intraday and daily timeframes.
Approximate support and resistance levels:
| Level | Price (Approx) (USD) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~$4,900 – $5,050 |
| R1 | ~$4,760 – $4,820 |
| Current Spot Price | ~$4,650 – $4,880 |
| S1 | ~$4,440 – $4,580 |
| S2 | ~$4,250 – $4,350 |
Resistance: Near‑term upside encounters resistance around $4,760–$4,820, with a broader resistance zone near $4,900–$5,050 where prior multi‑year highs were established. Support: Immediate support is located near $4,440–$4,580, with deeper support closer to $4,250–$4,350, consistent with retracement zones after recent sell‑offs.
Technical verdict
Technically, the short‑term outlook is neutral with a bias towards consolidation. The steep corrective move following an extended rally has left price oscillating and price signals mixed. Support and resistance zones are crucial for tactical positioning, but overall trend biases remain under review.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~$4,440 – $4,580 (support) | $4,760 → $4,900 | Below $4,250 |
| Sell on rallies | ~$4,760 – $4,820 (resistance) | $4,580 → $4,440 | Above $5,050 |
| Breakout play | Above ~$4,900 | $5,050 → higher | Below $4,760 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: XAU/USD is likely to trade within a broad range defined by the key support and resistance levels, with traders focusing on support‑based entries and resistance‑area exits. Tight risk control remains essential due to heightened volatility and ongoing macroeconomic drivers.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Price consolidates between support and resistance bands | ~$4,440 – $4,900 |
| Bullish extension | Break above resistance with renewed risk appetite or macro catalysts | $4,900 – $5,050+ |
| Bearish correction | Extended pullback on stronger USD or reduced safe‑haven flows | $4,580 → $4,250+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Fundamentals are mixed, with near‑term downward pressure from dollar strength and profit‑taking balanced by longer‑term support from safe‑haven demand and central bank interest in gold.
Technical verdict: Technically, gold displays a neutral to consolidative short‑term structure, bounded by clear support and resistance zones where price action may oscillate.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for XAU/USD favours defined range trading, with support‑driven entries and resistance‑based exits, within a broader context where macro fundamentals and risk sentiment will continue to shape price direction. Attention to key levels and disciplined risk management is recommended in light of recent volatility.
XAUUSD Chart
Economic News relating to XAUUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURUSD Analysis 02/02/2026 @ 19:31 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
EUR/USD has been driven by macro forces including central‑bank policy divergence, US dollar strength, and European economic data. The pair recently fell below the 1.20 handle after strength in the US dollar was reinforced by expectations around a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve chair nomination, counteracting earlier rallies in the euro.
European economic indicators have pointed to modest growth and resilience in the eurozone economy, with recent GDP data showing slightly stronger performance than expected at the end of 2025, which supports the euro’s fundamental backdrop.
ECB policymakers have also highlighted concerns about the euro’s rapid appreciation and its impact on inflation and competitiveness, potentially influencing future monetary policy decisions.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for EUR/USD are mixed. Support for the euro stems from reasonable economic growth and underlying confidence in the eurozone, whilst the US dollar’s recent rebound on improved data and policy expectations exerts downward pressure on the pair. Policy divergence and risk sentiment will remain central drivers.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: approximately 1.18–1.19 USD per EUR, reflecting recent corrective price action after a rally above the 1.20 level.
Technical data indicate that EUR/USD entered a correction phase after breaking above key resistance near 1.20–1.21 earlier in the year, and the pair is now testing support levels that were previous resistance.
Approximate support and resistance levels:
| Level | Price (Approx) (USD) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~1.2050 – 1.2100 |
| R1 | ~1.2000 – 1.2025 |
| Current Spot Price | ~1.1850 – 1.1900 |
| S1 | ~1.1800 – 1.1850 |
| S2 | ~1.1650 – 1.1750 |
Resistance: Immediate resistance is located around the 1.2000–1.2025 area, where earlier breakout attempts stalled. A broader resistance zone extends into the 1.2050–1.2100 range. Support: Near‑term support is found around 1.1800–1.1850, with deeper support down near 1.1650–1.1750, reflecting previous consolidation lows.
Technical verdict
Technically, the short‑term outlook is corrective within a broader trend. While the larger structure showed strength above 1.20, recent price action reflects a pullback and testing of support zones. Confirmation above key resistance would signal bullish continuation, whereas breaks below support could signal further downside risk.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~1.1800 – 1.1850 (support) | 1.2000 → 1.2050 | Below 1.1650 |
| Sell on rallies | ~1.2000 – 1.2025 (resistance) | 1.1850 → 1.1800 | Above 1.2100 |
| Breakout tactics | Above ~1.2050 | 1.2100 → higher | Below 1.2000 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: EUR/USD is likely to consolidate within the current range while testing critical support and resistance levels. A risk‑managed strategy focusing on buying at support and selling near resistance is appropriate, given the corrective price action and mixed fundamentals.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Consolidation between near‑term support and resistance | ~1.1800 – 1.2050 |
| Bullish resumption | Break higher on euro strength / weaker US dollar | 1.2050 – 1.2100+ |
| Bearish extension | Break below support on renewed dollar strength | 1.1750 → 1.1650+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: The fundamental backdrop for EUR/USD is mixed, with euro support from eurozone growth and ECB dynamics balanced by US dollar strength and Fed policy expectations.
Technical verdict: Technically, the pair is currently in a corrective phase following resistance rejection, with clear support and resistance zones guiding short‑term action.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term EUR/USD outlook favours range‑based strategies, with support‑driven buys and resistance‑targeted sells, guided by disciplined risk management as fundamentals and technicals evolve in a mixed macroeconomic environment.
EURUSD Chart
Economic News relating to EURUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
USDCHF Analysis 03/02/2026@ 15:45 GMT · Spot 0.7785 (live) · 52-wk range 0.7603 – 0.9195
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
USDCHF is trading at 0.7785, up approximately 0.7 % on the session and pulling back from the 52-week low of 0.7603 set on 28 January 2026. The pair has lost roughly 13.7 % over the trailing twelve months. Two distinct macro narratives are competing for near-term control: the structurally bearish Swiss-franc safe-haven trade versus a freshly emerging “Warsh premium” in the dollar that has pushed the DXY to 97.43–97.60 today — its strongest two-day gain in nine months.
Federal Reserve – United States. The FOMC voted 10–2 to hold the federal-funds target at 3 ½ – 3 ¾ % on 28 January, ending three consecutive 25 bp cuts from late 2025. Dissenting in favour of a cut were Miran and Waller. Chair Powell described the economy as expanding “at a solid pace” and coming into 2026 “on a firm footing”, whilst noting job gains remain low but the unemployment rate shows signs of stabilisation. He assessed the current rate as “loosely neutral” and stressed that decisions would be made “meeting by meeting”. J.P. Morgan’s strategists do not anticipate a rate cut until summer; futures markets price in at most two reductions across 2026 and none in 2027. Core PCE is running at 2.8 % year-on-year; Powell expects tariff-related inflation to peak around mid-2026.
Kevin Warsh – Fed chair nominee. On 30 January President Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell when his chairmanship expires in May 2026. Warsh, 55, served as a governor from 2006 to 2011 and gained international experience as the Fed’s representative to the G-20. Invesco notes that, whilst Warsh’s track record appears hawkish, he is currently in favour of greater policy easing in 2026, driven by a view that productivity gains could support growth without higher inflation. The nomination itself triggered an immediate dollar rally: the DXY rose 1.5 % to 97.60 in two days — its best two-day gain in nine months — as markets priced in a more cautious approach to rate cuts. However, confirmation is far from certain. Senator Thom Tillis, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, reaffirmed he would not back Warsh until the DOJ probe into Powell is resolved. Senate Majority Leader Thune acknowledged that without Tillis, Warsh could “probably not” win confirmation.
Swiss National Bank – Switzerland. The SNB held its policy rate at 0.00 % at its December 2025 meeting and is expected to remain there throughout 2026. The Swiss franc has already gained 3.5 % against the dollar in 2026 alone, following a 12.7 % gain in 2025, driven by unpredictable US trade policy, questions over Fed independence, and geopolitical tensions. SNB Chairman Schlegel told CNBC that “the bar to go negative is higher than normal” but added that if the SNB needs to go negative, it will. Schlegel anticipates a rise in Swiss inflation in coming months and believes current monetary conditions are appropriate. Swiss CPI was 0.0 % in November 2025 and edged to 0.1 % in December; the SNB projects average inflation of just 0.3 % across 2026.
US economic data – ISM Manufacturing PMI. The ISM Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 52.6 in January 2026 from 47.9 in December, far above forecasts of 48.5, signalling the first expansion in manufacturing in 12 months. New orders surged to 57.1 from 47.4 and production climbed to 55.9 from 50.7. The ISM chair cautioned that some of the buying appeared to be front-running expected tariff-driven price increases rather than reflecting genuine demand growth. GDP remains robust: Q3 2025 expanded at a 4.4 % annual rate and Q4 is tracking at 5.4 % per the Atlanta Fed.
Safe-haven flows. The franc touched 0.78 per USD on 28 January — the highest since January 2015 — as a global pivot toward safe assets combined with aversion toward other currencies drove markets to pile into the franc. US Treasury signals favouring a purposefully weaker dollar, combined with Japanese officials’ tolerance for a weak yen, channelled safe-haven flows disproportionately into CHF. The Warsh nomination has temporarily cooled this trade; the question is whether the reprieve is structural or merely tactical.
Fundamental / Economic Verdict
The medium-term fundamental case remains decisively bearish for USDCHF. The SNB’s zero-rate anchor, near-zero Swiss inflation, two dovish Fed dissents, and persistent structural safe-haven demand all point toward further franc appreciation over weeks and months. The significant near-term caveat is the Warsh nomination: if confirmed and perceived as genuinely hawkish, it could sustain the dollar bounce for longer than a purely technical mean-reversion. Critically, the Tillis confirmation block and unresolved DOJ probe introduce material political risk that could reverse the “Warsh premium” rapidly. The ISM PMI surprise (52.6) reinforces short-term USD support but is partly driven by tariff front-running rather than genuine demand growth. On balance, shorts remain structurally favoured; longs are tactical only.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
USDCHF has staged a sharp bounce from the 52-week low of 0.7603 (28 Jan) to today’s quote of 0.7785, a recovery of 182 pips (2.4 %). Critically, ActionForex’s daily outlook published at 06:46 GMT today confirms that the breach of 0.7792 resistance suggests short-term bottoming at 0.7603, with the intraday bias turning mildly to the upside and targeting the 55-day EMA now at 0.7912. This is a meaningful technical shift: 0.7792 was the gating resistance in every prior session since the low. Its breach flips the near-term chart posture.
Chart patterns. A triangle consolidation pattern confirmed an upside breakout on 30 January after a strong bearish move had produced lower highs and higher lows, compressing price before expansion. A tentative double-bottom is forming with the left shoulder at the late-January low; the neckline sits at 0.7792, which has been breached intraday. TradingView community analysis also identified a completed Head & Shoulders pattern with a bearish neckline break — a longer-term bearish signal that remains in force if price cannot sustain above 0.7912.
Moving averages. The 55-day EMA sits at 0.7912 and is the next material target on the upside. The 50-day SMA is estimated near 0.7776, meaning today’s price at 0.7785 is straddling the 50D — a significant confluence. The 55-week EMA at 0.8166 defines the boundary of the broader bearish trend; price must reclaim it to challenge the medium-term structure.
Momentum & volatility. The daily RSI has moved out of extreme oversold territory (was ~29) and is recovering, supporting the near-term bounce. The ADX remains elevated above 53, confirming the underlying trend has not yet dissipated. ATR on the daily is 0.00066 — low in absolute terms — but the pair has just moved 182 pips in five sessions, indicating that the low-volatility regime is beginning to break down.
Sentiment indicators. Investing.com’s daily technical rating has flipped to Strong Buy, with moving averages showing 10 Buy and 2 Sell signals across MA5 to MA200. This contrasts with the weekly and monthly timeframes, which still register Sell / Strong Sell. The split reflects the tactical bounce within the structural bear.
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Context |
|---|---|---|
| R2 | 0.7912 | 55-day EMA (ActionForex, 03 Feb) – key upside target; breach here extends the correction toward 0.7960 and the 200D SMA |
| R1 | 0.7839 | ActionForex daily pivot R1 (03 Feb); first meaningful resistance above current spot |
| Current Spot | 0.7785 | Live price · straddling 50-day SMA (~0.7776) · above the breached 0.7792 neckline on an intraday basis; closing confirmation pending |
| S1 | 0.7736 | ActionForex daily pivot S1 (03 Feb); minor support on any intraday pull-back |
| S2 | 0.7603 | 52-week low (28 Jan) · ActionForex trend-resumption trigger · break here targets the 100 % projection at 0.7382 |
Technical Verdict
The breach of 0.7792 is the most significant technical development in several weeks and flips the immediate bias to the upside per ActionForex’s framework. The next target is the 55D EMA at 0.7912; a sustained close above it opens 0.7960 and the 200D SMA (~0.7987). However, the Channel Down from the 2022 high, the completed H&S pattern, and the 55W EMA at 0.8166 all confirm the medium-term structure is bearish. The double-bottom neckline breach is encouraging, but confirmation requires a closing price above 0.7792 — at 0.7785 today, that close is not yet assured.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Direction | Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long corrective bounce |
0.7740–0.7770 (pullback to S1 / 50D SMA) |
0.7700 (below S1 pivot) |
TP1 0.7839 TP2 0.7912 |
0.7792 neckline breach confirmed by ActionForex; 50D SMA acting as support; DXY momentum supporting USD; Warsh premium still priced. Risk/reward ~1.5 : 1 to TP1. |
| Short (trend-follow) |
0.7905–0.7920 (fade into 55D EMA) |
0.7960 (above 55D EMA + buffer) |
TP1 0.7785 TP2 0.7603 |
55D EMA historically acts as resistance in a Channel Down. If Warsh confirmation stalls or DOJ probe escalates, the Warsh premium unwinds rapidly. Structural trend intact below 0.8166. |
Position sizes should reflect current ATR. Reduce gross exposure ahead of NFP on 6 Feb; historical USDCHF NFP moves routinely exceed 60 pips in the first 15 minutes.
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case (50 % probability): USDCHF consolidates within a 0.7736–0.7912 range over the next 3–5 trading days. The Warsh nomination premium keeps a floor under the dollar, whilst the structural CHF safe-haven bid caps rallies at the 55D EMA. Price gravitates toward the 0.7785–0.7840 midpoint as the market digests Warsh confirmation headlines and waits for NFP. Neither the 52-week low nor the 55D EMA is decisively breached.
Key assumptions:
- NFP (6 Feb) comes in broadly in line with consensus (~67 000 monthly); no material surprise in either direction.
- Warsh confirmation process proceeds without immediate collapse; Tillis block remains a threat but does not materialise this week.
- SNB refrains from overt FX intervention; verbal warnings continue.
- No material escalation of tariff rhetoric or new geopolitical shock.
- ISM Services PMI (today) does not dramatically contradict the manufacturing expansion narrative.
Risk management checklist:
- Long stops must sit below 0.7700 — below the S1 pivot and well clear of the 50D SMA — to avoid intraday noise around 0.7736.
- Short positions should only be initiated on a confirmed rejection at or above the 55D EMA (0.7912); do not anticipate — wait for the candle to close.
- Halve position size by the NFP window (6 Feb, 13:30 GMT). Re-enter after the initial spike resolves.
- Cross-check EURCHF and GBPCHF daily: broad CHF strength across the board overrides any single-pair USD headline.
- If the Tillis block on Warsh is confirmed or the DOJ probe expands, treat that as an immediate bearish catalyst; de-risk longs before waiting for price to confirm.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Prob. | Target Range | Catalysts / Triggers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consolidation (Base) |
50 % | 0.7736–0.7912 | NFP in line; Warsh hearing proceeds without drama; SNB verbal only; no new geopolitical shock. The 55D EMA caps rallies; the 52-wk low caps selling. Price churns between S1 and R2. |
| Bullish Correction | 30 % | 0.7912–0.7987 | Warsh Senate Banking hearing goes smoothly; Warsh signals hawkish inflation stance. NFP surprises materially to the upside. ISM Services confirms the manufacturing rebound. DXY extends above 98. 55D EMA breached on a closing basis; 200D SMA (~0.7987) tested. |
| Bearish Breakdown | 20 % | 0.7550–0.7603 | Tillis formally blocks Warsh; DOJ probe escalates. NFP disappoints; market reprices two cuts by June. New tariff escalation or geopolitical event rekindles safe-haven flows. A close below 0.7603 activates stop-losses toward the 0.7382 projection. |
Key events – next 7 calendar days:
Summary
The fundamental verdict is bearish over the medium term but carries a meaningful near-term caveat. The SNB’s zero-rate anchor, Swiss inflation at or near zero, two dovish Fed dissents, and the structural safe-haven bid for CHF all argue for continued franc appreciation. Against that, the Warsh nomination has introduced a temporary “hawkish Fed chair” premium into the dollar, reinforced by a genuinely surprising ISM Manufacturing PMI (52.6 vs 48.5 expected) and a robust GDP trajectory. The critical uncertainty is whether the Warsh premium survives the Senate confirmation gauntlet — the Tillis block and the DOJ probe represent material risks that could evaporate the premium overnight.
The technical verdict is tactically bullish for the first time since the pair broke below 0.7792 in late January. ActionForex confirmed the breach this morning; the 55D EMA at 0.7912 is the near-term target. The tentative double-bottom neckline has been touched; confirmation requires a closing price above 0.7792. However, the Channel Down, the completed H&S pattern, and the 55W EMA at 0.8166 all confirm that any recovery remains counter-trend until substantially more structure is rebuilt.
Synthesising the two verdicts: the most probable outcome over the next seven days is a range-bound consolidation between 0.7736 and 0.7912 (50 % probability), as the Warsh premium and the ISM surprise support the dollar whilst the structural CHF bid and political uncertainty cap any sustained recovery. Traders should favour tactical longs on dips toward 0.7740–0.7770 targeting the 55D EMA, with disciplined stops below 0.7700. Shorts are reserved exclusively for confirmed rejections at or above 0.7912.
Beyond the 7-day tactical window, the structural bearish case for USDCHF remains intact. The SNB’s refusal to go negative, the Fed’s dovish dissents, and the unresolved political threats to Fed independence collectively point toward further franc strength once the Warsh noise subsides. Any sustained rally toward 0.7987 or above should be viewed as an opportunity to reset shorts at better levels — not as a trend change.
CHFJPY Analysis 02/02/2026 @ 19:45 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The CHF/JPY currency pair reflects relative monetary drivers and safe‑haven flows linked to both the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. Both currencies are considered defensive assets, which can become bid during times of global risk aversion, geopolitical tension or financial market stress. Switzerland’s relatively strong macro fundamentals, including comparatively higher interest rates and low debt levels, have supported the franc in cross‑rate pairs such as CHF/JPY in recent years.
Japan’s persistently ultra‑accommodative monetary policy continues to weigh on the yen relative to currencies backed by stronger yield differentials, contributing to broader cross‑rate dynamics where JPY often underperforms. There is also influence from economic indicators such as Japanese trade balance data and Swiss retail sales figures, which can affect sentiment and flows in the pair.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for CHF/JPY are mildly supportive of franc strength against the yen, underpinned by yield differentials and safe‑haven status for the franc, though global risk sentiment and macroeconomic releases from Japan and Switzerland will continue to influence short‑term moves.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~¥199.3–¥200.3 per CHF on recent data.
Technical evidence suggests mixed near‑term dynamics in CHF/JPY. Pivot point studies show the rate trading near key daily and higher‑timeframe supports and resistances. Some technical indicators highlight bullish signals from moving average crossovers and trend structures, while others point to consolidation and potential bearish divergence.
Approximate support and resistance levels:
| Level | Price (Approx) (JPY) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~201.30–202.35 |
| R1 | ~199.48–200.06 |
| Current Spot Price | ~199.30–200.30 |
| S1 | ~197.95–199.05 |
| S2 | ~195.60–197.11 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance hovers near ¥199.48–¥200.06 and extends toward ~¥201.30–¥202.35, where recent pivot extremes and congestion have formed. Support: Initial support lies around ~¥197.95–¥199.05, with deeper backing around ~¥195.60–¥197.11 where sellers previously softened.
Technical verdict
Technically, CHF/JPY is showing neutral to mildly bullish tendencies in the short term, with price oscillating around key pivot levels. The balance between support and resistance zones suggests consolidation, but upward channels and moving average support hint at potential continuation if critical resistance is cleared.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~¥197.95 – ¥199.05 (support) | ¥199.48 → ¥201.30 | Below ¥195.60 |
| Sell on rallies | ~¥199.48 – ¥200.06 (resistance) | ¥199.05 → ¥197.95 | Above ¥202.35 |
| Breakout play | Above ~¥201.30 | ¥202.35 → higher | Below ¥199.48 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: CHF/JPY is expected to consolidate within established pivot ranges, offering strategic buying near support levels and cautious selling around resistance. Risk management should emphasise stops beyond deeper support or resistance pivots given potential volatility in cross‑rate trade.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (JPY) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Price oscillates between defined S1 and R1 levels | ~¥197.95 – ¥201.30 |
| Bullish extension | Break above R2 with continued franc strength | ¥201.30 – ¥202.35+ |
| Bearish correction | Rejection at resistance leads to deeper support testing | ¥199.05 → ¥195.60+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: CHF/JPY fundamentals are mildly supportive of franc strength, influenced by positive yield differentials and defensive currency characteristics, albeit with continued sensitivity to macroeconomic releases and global risk sentiment.
Technical verdict: Technically, the pair is in a neutral to slightly bullish consolidation phase, with clear support and resistance pivots guiding short‑term price structure.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term CHF/JPY outlook favours tactical trading within defined support/resistance ranges, with potential for continuation if key resistance levels are overcome. Traders should monitor macroeconomic indicators and pivot levels closely and use disciplined risk parameters in strategies.
CHFJPY Chart
Economic News relating to CHFJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURJPY Analysis 02/02/2026 @ 20:00 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
EUR/JPY reflects macro dynamics arising from monetary policy divergence, risk sentiment and currency‑specific economic data. The Eurozone outlook is influenced by mixed indicators; while investor confidence measures have stabilised and some surveys show improving expectations, economic conditions remain uneven across the bloc, shaping ECB communications that emphasise data dependency and caution.
Conversely, the Japanese yen tends to strengthen during risk‑off episodes owing to its safe‑haven status and Japan’s persistent macro‑economic challenges. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has signalled gradual normalisation, but policy shifts remain measured, contributing to interest rate differentials that can benefit riskier currencies like the euro against the yen.
Overall, global risk sentiment and central bank policy expectations, particularly around ECB and BoJ actions, are critical short‑term drivers for EUR/JPY.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals are mixed with a mild bias favouring the euro due to interest rate differential expectations, while supportive risk appetite tends to weaken the yen. Market sentiment around global economic stability and monetary policy messaging remains key.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~¥183.4 per EUR according to the latest reference rates.
Technical studies suggest neutral to mildly bullish consolidation near current levels, with market indicators showing mixed momentum across timeframes. Daily pivot and trend analyses indicate the pair is consolidating above recent short‑term lows, with upside pressure capped by medium‑term resistance.
Approximate support and resistance levels:
| Level | Price (Approx) (JPY) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~186.8 – 187.5 |
| R1 | ~184.0 – 184.8 |
| Current Spot Price | ~183.4 – 183.6 |
| S1 | ~181.8 – 182.5 |
| S2 | ~178.5 – 180.0 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance clusters around ¥184.0–¥184.8, corresponding with recent pivot highs and consolidation ceilings. Broader resistance territory sits near multi‑month peaks around ¥186.8–¥187.5. Support: Immediate support is identified near ¥181.8–¥182.5 from recent swing lows, with deeper support nearer ¥178.5–¥180.0 reflecting medium‑term consolidation lows.
Technical verdict
Technically, EUR/JPY exhibits neutral to mildly bullish characteristics in the short term, trading within a range defined by clear support and resistance zones. Sustained moves through these pivots may dictate the next directional bias.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~¥181.8 – ¥182.5 (support) | ¥184.0 → ¥186.8 | Below ¥178.5 |
| Sell on rallies | ~¥184.0 – ¥184.8 (resistance) | ¥182.5 → ¥181.8 | Above ¥187.5 |
| Breakout play | Above ~¥186.8 | ¥187.5 → higher | Below ¥184.0 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: The pair is expected to consolidate within the current range, with support near short‑term lows and resistance near recent highs providing tactical entry and exit areas. Risk management should emphasise defined invalidation levels to contain volatility.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (JPY) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Price oscillates within defined support and resistance | ~¥181.8 – ¥186.8 |
| Bullish extension | Break above resistance with improved euro sentiment | ¥186.8 – ¥187.5+ |
| Bearish correction | Rejection at resistance and yen strength returns | ¥182.5 → ¥178.5+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Fundamentals are mixed with a mild positive tilt for the euro, driven by interest rate differential expectations and risk sentiment dynamics, while yen strength in risk‑off scenarios adds complexity.
Technical verdict: The technical structure appears neutral to mildly bullish, with well‑defined support and resistance levels framing the short‑term range.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term EUR/JPY outlook favours range‑based trading, using support and resistance pivots to guide tactical positions. Breakouts beyond the range could signal trend resumption, while disciplined risk management remains essential in a mixed macro and technical environment.
EURJPY Chart
Economic News relating to EURJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
USDJPY Analysis 02/02/2026 @ 20:16 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
USD/JPY continues to be shaped by monetary policy divergence between the United States and Japan, evolving Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy expectations, and risk sentiment in global markets. The BoJ recently maintained its policy rate at 0.75 %, but minutes from its latest meeting revealed growing concerns about inflation and the potential for further rate hikes, signaling a gradual hawkish tilt.
At the same time, the US dollar’s strength is influenced by investor caution over US policy uncertainty, while data on inflation and employment remain in focus for Federal Reserve expectations. Persistent yen weakness has also featured in market dynamics, with Japanese authorities using strategic communications to modestly support the currency.
Short‑term market sentiment often interprets USD/JPY moves through the lens of risk‑on/risk‑off shifts, where safe‑haven demand for the yen can temporarily bolster JPY, while broader risk appetite tends to favour USD strength.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for USD/JPY remain mixed, with a still‑pronounced yield differential supporting the US dollar, while growing expectations of further BoJ tightening and persistent inflation pressures add nuance to the pair’s outlook. Global risk sentiment and macro releases in the coming days will be key determinants of direction.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: approximately 155.55 JPY per USD based on the latest available rate.
Technical indicators suggest neutral to slightly bullish tendencies, with pivot analyses showing key support and resistance levels around recent consolidation zones. Momentum indicators on some charting platforms highlight a mixed technical profile, with signals ranging from neutral to buys on shorter timeframes.
Approximate support and resistance levels:
| Level | Price (Approx) (JPY) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~158.00 – 158.50 |
| R1 | ~156.50 – 157.50 |
| Current Spot Price | ~155.50 – 155.60 |
| S1 | ~153.50 – 154.50 |
| S2 | ~151.80 – 152.50 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance clusters around the 156.50–157.50 zone where recent run‑ups were capped, and a broader resistance band near 158.00–158.50 aligns with previous multi‑session highs. Support: Initial support lies around 153.50–154.50, with deeper backing near 151.80–152.50, reflecting previous swing lows that have held during short‑term corrections.
Technical verdict
Technically, USD/JPY’s short‑term outlook is neutral to mildly bullish, with defined support and resistance levels framing a consolidation range. A break above key resistance would signal further upside potential, whereas breakdowns below support could invite accelerated selling pressure.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~¥153.50 – ¥154.50 (support) | ¥156.50 → ¥158.00 | Below ¥151.80 |
| Sell on rallies | ~¥156.50 – ¥157.50 (resistance) | ¥155.50 → ¥153.50 | Above ¥158.50 |
| Breakout play | Above ~¥158.00 | ¥158.50 → higher | Below ¥156.50 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: USD/JPY is expected to range‑trade across key support and resistance zones, with the medium‑term yield differential and central bank signals providing directional bias. Traders should manage risk with clear invalidation levels beyond established pivots to account for volatility linked to macroeconomic data releases.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (JPY) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Price oscillates within support/resistance range | ~¥153.50 – ¥158.00 |
| Bullish breakout | Break above resistance on strong USD demand | ¥158.00 – ¥159.50+ |
| Bearish correction | Yen strength or dollar pullback pushes price lower | ¥154.50 → ¥151.80+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Fundamentals remain mixed, with yield differentials and dollar strength balanced by evolving BoJ policy expectations and risk sentiment influences.
Technical verdict: Technically, USD/JPY is neutral to mildly bullish, trading within a defined range with clear support and resistance zones.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for USD/JPY favours range‑trading strategies, using high‑probability entry and exit levels around support and resistance. Breakouts beyond these levels could define next directional moves, but disciplined risk management is recommended given mixed macro and technical conditions.
USDJPY Chart
Economic News relating to USDJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
GBPUSD Analysis 02/02/2026 @ 20:30 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
GBP/USD reflects UK–US monetary policy divergence, inflation trends, growth indicators, and broad risk sentiment. Recent UK inflation data has remained above target, keeping expectations of delayed or slower rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) intact, which supports sterling relative to currencies where easing is anticipated more quickly. Markets now see the first BoE rate cut shifting toward mid‑2026 rather than the immediate horizon, making GBP relatively appealing in the near term.
Across the Atlantic, US economic resilience and interest rate expectations have underpinned the US dollar, particularly amid strong jobs data and reduced probability of early Federal Reserve easing. Dollar strength in global markets has restrained GBP/USD advance and contributed to risk‑on/risk‑off dynamics.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals are mixed but slightly supportive of GBP/USD upside, driven by delayed BoE weakening expectations and elevated UK inflation, while persistent US dollar strength and global risk sentiment introduce counter‑pressures.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: Approximately 1.366 USD per GBP, with recent trading around this level.
Current technical readings show consolidation near recent highs, with pivot‑based resistance and support clusters guiding price structure. Indicators such as moving averages and RSI provide mixed signals, reflecting short‑term indecision with mild upward bias if key resistances are cleared.
Approximate support and resistance levels:
| Level | Price (Approx) (USD) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~1.3774 – 1.3862 |
| R1 | ~1.3684 – 1.3707 |
| Current Spot Price | ~1.3660 – 1.3665 |
| S1 | ~1.3630 – 1.3653 |
| S2 | ~1.3599 – 1.3646 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance is evident in the ~1.3684–1.3707 range and extends toward ~1.3774–1.3862, where prior highs and pivot projections cluster. Support: Immediate support resides near ~1.3630–1.3653, with deeper backing around ~1.3599–1.3646 territory from recent intraday lows.
Technical verdict
Technically, GBP/USD exhibits neutral to mildly bullish tendencies in the short term. Price structure shows consolidation with potential upside if resistance zones break, while downside support levels offer risk thresholds for corrective moves.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~1.3630 – 1.3653 (support) | 1.3684 → 1.3774 | Below 1.3599 |
| Sell on rallies | ~1.3684 – 1.3707 (resistance) | 1.3650 → 1.3630 | Above 1.3862 |
| Breakout play | Above ~1.3774 | 1.3862 → higher | Below 1.3684 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: GBP/USD is expected to range‑trade between defined support and resistance zones, with mild upside bias balanced by dollar influences. Risk management should emphasise tight invalidation levels if breakouts fail to confirm.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Oscillation across current pivot support and resistance | ~1.3630 – 1.3774 |
| Bullish extension | Break above resistance with renewed sterling demand | 1.3774 – 1.3862+ |
| Bearish correction | Rejection at resistance and USD strength re‑emerges | 1.3650 → 1.3599+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Fundamentals for GBP/USD are mixed with a slight positive tilt for the pound, supported by relatively high UK inflation and delayed BoE rate cuts, offset by sustained US dollar strength.
Technical verdict: Technically, the pair shows neutral to mildly bullish consolidation, with clear support and resistance levels guiding short‑term action.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term GBP/USD outlook favours tactical range‑based trading, with opportunities to buy near support and carefully target resistance breakouts, moderated by disciplined risk management around key invalidation levels.
GBPUSD Chart
Economic News relating to GBPUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURGBP Analysis 02/02/2026 @ 20:45 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
EUR/GBP remains influenced by relative economic performance and monetary policy expectations between the eurozone and the United Kingdom. Recent data flows from both regions have been mixed, with neither the European Central Bank (ECB) nor the Bank of England (BoE) delivering markedly divergent policy guidance, leading to muted directional pressure on the cross. Markets have remained sensitive to macroeconomic data such as GDP growth, inflation differentials and labour market statistics from both economies, which continue to shape expectations for future rate moves. Survey‑based indicators and risk sentiment also weigh on the pair, as broader market volatility can affect demand for both currencies in cross‑rate trading.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for EUR/GBP remain moderately balanced with a tilt toward modest downside pressure on the euro, as economic signals and central bank guidance have so far offered limited impetus for sharp trend continuation. Mixed data releases and cautious monetary policy expectations from both ECB and BoE suggest range‑bound behaviour persists.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~0.8640 GBP per EUR based on live exchange rate data.
Technical indicators present a largely neutral to slightly bearish structure around the current price, with the pair showing consolidation beneath recent resistance levels. Several technical platforms identify sell bias elements including moving average alignment and oscillator readings, though shorter‑term signals have shown mixed momentum as price oscillates within a defined range.
Approximate support and resistance levels:
| Level | Price (Approx) (GBP) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~0.8683 – 0.8691 |
| R1 | ~0.8672 – 0.8680 |
| Current Spot Price | ~0.8630 – 0.8640 |
| S1 | ~0.8618 – 0.8631 |
| S2 | ~0.8600 – 0.8610 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance resides in the ~0.8672–0.8680 zone, with broader resistance toward ~0.8683–0.8691 identified from pivot and historical price congestion. Support: Immediate support clusters around ~0.8618–0.8631, reflecting recent lower bounds of consolidation, while deeper support near ~0.8600–0.8610 buffers more extended downside attempts.
Technical verdict
Technically, EUR/GBP is neutral to mildly bearish in the short term, trading within a defined range with downside bias suggested by some indicators. Clearer direction may emerge once price breaks beyond either resistance overhead or support below.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~0.8618 – 0.8631 (support) | 0.8672 → 0.8683 | Below 0.8600 |
| Sell on rallies | ~0.8672 – 0.8680 (resistance) | 0.8631 → 0.8618 | Above 0.8691 |
| Breakout play | Above ~0.8683 | 0.8691 → higher | Below 0.8672 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: EUR/GBP is likely to remain range‑bound between established support and resistance levels, with the potential for mild bearish continuation if resistance holds and supportive fundamental catalysts remain absent. Traders should manage risk by defining invalidation levels beyond the immediate support/resistance boundaries to contain exposure.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (GBP) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Oscillation between current support and resistance | ~0.8618 – 0.8683 |
| Bullish extension | Break above resistance with renewed euro demand | 0.8683 – 0.8700+ |
| Bearish correction | Rejection at resistance or strong pound performance | 0.8631 → 0.8600+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: The fundamental backdrop for EUR/GBP is largely balanced with a tilt toward modest euro downside pressure, as economic and policy drivers from both regions offer limited directional dominance.
Technical verdict: Technically, the pair shows a neutral to mildly bearish bias, trading between well‑defined support and resistance zones, with mixed momentum signals.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for EUR/GBP favours range trading, with tactical opportunities around support and resistance pivots. Breakouts beyond these critical levels could define the next trend direction, while disciplined risk management remains essential in a mixed fundamental and technical environment.
EURGBP Chart
Economic News relating to EURGBP
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
GBPJPY Analysis 02/02/2026 @ 21:00 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The GBP/JPY exchange rate remains heavily influenced by monetary policy divergence between the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and broader risk sentiment in financial markets. Persistent weakness in the Japanese yen has continued to support GBP/JPY at elevated levels amid ongoing speculation that the BoJ will maintain an accommodative stance, slowing any near‑term tightening. Recent data and political developments in Japan have added to this dynamic, with expectations for delayed rate hikes taking shape, which exerts downward pressure on the yen relative to risk‑sensitive currencies like the pound.
In the UK, mixed economic indicators including inflation and growth figures have influenced sterling’s performance, with markets weighing prospects for the BoE’s policy trajectory. Risk‑on sentiment tends to benefit higher yielding or risk‑linked currencies such as GBP, while risk‑off episodes can prompt safe‑haven flows into JPY, moderating advances in GBP/JPY.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals remain supportive of GBP/JPY at elevated levels, underpinned by a sustained yen weakness narrative and central bank divergence. However, broader macroeconomic inputs and risk sentiment introduce volatility risk, making sharp directional conviction less certain.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~212.4 JPY per GBP based on live rate feeds.
Technical evidence points to a generally bullish structure in the medium term, with upward momentum remaining intact and momentum indicators such as moving averages and RSI signalling strength in favour of buyers. Daily technical views also highlight that the broader uptrend from multi‑year lows remains in progress.
Approximate support and resistance levels:
| Level | Price (Approx) (JPY) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~214.29 – 215.00 |
| R1 | ~212.50 – 213.00 |
| Current Spot Price | ~211.80 – 212.40 |
| S1 | ~210.00 – 211.00 |
| S2 | ~208.00 – 209.00 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance is clustered around the ~212.50–213.00 zone, with a broader barrier near ~214.29–215.00 seen in recent technical updates. Support: Key support lies around ~210.00–211.00, while deeper backing emerges near ~208.00–209.00, associated with prior consolidation lows.
Technical verdict
Technically, GBP/JPY exhibits a bullish to neutral bias in the short term, trading above key moving averages with momentum indicators supporting higher prices, yet encountering defined resistance levels that may cap near‑term advance.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~210.00 – 211.00 (support) | 212.50 → 214.29 | Below 208.00 |
| Sell on rallies | ~212.50 – 213.00 (resistance) | 211.00 → 210.00 | Above 215.00 |
| Breakout play | Above ~214.29 | 215.00 → higher | Below 212.50 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: GBP/JPY is expected to continue consolidating within a broader bullish structure, with incremental rallies facing resistance around key zones. Risk management should emphasise protecting against sudden yen strength or shifts in central bank guidance.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (JPY) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Price oscillates between key support and resistance | ~210.00 – 214.29 |
| Bullish breakout | Break above key resistance with continued yen weakness | 214.29 – 215.50+ |
| Bearish correction | Rejection at resistance and risk flows into safe‑haven | 211.00 → 208.00+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Fundamentals for GBP/JPY are supportive of elevated levels, with central bank divergence and yen weakness as primary drivers, although macro data and risk sentiment pose intermittent volatility risks.
Technical verdict: Short‑term technicals show bullish to neutral momentum, with the pair trading above key moving averages and encountering clear resistance levels that may constrain upside.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for GBP/JPY favours tactical bullish range‑based strategies, buying near support and targeting resistance, while remaining vigilant for potential corrective swings driven by changes in risk sentiment or economic data.
GBPJPY Chart
Economic News relating to GBPJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
XAGUSD Analysis 02/02/2026 @ 21:16 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The XAG/USD (Silver) market continues to grapple with sharp volatility following an unprecedented surge and rapid correction in early 2026. In late January, silver prices hit record highs above $121 per troy ounce driven largely by speculative retail demand and “fear of missing out”, particularly from Chinese and retail investors. This speculative rally lacked strong fundamental backing, making the commodity vulnerable to sharp reversals.
Recent economic data from the United States—including stronger than expected releases—has boosted risk appetite and strengthened the US dollar, reducing demand for precious metals priced in USD. Markets are also reassessing monetary policy expectations amid the nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair, which has contributed to bearish pressure on silver. Safe‑haven demand has diminished amid broader equity strength and a softer bid for metals.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for XAG/USD have shifted negative, with speculative excess unwinding rapidly, improved risk sentiment reducing safe‑haven flows, and the strength of the US dollar weighing on silver demand. The lack of solid central bank buying—as seen in gold—adds to cautious fundamental positioning.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~80.39 USD per ounce. Recent price action shows a significant decline from record highs, with silver trading around $80–$83 after selling pressure accelerated due to the correction from speculative extremes.
Technical indicators point to bearish momentum, with breakouts below prior uptrend levels and RSI readings in lower territory signalling short‑term weakness. Price has fallen below key moving averages, confirming a shift away from the parabolic rally structure that characterised January.
Approximate support and resistance levels:
| Level | Price (Approx) (USD) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~90.00 – 92.00 |
| R1 | ~85.00 – 87.50 |
| Current Spot Price | ~79.00 – 82.50 |
| S1 | ~75.60 – 77.00 |
| S2 | ~71.20 – 73.50 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance clusters around the $85.00–$87.50 zone where recent consolidation attempts have stalled, with broader resistance near $90.00–$92.00 representing a recovery threshold. Support: Immediate support lies near $75.60–$77.00, with deeper support around the $71.20–$73.50 area that was tested during recent sell‑offs.
Technical verdict
Technically, XAG/USD is tilted bearish in the short term. Momentum has shifted from the strong uptrend into corrective territory, with lower highs and lower lows forming since the record peak. Support levels will be key for any recovery attempts.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~75.60 – 77.00 (support) | 85.00 → 90.00 | Below 71.20 |
| Sell on rallies | ~85.00 – 87.50 (resistance) | 79.00 → 75.60 | Above 92.00 |
| Breakout play | Above ~90.00 | 92.00 → higher | Below 85.00 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: XAG/USD is expected to trade within the current corrective range, with resistance capping upside and support zones guiding downside targeting. Volatility is likely to remain elevated as the market digests the swift unwinding of the prior speculative surge.
Traders should employ strict risk controls given the sharp price swings experienced recently, and base positions around key pivot structures rather than trend‑following assumptions.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Consolidation between support and resistance zones | ~75.60 – 87.50 |
| Bearish extension | Breakdown below key support on renewed selling pressure | 75.60 – 71.20+ |
| Bullish retracement | Rebound from support with mild safe‑haven demand | 82.50 → 90.00+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Fundamentals have turned negative for XAG/USD in the short term, with speculative excess unwinding, reduced safe‑haven demand, and stronger US data influencing sell‑off dynamics.
Technical verdict: The technical picture is bearish, with price breaking down from parabolic structures and momentum indicators supporting further corrective bias.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for XAG/USD favours range‑based, correction‑oriented strategies, with priority on trading around key support and resistance levels. Structured entries on dips and rallies, coupled with disciplined invalidation levels, are recommended in light of prevailing volatility and mixed fundamental signals.
XAGUSD Chart
Economic News relating to XAGUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
