secundum Liber Abaci
Praemonitus, Praemunitus
Fibbinarchie
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
USDCHF Analysis 02/02/2026 @ 13:00 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
USDCHF has reached critically oversold levels, trading at 0.7758, marking the pair’s weakest position since January 2015. The Swiss franc surged past the 0.77 per USD threshold in late January 2026, representing the currency’s strongest performance in over a decade. This extraordinary CHF strength reflects a convergence of structural USD weakness and persistent safe-haven demand amid global economic uncertainty.
US Economic Conditions: The Federal Reserve held its key interest rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% at its January 2026 meeting, pausing after three consecutive quarter-point cuts in September, October, and December 2025. Chair Powell stated that the Fed views policy as being in “a good place” despite core PCE inflation running at 2.8% year-over-year. The Fed expects tariff-related inflation to peak in mid-2026 before moderating. GDP growth remains robust, with Q3 2025 advancing at 4.4% and Q4 tracking at 5.4% according to Atlanta Fed estimates. However, hiring has slowed significantly, with job gains declining to approximately 50,000 monthly, whilst unemployment has shown signs of stabilisation. Market futures price in at most two rate reductions in 2026, with some Fed officials expecting continued policy restraint due to elevated inflation concerns.
Swiss Economic Conditions: The Swiss National Bank maintained its policy rate at 0% at its December 2025 meeting, explicitly ruling out a return to negative interest rate territory despite inflation falling to 0.0% in November 2025 and edging up to just 0.1% in December 2025. SNB President Martin Schlegel confirmed the central bank’s preference for foreign exchange intervention over negative rates, stating that negative rates carry “undesirable effects.” The SNB projects average inflation of just 0.3% for 2026, 0.6% for 2027, and 0.8% by Q3 2028, remaining well below the 2% stability threshold. Swiss GDP contracted in Q3 2025, primarily due to pharmaceutical sector adjustments following front-loaded exports to the US ahead of tariff implementation. The SNB expects GDP growth of approximately 1.5% in 2025 and around 1% in 2026, with unemployment anticipated to rise modestly.
Interest Rate Differential: The Fed-SNB rate differential stands at 3.50%-3.75%, but the trajectory favours continued CHF appreciation. With the Fed on hold and markets pricing limited easing in 2026, whilst the SNB maintains rates at 0% with no expectation of policy changes until potentially H2 2027, the yield advantage for USD is eroding in relative terms. The SNB’s explicit rejection of negative rates removes a key potential support for USD, whilst ongoing tariff inflation concerns in the US complicate the Fed’s ability to ease policy aggressively.
Safe-Haven Dynamics and Political Factors: The franc’s safe-haven status has intensified following heightened US political uncertainty. Economic policy uncertainty stemming from the US administration, Treasury Secretary statements explicitly targeting a weaker dollar, and an ongoing Department of Justice investigation into the Federal Reserve have combined to severely undermine USD sentiment. The US Treasury’s signal that it will purposefully pursue dollar weakness represents a rare explicit devaluation stance. Simultaneously, Japanese officials’ pledges of expansionary fiscal policy have limited traditional safe-haven demand for the yen, channelling flows disproportionately into the Swiss franc. Global investors have sought refuge in CHF amid trade policy volatility, particularly following the US administration’s tariff announcements.
Fundamental / Economic Verdict
Strongly bearish for USDCHF, approaching critical extreme levels. The fundamental backdrop supports continued Swiss franc strength, though positioning has reached historically extreme levels that may limit further downside in the immediate term. The combination of ultra-low Swiss inflation (0.1% in December 2025), the SNB’s explicit rejection of negative rates, persistent safe-haven demand, deliberate US Treasury dollar weakness policy, and political uncertainty surrounding Fed independence creates an overwhelmingly bearish environment. The SNB’s stated preference for FX intervention signals potential policy resistance only at extreme CHF strength levels, with current levels approaching those thresholds. Near-term fundamentals favour consolidation rather than further aggressive CHF appreciation, though medium-term pressures remain tilted towards USD weakness.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
USDCHF has reached critically oversold technical levels at 0.7758, trading at multi-year lows and testing the January 2015 support region around 0.7630-0.7700. The pair has declined 14.77% over the past year and 2.36% over the past month, reflecting sustained bearish momentum. Recent price action shows a modest bounce from the extreme low of 0.7631 reached on 28 January 2026, with the pair recovering approximately 125 pips.
Chart Pattern: The pair remains trapped within a well-defined Channel Down formation on the monthly timeframe, which has been in place since the November 2022 high. A recent triangle consolidation pattern formed at extreme lows, with price attempting to break above the descending trendline near 0.7880. This breakout attempt has failed, with price retreating back towards the lower boundary of the triangle. The 1-month RSI has reached deeply oversold territory, historically a precondition for medium-term reversals, though timing remains uncertain.
Moving Averages: Price trades well below all major moving averages. The 50-day SMA currently sits at approximately 0.7921, the 20-day EMA near 0.7995, and the 200-day SMA at 0.7987. This configuration confirms the dominant bearish trend structure. The distance between current price and the 50-day SMA (approximately 163 pips or 2.1%) represents an extreme deviation, typically associated with near-term exhaustion.
Momentum Indicators: Technical oscillators present mixed signals reflecting extreme oversold conditions. The daily RSI sits at approximately 28-30, indicating severe oversold momentum. However, the ADX remains elevated near 53-54, signalling that the downtrend retains strong directional conviction despite oversold readings. A notable bullish divergence has emerged on the weekly RSI, with the indicator forming higher lows whilst price has made lower lows since April 2025. This divergence pattern historically precedes significant trend reversals, though it can persist for extended periods in strong trends.
Support and Resistance Levels:
| Level | Price | Description |
|---|---|---|
| R2 | 0.7975 | Failed breakout high / 50-day SMA confluence |
| R1 | 0.7851 | 38.2% Fibonacci retracement / pullback resistance |
| Current Spot Price | 0.7758 | Near 11-year lows / testing January 2015 support zone |
| S1 | 0.7666 | Recent swing low / psychological support |
| S2 | 0.7631 | 28 January 2026 low / 11-year support / January 2015 cluster |
Market Sentiment: Technical indicators show conflicting signals. Shorter-term oscillators register extreme oversold conditions with some indicators flashing “Strong Buy” signals based purely on mean-reversion potential. However, trend-following indicators maintain “Sell” ratings across all timeframes (daily, weekly, monthly). The 1-week technical rating signals “Sell” and the 1-month rating confirms “Sell”, reflecting the persistent bearish trend despite tactical bounce potential. Notably, 14 technical indicators show bearish signals versus 12 showing bullish signals, indicating near-equilibrium at current levels.
Volume and Volatility Analysis: The pair exhibited significant volatility during late January, with the largest 24-hour movement occurring on 27 January 2026 (a 0.541% decrease). Recent volatility readings show a modest 0.46% rating, suggesting the extreme moves may be stabilising. Daily trading ranges have compressed following the sharp decline, indicating potential consolidation.
Technical Verdict
Neutral to cautiously bullish on a tactical basis; structurally bearish medium-term. USDCHF has reached extreme oversold levels at 0.7758, trading at 11-year lows with technical indicators flashing maximum bearish momentum exhaustion. The weekly RSI bullish divergence, deeply oversold daily conditions, and proximity to major long-term support (0.7630-0.7700 zone) suggest high probability of a corrective bounce towards 0.7850-0.7975. However, the broader technical structure remains decisively bearish, with price below all significant moving averages and trading within a well-defined descending channel. Any recovery should be viewed as corrective within the dominant downtrend unless price can achieve a sustained break above 0.7975-0.8000, which would require fundamental catalysts not currently evident.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup Type | Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long (Mean Reversion) | 0.7740-0.7760 | 0.7620 | 0.7850 / 0.7920 | Extreme oversold conditions at 11-year lows; targeting 38.2% Fib retracement |
| Short (Trend Following) | 0.7850-0.7875 | 0.7930 | 0.7700 / 0.7630 | Fade rallies into resistance; resumption of primary downtrend |
Intraday Bias: Cautiously bullish for mean-reversion trades. The pair sits at extreme technical and fundamental lows, suggesting elevated probability of a short-squeeze or technical bounce. Immediate resistance lies at 0.7800-0.7850, whilst support anchors at 0.7630. Risk-reward favours long positions at current levels with tight stops below 0.7630, targeting a recovery towards 0.7850-0.7920. However, traders should be prepared for renewed selling pressure at resistance levels.
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base Case (55% probability): USDCHF initiates a corrective bounce over the next 1-2 weeks, recovering from extreme oversold levels towards the 0.7850-0.7920 resistance zone. This bounce reflects technical exhaustion, short-covering, and potential SNB verbal intervention or actual FX market operations to curb excessive franc strength. The recovery stalls at resistance as fundamental bearish factors reassert, leading to consolidation within a 0.7700-0.7920 range through mid-February.
Key Assumptions:
- SNB rhetoric emphasises discomfort with current CHF strength levels
- No further escalation of US political uncertainty or explicit dollar devaluation statements
- Fed maintains current stance with no dovish surprises
- Global risk sentiment stabilises, reducing safe-haven demand
- Technical factors (oversold conditions, positioning extremes) drive mean reversion
Risk Management:
- Position sizing must account for elevated volatility environment (recent 24h swings exceeding 50 pips)
- Long positions require stops below 0.7620 to protect against potential breakdown to 0.7450 (100% projection target)
- Short positions should only be initiated on rallies above 0.7850 with stops above 0.7930
- Avoid over-leveraging given proximity to 11-year support and potential for violent reversals
- Monitor SNB rhetoric and intervention activity closely for early warning signals
- Consider hedging USD exposure across multiple CHF-correlated pairs (EURCHF, GBPCHF)
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Probability | Price Target Range | Triggers/Catalysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corrective Bounce (Base) | 55% | 0.7850-0.7920 | • Technical oversold exhaustion triggers short-covering • SNB officials express concern over CHF strength • US political uncertainty stabilises temporarily • Stabilisation in global risk sentiment reduces safe-haven demand • Weekly RSI bullish divergence plays out |
| Consolidation / Range | 30% | 0.7700-0.7820 | • Stalemate between fundamental bearishness and technical oversold • Mixed economic data provides no clear directional catalyst • SNB refrains from intervention but monitors closely • Low volatility consolidation following extreme moves |
| Bearish Breakdown | 15% | 0.7550-0.7630 | • Renewed US political crisis or explicit Fed independence threat • Further Treasury statements targeting weaker USD • Major geopolitical shock triggers safe-haven surge • Break below 0.7630 activates stop-losses and downside projections • SNB remains on sidelines despite CHF strength |
Key Events to Monitor (Next 7 Days):
- SNB officials’ speeches and interviews regarding CHF strength and intervention readiness
- US Non-Farm Payrolls report (expected early February) – potential USD volatility catalyst
- Fed speakers’ commentary, particularly regarding political pressure and independence
- US Treasury Secretary statements on dollar policy
- Developments in DOJ investigation into Federal Reserve
- US-China trade rhetoric and tariff implementation timeline
- Swiss inflation data (next release expected in early February)
- EURUSD and EURCHF movements (correlation analysis)
Summary
USDCHF has reached a critical juncture at 0.7758, trading at 11-year lows amid an unprecedented confluence of fundamental bearish pressures and extreme technical oversold conditions. The pair now faces the classic dilemma of “oversold can become more oversold” versus “maximum pessimism equals opportunity.”
From a fundamental perspective, the bearish case remains compelling but approaching exhaustion. The Swiss National Bank’s explicit rejection of negative interest rates removes a key potential USD support mechanism, whilst projected Swiss inflation of just 0.3% in 2026 provides no impetus for policy tightening. The Federal Reserve’s pause at 3.50%-3.75%, combined with sticky inflation at 2.8%, limits aggressive easing potential and reduces the urgency of the yield differential compression narrative. However, the game-changing factors are political rather than economic: the US Treasury’s explicit dollar weakness stance, heightened political pressure on Fed independence, and persistent safe-haven demand create structural headwinds for USD.
Yet at current levels, several mitigating factors emerge. First, the SNB’s preference for FX intervention over negative rates suggests policymakers view current CHF strength levels as approaching intervention thresholds, even if not explicitly stated. Second, at 0.7758, USDCHF has retraced 100% of the 2015-2024 USD rally, satisfying major technical projections. Third, positioning is likely stretched extremely short, creating conditions for violent short-covering rallies.
Technically, the picture screams mean reversion opportunity whilst acknowledging trend persistence risk. The weekly RSI bullish divergence, daily oversold extremes (RSI 28-30), and proximity to the major 0.7630-0.7700 support cluster all argue for tactical long exposure. Historical precedent shows that 11-year lows in major currency pairs rarely break immediately on first test without consolidation. The distance of 2.1% from the 50-day moving average represents an extreme deviation typically followed by corrective moves of 100-200 pips.
Strategic Positioning: The optimal approach for the next 7 days involves tactical long positions targeting 0.7850-0.7920 with tight risk management below 0.7620. This strategy capitalises on probable mean reversion whilst respecting the dominant bearish trend. The base case anticipates a recovery towards 0.7850-0.7920 over 1-2 weeks (55% probability), driven by technical exhaustion and potential SNB verbal intervention, followed by renewed consolidation or resumption of downtrend.
Risk Considerations: The primary risk to the corrective bounce scenario is a further breakdown below 0.7630, which would activate stop-losses and potentially accelerate towards 0.7450 (next major projection). This could be triggered by renewed US political crisis, explicit Fed independence threats, major geopolitical shocks, or SNB tolerance for further CHF appreciation. Conversely, upside risks include aggressive SNB intervention (verbal or actual), stabilisation of US political uncertainty, or Fed hawkish surprises.
Medium-Term Outlook: Beyond the next 7-day tactical window, the medium-term bias remains bearish for USDCHF. The structural factors—ultra-low Swiss inflation, SNB policy stability versus potential Fed easing, safe-haven dynamics, and US dollar devaluation policy—support an eventual test of 0.7450-0.7500 on a multi-month horizon. However, the path is unlikely to be linear, with significant volatility and corrective bounces anticipated.
In conclusion, USDCHF presents a high-conviction tactical long opportunity at 0.7758 for a bounce towards 0.7850-0.7920, whilst acknowledging that medium-term fundamentals favour further USD weakness once corrective forces exhaust. Traders should approach with disciplined risk management, recognising that positions at 11-year extremes carry elevated volatility and event risk. The coming week will likely determine whether 0.7630 represents a significant inflection point or merely a temporary pause in an ongoing structural decline.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading foreign exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.
USDCHF Analysis 01/02/2026 @ 19:01 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
USD/CHF continues to reflect a broader weakness in the US dollar relative to the Swiss franc, driven by ongoing safe‑haven flows and a strong franc amid global uncertainty. Recent macro developments point to the Swiss franc appreciating toward decade‑high levels against the US dollar, underpinned by Switzerland’s political and economic stability and investor demand for havens.
The US dollar’s performance has been mixed, with weakness linked to shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy and risk sentiment, while the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) stance emphasises price stability and watching exchange rate dynamics closely. A strong franc has sometimes prompted discussions around potential SNB intervention to prevent excessive appreciation that could dampen inflation and burden exporters.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals are broadly bearish for USD/CHF. Persistent franc strength, combined with a relatively softer US dollar and safe‑haven demand, has skewed the pair lower, suggesting continued downside pressure unless the US dollar reasserts strength through economic data or Fed policy cues.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~0.7730 CHF per USD.
Technical analysis indicates dominant bearish sentiment for USD/CHF, with price action showing repeated failure to hold above key resistance levels and a broader downtrend that has been in place over recent months. Moving averages and momentum tools largely signal sell bias, reinforcing downward pressure.
Approximate support and resistance levels:
| Level | Price (Approx) (CHF) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~0.7792 – 0.7830 |
| R1 | ~0.7725 – 0.7760 |
| Current Spot Price | ~0.7680 – 0.7740 |
| S1 | ~0.7600 – 0.7640 |
| S2 | ~0.7380 – 0.7440 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance currently sits near 0.7725–0.7760, with a cluster higher around 0.7792–0.7830 proving difficult for USD/CHF to break, maintaining bearish control. Support: Immediate support resides near 0.7600–0.7640, followed by deeper technical support around 0.7380–0.7440, where prior breakouts and trend projections target lower levels.
Technical verdict
Technically, the short‑term outlook remains bearish. The pair continues to struggle below resistance, with multiple indicators, including moving averages and recent lower lows, aligning with a trend toward further downside, particularly if key support levels break.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sell on rallies | ~0.7725 – 0.7760 (resistance) | 0.7640 → 0.7600 | Above 0.7830 |
| Buy on dips | ~0.7600 – 0.7640 (support) | 0.7725 → 0.7792 | Below 0.7560 |
| Breakout sell | Below ~0.7600 | 0.7440 → 0.7380 | Above 0.7640 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: USD/CHF is expected to remain under downward pressure within its established downtrend, with corrective rallies capped by resistance bands. Support levels may provide temporary buying interest, but overall bias is towards additional declines, with prudent risk management around spikes or interventions.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (CHF) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Price oscillates between resistance and support | ~0.7600 – 0.7792 |
| Bearish extension | Renewed franc strength or dollar softness | 0.7600 → 0.7380 |
| Bullish correction | Dollar resurgence lifts pair | 0.7725 → 0.7830 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Fundamentals tilt bearish for USD/CHF, as a strong safe‑haven Swiss franc and relatively weak US dollar drive downward pressure.
Technical verdict: Technically, the pair remains bearish, with resistance levels capping rallies and a trend structure aligned toward lower prices absent a shift in macro drivers.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for USD/CHF favours continued downside, with strategic sells on rallies and cautious buys near support, underscored by disciplined risk controls amid volatility and potential intervention narratives.
USDCHF Chart
Economic News relating to USDCHF
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
XAUUSD Analysis 01/02/2026 @ 19:18 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Gold prices (XAU/USD) have been highly sensitive to macroeconomic and geopolitical drivers in early 2026, with record‑breaking moves and sharp corrections reflecting shifting expectations around monetary policy, safe‑haven demand and US dollar momentum. Bullion has at times traded near all‑time highs as investors sought shelter from economic uncertainty and weak dollar dynamics, supported by sustained investor demand and central bank accumulation.
However, recent announcements regarding the US Federal Reserve leadership have triggered notable sell‑offs, driven by perceived hawkish policy expectations that reduce gold’s appeal as a non‑yielding asset. These swings illustrate how policy uncertainty, inflation expectations and safe‑haven flows continue to shape gold’s fundamental backdrop.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for XAU/USD are mixed but tilted toward continued volatility. Structural support from safe‑haven and investment demand exists, yet gold remains vulnerable to monetary policy expectations and US dollar strength, resulting in sharp directional shifts.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: Approximately $5,394 per ounce following a recent peak and pullback from record highs.
Technical analysis indicates a near‑term corrective phase within a broader constructive trend. Price indicators show momentum cooling from overextended levels, while key support and resistance zones suggest traders are assessing whether the pullback resolves or extends.
Approximate support and resistance levels:
| Level | Price (Approx) (USD) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~$5,600 – $5,650 |
| R1 | ~$5,300 – $5,420 |
| Current Spot Price | ~$5,350 – $5,400 |
| S1 | ~$4,780 – $4,850 |
| S2 | ~$4,600 – $4,650 |
Resistance: Immediate resistance clusters around $5,300–$5,420, with higher ceilings near prior all‑time peaks $5,600–$5,650. Support: Key support zones lie near $4,780–$4,850, with deeper structural support around $4,600–$4,650 where recent pullbacks have found buying interest.
Technical verdict
Technically, the short‑term outlook is neutral to cautiously bullish within a larger constructive framework. Gold is showing corrective dynamics after extended rallies, but the broader trend and demand drivers continue to lend structural support, making key technical levels important guides for the next move.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~$4,780 – $4,850 (support) | $5,300 → $5,600 | Below $4,600 |
| Sell on rallies | ~$5,300 – $5,420 (resistance) | $4,850 → $4,780 | Above $5,650 |
| Breakout buy | Above ~$5,600 | $5,650 → new highs | Below $5,300 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: Expect volatile consolidation within structural uptrend parameters, with gold oscillating between support and resistance zones. Traders may favour accumulating on strong support and tapping into resistance, while maintaining disciplined stops as sentiment can pivot on economic news and policy developments.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Consolidation | Price oscillates within range | ~$4,780 – $5,420 |
| Bullish continuation | Renewed upside amid risk or policy easing | $5,420 – $5,650+ |
| Extended correction | Dollar strength or hawkish cues deepen pullback | $4,780 – $4,600 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: The fundamental outlook is mixed and volatile, supported by safe‑haven demand and investor interest, but highly sensitive to monetary policy expectations and US dollar dynamics.
Technical verdict: Technically, XAU/USD displays neutral to cautiously bullish characteristics, with price undergoing a corrective phase but retaining structural support and defined resistance and support levels guiding near‑term biases.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term XAU/USD outlook emphasises volatility amid a broadly constructive trend, suggesting opportunities on support‑zone buys and resistance‑area sells, with disciplined risk management imperative due to the influence of macroeconomic and policy drivers on price behaviour.
XAUUSD Chart
Economic News relating to XAUUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURUSD Analysis 01/02/2026 @ 19:31 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
EUR/USD reflects ongoing interplay between euro‑area economic performance, European Central Bank (ECB) policy dynamics and the relative strength of the US dollar. The euro has strengthened notably against the US dollar, reaching key psychological levels near 1.20, driven in part by broader US dollar weakness and supportive euro‑area economic data.
ECB policymakers are increasingly focused on the implications of a stronger euro for inflation and export competitiveness, hinting that monetary policy may remain accommodative if the currency’s appreciation persists.
Conversely, US Federal Reserve policy and strong data have at times supported the US dollar, especially when expectations shift around interest rates and inflation outcomes, keeping EUR/USD under pressure at times.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals are mixed but with a slight bias toward euro strength. The euro’s gains against the US dollar reflect weaker dollar dynamics, but ECB concerns about excessive appreciation and divergent central bank policies inject caution into the outlook.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~1.1848 USD per EUR.
Technically, EUR/USD has shown consolidation below recent highs around 1.2080–1.20 alongside bearish retracements and oscillation around key support zones. Indicators have pointed to mixed momentum, where longer‑term trend measures still lean bullish while short‑term momentum and break levels influence trading bias.
Approximate support and resistance levels:
| Level | Price (Approx) (USD) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~1.2000 – 1.2080 |
| R1 | ~1.1890 – 1.1940 |
| Current Spot Price | ~1.1820 – 1.1900 |
| S1 | ~1.1750 – 1.1800 |
| S2 | ~1.1650 – 1.1700 |
Resistance: Key resistance emerges around 1.1890–1.1940, with higher ceilings near the 1.2000 psychological band where upside momentum has encountered pause. Support: Near‑term support exists around 1.1750–1.1800, while deeper support sits near 1.1650–1.1700, aligned with prior consolidation lows.
Technical verdict
Technically, the short‑term outlook is neutral to mildly bearish. Consolidation beneath recent highs and mixed momentum readings suggest limited immediate directional conviction, with key technical levels serving as pivotal guides for breakout or breakdown scenarios.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~1.1750 – 1.1800 (support) | 1.1890 → 1.2000 | Below 1.1650 |
| Sell on rallies | ~1.1890 – 1.1940 (resistance) | 1.1800 → 1.1750 | Above 1.2080 |
| Breakout buy | Above ~1.2000 | 1.2080 → new highs | Below 1.1890 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: Expect continued consolidation with range‑bound behaviour, where EUR/USD oscillates between defined support and resistance. Traders may prefer support buy and resistance sell strategies, incorporating disciplined risk controls given potential volatility around macro releases and central bank communications.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | EUR/USD trades within established zones | ~1.1750 – 1.2000 |
| Bullish breakout | Renewed euro strength lifts pair above resistance | 1.2000 → 1.2080+ |
| Bearish pullback | Dollar strength or risk aversion deepens pullback | 1.1750 → 1.1650+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Fundamentals point to mixed forces with a mild euro bias, driven by relative currency strengths, central bank divergence and macro data differences.
Technical verdict: Technically, the pair’s short‑term profile is neutral to mildly bearish, dominated by consolidation below recent highs and key technical thresholds.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term EUR/USD outlook is balanced within a defined range, favouring support buys and resistance sells, with potential for breakouts if drivers around central bank policy or macro surprises emerge. Disciplined risk management remains essential amid shifting market sentiment.
EURUSD Chart
Economic News relating to EURUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
CHFJPY Analysis 01/02/2026 @ 19:45 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The CHF/JPY cross rate reflects dynamics between two safe‑haven currencies—Swiss franc (CHF) and Japanese yen (JPY)—both sensitive to global risk sentiment, central bank policy and interest rate differentials. Recent market developments show that the yen has been under pressure due to shifts in Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy expectations and weaker JPY performance against major currencies, which can support CHF/JPY upside when CHF outperforms JPY.
Conversely, the Swiss franc remains a strong haven and tends to appreciate in risk‑off episodes, especially when global uncertainty rises, as Switzerland’s economic fundamentals and risk‑off flows underpin demand for CHF. While specific fresh fundamental releases for CHF/JPY are limited, broader currency market trends point to cross‑currency moves driven primarily by relative central bank stance, JPY weakness and risk sentiment.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for CHF/JPY are moderately supportive of CHF strength versus JPY, but mixed overall. Broad JPY weakness against other currencies and safe‑haven demand for CHF provide some tailwinds, but lack of direct catalysts and central bank policy divergences mean fundamental drivers may be less clear‑cut and susceptible to global risk cues.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~200.24 JPY per CHF.
Across recent technical indicators, CHF/JPY shows mixed momentum with both bullish and neutral signals. Moving averages and some technical platforms indicate a buy‑weighted structure, but oscillators like RSI are around neutral levels, suggesting limited immediate directional conviction.
Approximate support and resistance levels:
| Level | Price (Approx) (JPY) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~202.50 – 204.00 |
| R1 | ~200.50 – 201.50 |
| Current Spot Price | ~200.20 – 200.30 |
| S1 | ~197.50 – 198.50 |
| S2 | ~195.00 – 196.50 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance lies around 200.50–201.50, with further upside bands near 202.50–204.00 where prior highs clustered.
Support: Immediate support is seen around 197.50–198.50, while deeper support levels reside near 195.00–196.50, marking areas where corrective buying could emerge after pullbacks.
Technical verdict
Technically, the short‑term outlook for CHF/JPY is neutral to mildly bullish. Mixed indicators—neutral RSI alongside buy signals from moving averages—suggest that while upside structures exist, momentum is not decisively strong. Clear breaks above resistance or below support will be key in determining the next directional phase.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~197.50 – 198.50 (support) | 200.50 → 202.50 | Below 195.00 |
| Sell on rallies | ~200.50 – 201.50 (resistance) | 198.50 → 197.50 | Above 204.00 |
| Breakout buy | Above ~202.50 | 204.00 → new highs | Below 200.50 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: Expect CHF/JPY to consolidate with mild bullish bias, oscillating between defined support and resistance. Traders may favour accumulating on dips near key support bands with stops below deeper support and cautious profit‑taking near resistance zones given mixed momentum.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (JPY) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Pair trades sideways with limited breakouts | ~197.50 – 202.50 |
| Bullish breakout | CHF strength or JPY weakness accelerates gains | 202.50 – 204.00+ |
| Bearish pullback | Risk‑off flows reverse CHF gains or JPY strength returns | 197.50 – 195.00+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Fundamental drivers are moderately supportive of CHF versus JPY, reflecting broad currency trends, but without strong direct catalysts specific to the pair.
Technical verdict: Technically, CHF/JPY displays a neutral to mildly bullish profile, with defined support and resistance bands and mixed momentum indicators.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for CHF/JPY is cautiously constructive, favouring support‑zone buys and measured profit‑targets near resistance, with careful risk management necessary amid mixed technical signals and fundamental ambiguity.
CHFJPY Chart
Economic News relating to CHFJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURJPY Analysis 01/02/2026 @ 20:01 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
EUR/JPY is influenced by relative monetary policy, risk sentiment and currency strength dynamics between the euro and yen. The Japanese yen has shown strength at times due to hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and intervention risk, while the euro’s performance reflects European Central Bank (ECB) policy considerations and broader euro‑area macro data. Recent BoJ commentary emphasising concern about sharp yen moves underscores potential volatility for yen crosses.
Macroeconomic releases from the Eurozone and Japan, such as inflation and gross domestic product data, will continue to dictate short‑term sentiment, with carry trade dynamics and interest rate outlooks crucial to near‑term currency flows.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals are mixed, with yen strength underpinned by BoJ hawkish cues and intervention risk, against euro resilience supported by ECB policy and euro‑area data. The balance of these factors creates a cautious backdrop and potential for swings in EUR/JPY.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~183.3–183.9 JPY per EUR.
Technical indicators across multiple platforms suggest EUR/JPY consolidating after recent highs, with momentum neither strongly bullish nor bearish in the very short term. Daily moving averages exhibit a neutral bias, while RSI readings and pivot‑based support/resistance frameworks indicate an equilibrium zone with potential for both corrective pullbacks and resumed upside.
Approximate support and resistance levels:
| Level | Price (Approx) (JPY) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~186.3 – 186.9 |
| R1 | ~184.5 – 185.2 |
| Current Spot Price | ~183.3 – 183.9 |
| S1 | ~182.0 – 182.8 |
| S2 | ~180.0 – 181.0 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance clusters near 184.5–185.2, with stronger ceilings around 186.3–186.9 where prior highs have been tested. Support: Immediate support lies near 182.0–182.8, backed by deeper support down toward 180.0–181.0, where buyers have previously stepped in.
Technical verdict
Technically, the short‑term outlook for EUR/JPY is neutral to cautiously positive. Consolidation below recent peaks, balanced moving average signals and clearly defined support/resistance levels suggest range‑bound behaviour with a slight bias towards continuation of longer‑term uptrend, provided key support holds.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~182.0 – 182.8 (support) | 184.5 → 186.3 | Below 180.0 |
| Sell on rallies | ~184.5 – 185.2 (resistance) | 182.8 → 182.0 | Above 186.9 |
| Breakout buy | Above ~186.3 | 186.9 → higher highs | Below 184.5 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: Expect range‑bound trading between support and resistance levels, with priority on accumulating near support around 182.0–182.8 and carefully trimming positions into the 184.5–186.3 resistance band. Volatility could increase around macro announcements from Japan or the euro‑area.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (JPY) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Pair trades sideways | ~182.0 – 186.3 |
| Bullish breakout | Upside resumes on momentum and weaker yen | 186.3 – 187.5+ |
| Bearish pullback | Yen strength or risk aversion deepens pullback | 182.0 → 180.0+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Fundamentals are mixed, with yen influences from BoJ policy and intervention risk balanced against euro resilience amid ECB stance and data flows.
Technical verdict: Technically, the pair exhibits neutral to cautiously positive characteristics, with consolidated price action and well‑defined support/resistance zones guiding near‑term movement.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term EUR/JPY outlook is balanced within a range, with support‑based buys and resistance‑area sells offering tactical opportunities. Traders should maintain disciplined risk management given the potential for macro‑driven volatility surrounding currency policy signals and economic releases.
EURJPY Chart
Economic News relating to EURJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
USDJPY Analysis 01/02/2026 @ 20:15 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The USD/JPY exchange rate remains heavily influenced by monetary policy divergence, risk sentiment and currency intervention speculation. In recent sessions the pair has slid below the mid‑150s level as yen demand has strengthened amid hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), intervention risk and a softer US dollar backdrop. Reports suggest the BoJ’s upgraded inflation and GDP views and threats of yen support have bolstered JPY demand, putting pressure on USD/JPY levels.
At the same time, the US dollar has weakened broadly, reaching multi‑year lows against major peers, adding further headwinds for USD/JPY. Ongoing discourse around coordinated FX action to stabilise the yen alongside uncertainty over US Federal Reserve policy and rate expectations continues to shape the fundamental outlook.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals are tilted towards yen strength and USD softness. Increasing BoJ hawkish cues, intervention talk and a softer broad dollar environment suggest continued downside risks for USD/JPY absent stronger US economic catalysts.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~¥154.75 per USD.
Technically, USD/JPY has shown consolidative price action with potential bearish bias beneath key resistance levels. Recent technical analyses indicate the pair remains capped under a resistance around 154.8, while a break lower could signal continuation of the recent correction from higher levels. Momentum indicators hover in neutral ranges, implying limited near‑term conviction without a breakout or breakdown.
Approximate support and resistance levels:
| Level | Price (Approx) (JPY) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~156.00 – 156.60 |
| R1 | ~154.50 – 154.86 |
| Current Spot Price | ~154.70 – 154.80 |
| S1 | ~152.00 – 152.90 |
| S2 | ~150.00 – 151.50 |
Resistance: Immediate ceilings have formed near 154.50–154.86, with higher hurdles near 156.00–156.60. Support: Near‑term support bands lie around 152.00–152.90, while deeper support sits in the 150.00–151.50 area, where corrective buying may emerge.
Technical verdict
Technically, the short‑term outlook is neutral to mildly bearish. Price action under resistance, mixed momentum and a consolidative structure hint at capped upside and continued range pressure, with key technical zones critical for future direction.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~152.00 – 152.90 (support) | 154.50 → 156.00 | Below 150.00 |
| Sell on rallies | ~154.50 – 154.86 (resistance) | 152.90 → 152.00 | Above 156.60 |
| Breakout sell | Below ~152.00 | 151.50 → 150.00 | Above 154.50 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: Expect range‑bound trading with a mild bearish tilt, where USD/JPY oscillates between established support and resistance. Traders may favour support‑zone accumulations with tight stops and profit‑taking near resistance, amid headline‑driven volatility around policy commentary and economic data.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (JPY) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Pair trades sideways under resistance | ~152.00 – 154.86 |
| Bearish extension | Yen strength and dollar weakness deepen pullback | 152.00 → 150.00+ |
| Upside reclaim | USD strength or fading intervention risk lifts price | 154.86 → 156.60+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Short‑term fundamentals favour JPY strength and a softer USD, driven by BoJ policy cues, intervention risk and weak dollar dynamics.
Technical verdict: Technically, the pair appears neutral to mildly bearish, with upside constrained by resistance and consolidation within a defined range.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term USD/JPY outlook emphasises range pressure with a bearish bias, favouring support‑based buys and cautious resistance sells, and highlighting the importance of disciplined risk management around evolving macro narratives and data releases.
USDJPY Chart
Economic News relating to USDJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
GBPUSD Analysis 01/02/2026 @ 20:30 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
GBP/USD continues to reflect the relative monetary policy outlook between the Bank of England (BoE) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed), alongside broader sentiment in global FX markets. Recent data shows strong UK business activity and retail sales supporting the pound, lifting GBP/USD towards near four‑month highs as the US dollar weakens.
However, underlying fundamentals remain mixed. Market pricing still reflects potential for future BoE rate cuts if inflation softens, and UK domestic pressures and political/fiscal noise could dampen sterling. At the same time, the US dollar’s performance remains sensitive to risk sentiment, political developments and Fed communications.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals are cautiously positive for sterling against the US dollar but remain balanced. Positive UK macro data and weaker dollar dynamics provide support, yet domestic pressures and possible BoE easing could limit further strength.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~1.3680 – 1.3700 USD per GBP.
Technical indicators portray a mixed near‑term picture with consolidation beneath recent highs, suggesting a range‑based dynamic. Some analysis shows a bullish bias from longer‑term moving averages, while short‑term oscillators and recent price action point to neutral to mildly corrective conditions.
Key approximate support and resistance levels:
| Level | Price (Approx) (USD) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~1.3860 – 1.3900 |
| R1 | ~1.3740 – 1.3800 |
| Current Spot Price | ~1.3680 – 1.3700 |
| S1 | ~1.3560 – 1.3600 |
| S2 | ~1.3450 – 1.3500 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance clusters around 1.3740–1.3800 and higher at 1.3860–1.3900, where prior highs were tested. Support: Immediate support appears near 1.3560–1.3600, with deeper backing around 1.3450–1.3500 offering zones where buyers have previously emerged.
Technical verdict
Technically, the pair displays a neutral to mildly bullish pattern in the short term. Recent consolidation below resistance suggests range‑bound conditions, with bullish momentum potential if key breakout levels are overcome, but also risk of pullback if support zones give way.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~1.3560 – 1.3600 (support) | 1.3740 → 1.3860 | Below 1.3450 |
| Sell on rallies | ~1.3740 – 1.3800 (resistance) | 1.3600 → 1.3560 | Above 1.3900 |
| Breakout buy | Above ~1.3860 | 1.3900 → new highs | Below 1.3740 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: Expect range‑bound movement with mild bullish tilt, oscillating between defined support and resistance. Traders may prefer accumulating positions near support with tight risk controls and trimming exposure into resistance bands, mindful of macro catalysts such as UK CPI and Fed commentary.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | GBP/USD trades sideways | ~1.3560 – 1.3800 |
| Bullish breakout | Sterling strength and dollar weakness extend gains | 1.3800 – 1.3900+ |
| Bearish pullback | UK economic pressures or dollar recovery weigh | 1.3560 → 1.3450+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Fundamentals are cautiously supportive for GBP/USD, driven by UK macro strength and dollar softness, yet tempered by domestic and policy uncertainties.
Technical verdict: Technically, the pair shows neutral to mildly bullish dynamics, with clear support and resistance bands guiding near‑term movement.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term GBP/USD outlook favours range‑based tactics with a bullish bias, highlighting support‑buy zones and resistance‑area profit‑taking, and underscores the importance of risk management amid evolving macro and sentiment drivers.
GBPUSD Chart
Economic News relating to GBPUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURGBP Analysis 01/02/2026 @ 20:45 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
EUR/GBP is shaped by relative monetary policy expectations and macroeconomic data from the euro‑area and the United Kingdom. Traders are watching the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) for signals on interest rates, with any divergence in policy or economic surprises influencing cross‑rate direction. The eurozone’s inflation and growth data versus UK economic releases remain key inputs into EUR/GBP positioning. Recent news suggests persistent attention on these factors, though neither side has delivered a clear dominant trend in fundamentals.
UK inflation and labour metrics and euro‑area growth indicators impact sterling and the euro differently, and shifts in risk sentiment can also affect both currencies given their roles as major developed‑market currencies. Expectations of future BoE easing or ECB stance shifts may feed into near‑term dynamics.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Fundamentally, the short‑term outlook for EUR/GBP is mixed. Monetary policy expectations from the ECB and BoE and contrasting economic data from the euro‑area and UK create a backdrop where direction depends on fresh macro releases and central bank guidance. There is no definitive fundamental bias at present, with both supportive and opposing factors present for the pair.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~0.8661 GBP per EUR.
Recent technical readings and sentiment indicators suggest neutral to mild bearish bias in the near term, with oscillators and moving averages showing mixed signals and a broad range being respected. Some pivot and technical analyses indicate resistance levels above the current price and support levels below that are relevant for short‑term traders.
Approximate support and resistance levels:
| Level | Price (Approx) (GBP) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~0.8684 – 0.8695 |
| R1 | ~0.8671 – 0.8682 |
| Current Spot Price | ~0.8653 – 0.8677 |
| S1 | ~0.8642 – 0.8655 |
| S2 | ~0.8600 – 0.8630 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance is observed in the 0.8670–0.8695 area, where recent trials have stalled and technical pivot points cluster. Support: Immediate support lies around 0.8640–0.8655, with deeper support nearer 0.8600–0.8630 that has previously constrained declines.
Technical verdict
Technically, the short‑term outlook is neutral to mildly bearish. The current price has shown constrained upside under nearby resistance and the technical ratings lean towards sell or neutral across short‑term indicators. A break below support zones could reinforce downside continuation, while a sustained break above resistance levels would shift sentiment more bullish.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~0.8640 – 0.8655 (support) | 0.8670 → 0.8695 | Below 0.8600 |
| Sell on rallies | ~0.8670 – 0.8695 (resistance) | 0.8655 → 0.8630 | Above 0.8700 |
| Breakout strategies | Above ~0.8700 | 0.8720 → higher | Below 0.8670 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: A range‑bound environment between defined support (~0.8640–0.8655) and resistance (~0.8670–0.8695) remains likely in the short term. Traders might favour accumulating near key support levels with tight risk controls and profit‑taking near resistance, as clear trend momentum is yet to establish.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (GBP) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | EUR/GBP oscillates within the current band | ~0.8630 – 0.8695 |
| Bearish extension | Break below support reinforces downside | 0.8600 – 0.8630 |
| Bullish breakout | Break above resistance shifts outlook | 0.8695 – 0.8740+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: The short‑term fundamental picture for EUR/GBP is mixed, with monetary policy expectations and divergent economic data from the euro‑area and UK creating an inconclusive backdrop.
Technical verdict: Technically, the pair trades within a neutral to mildly bearish range, with resistance capping near current levels and support defining potential downside limits.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term EUR/GBP outlook favours range‑based strategies, with support‑zone buying and resistance‑area selling appearing most appropriate until a clear breakout confirms a new directional trend. Risk management remains essential given neutral fundamentals and mixed technical signals.
EURGBP Chart
Economic News relating to EURGBP
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
GBPJPY Analysis 01/02/2026 @ 21:00 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The GBP/JPY cross remains influenced by monetary policy dynamics between the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), risk sentiment and macroeconomic releases from both the UK and Japan. Broader FX markets have recently positioned around expectations for future policy divergence; although the gap between UK and Japanese interest rates has narrowed, sterling has remained relatively strong versus the yen amid global risk–on sentiment and portfolio flows favouring higher‑yielding assets.
Meanwhile, Japanese CPI and GDP metrics have tempered BoJ’s urgency to tighten aggressively, and speculation around intervention risk and yen strength is present. Support for sterling from robust UK GDP data has been limited in driving sustained gains, as renewed Japanese yen support emerges amid softer domestic price pressures.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals are mixed to mildly supportive of GBP/JPY, reflecting continued policy and yield differentials, risk appetite and macroeconomic data. Sustained direction depends on fresh UK releases, BoJ language or intervention signals and broader risk sentiment.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~¥211.2 – ¥212.6 per GBP.
Technicals indicate that GBP/JPY remains in a broad uptrend with periodic corrective pullbacks. Moving average frameworks suggest a buy bias, but oscillators and momentum indicators show signs of an easing uptrend after extended gains, with consolidation around multi‑year highs. Pivot analysis highlights key intraday support and resistance clusters that matter for technical positioning.
Key approximate support and resistance levels:
| Level | Price (Approx) (JPY) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~213.30 – 214.50 |
| R1 | ~212.00 – 213.00 |
| Current Spot Price | ~211.20 – 212.60 |
| S1 | ~210.20 – 211.10 |
| S2 | ~209.60 – 210.00 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance is seen around 212.00–213.00, with higher hurdles near 213.30–214.50 where recent price peaks and pivot R2/R3 appear. Support: Immediate support levels lie near 210.20–211.10, with deeper support around 209.60–210.00 where prior corrective lows have held.
Technical verdict
Technically, the short‑term outlook leans mildly bullish with consolidation. Broader trend signals still favour higher prices in the medium term, but near‑term momentum shows signs of cooling, warranting attention to the outlined support/resistance framework for trade management.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~210.20 – 211.10 (support) | 212.00 → 213.30 | Below 209.60 |
| Sell on rallies | ~212.00 – 213.00 (resistance) | 211.10 → 210.20 | Above 214.50 |
| Breakout buy | Above ~213.30 | 214.50 → higher | Below 212.00 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: GBP/JPY is likely to consolidate within a broad uptrend, where dip buying around near‑term support zones and profit‑taking near key resistance levels remains tactical. Traders should monitor overbought/oversold signals and broader market sentiment, particularly risk flows, which can influence yen crosses.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (JPY) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Consolidation around current levels within uptrend | ~210.20 – 213.30 |
| Bullish extension | Break above resistance with renewed technical momentum | 213.30 – 215.00+ |
| Bearish pullback | Momentum loss and risk off flows favour yen strength | 211.10 → 209.60+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: The fundamental backdrop is mixed to slightly supportive, with policy divergence, risk sentiment and macro data forming an ambiguous yet cautious upward bias.
Technical verdict: Technically, GBP/JPY remains in a broad bullish structure, albeit with signs of short‑term consolidation and momentum cooling. Support and resistance zones define the tactical environment.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term GBP/JPY outlook favours range‑based trading within an overall bullish context, using support‑based buy setups and resistance‑area profit‑taking, supported by disciplined risk management around evolving macro and technical triggers.
GBPJPY Chart
Economic News relating to GBPJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
XAGUSD Analysis 01/02/2026 @ 21:14 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Silver (XAG/USD) has experienced exceptional volatility and significant upward moves in early 2026, driven by a confluence of macro and micro factors. Recent price action reflects record‑breaking highs, with strong demand from retail and physical markets, particularly in China, alongside safe‑haven flows amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
Fundamentally, the narrative is shaped by:
-
Industrial demand linked to solar, electronics and EV sectors supporting broader silver utilization;
-
Supply constraints evidenced by elevated lease rates and tight physical availability;
-
Speculative and momentum‑led flows as prices test historic peaks;
-
US dollar dynamics and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which can weaken USD and favour precious metals like silver in FX‑quoted terms.
However, analysts caution that such rapid rallies can invite profit‑taking and potential corrections, especially if industrial demand peaks or speculative intensity wanes.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals present a bullish backdrop for XAG/USD, anchored by safe‑haven demand, supply tightness and supportive macro drivers. Nevertheless, elevated prices and speculative positioning suggest that correction risks and profit‑taking pressures may increase, particularly if momentum indicators weaken.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: trading in the range of ~$108–$110 per ounce of silver during recent sessions, having tested fresh record highs above $110.
Recent technical observations signal strength with signs of waning momentum. After parabolic climbs toward multiple new highs, price action shows consolidation around these elevated levels, with retracements and potential tactical ranges forming.
Approximate support and resistance levels (based on recent pivot, extension and observed action):
| Level | Price (Approx) (USD) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~$115.00–$117.75 |
| R1 | ~$110.00–$112.50 |
| Current Spot Price | ~$108.00–$110.00 |
| S1 | ~$104.00–$106.50 |
| S2 | ~$98.00–$102.00 |
Resistance: Near‑term supply obstacles lie near prior record highs around $115.00–$117.75, where upside attempts have paused. Support: Immediate support zones appear near $104.00–$106.50, with deeper backing around $98.00–$102.00, where buyers historically re‑engaged after corrections.
Technical verdict
Technically, the short‑term outlook shows mixed bullish structure with consolidation risk. Silver’s breakout trend is intact, but near‑term momentum oscillators hint at exhaustion and potential range‑bound action or corrective pullbacks before any continuation of the uptrend.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~$104.00–$106.50 (support) | $110.00 → $115.00 | Below $98.00 |
| Sell on rallies | ~$110.00–$112.50 (resistance) | $106.50 → $104.00 | Above $117.75 |
| Breakout buy | Above ~$117.75 | $120.00 → higher | Below $112.50 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: Silver is likely to consolidate after sharp gains, oscillating within a well‑defined range. Traders may prefer buying near key supports with tight stops and trimming gains near resistance, mindful of potentially rapid reversals in this volatile commodity.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Silver trades sideways/consolidates | ~$104.00 – $112.50 |
| Bullish extension | Renewed breakout above key resistance | $115.00 – $120.00+ |
| Bearish correction | Momentum drops and profit‑taking dominates | $102.00 → $98.00+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: The fundamental backdrop for XAG/USD remains bullish in the short term, with supportive demand drivers, tight supply and macro risk premia encouraging silver prices, yet heightened price levels and speculative components raise correction risk.
Technical verdict: Technically, silver exhibits strong overall structure with near‑term consolidation threats, with clear support and resistance zones guiding tactical setups.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term XAG/USD outlook favours measured range‑based strategies within a broader uptrend, emphasising support‑based accumulations and cautious profit‑taking near resistance, underpinned by disciplined risk controls as price volatility remains elevated.
XAGUSD Chart
Economic News relating to XAGUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
