secundum Liber Abaci
Praemonitus, Praemunitus
Fibbinarchie
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
USDCHF Analysis 03/02/2026 @ 19:00 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The USD/CHF pair remains under significant influence from US dollar strength versus persistent Swiss franc safe‑haven demand. Recent market moves saw the franc rallying toward decade‑high levels against the US dollar amid global uncertainty and risk‑off flows, highlighting CHF’s role as a haven currency.
Monetary policy expectations also shape the backdrop: markets are reassessing the outlook for the Federal Reserve (Fed) after recent shifts in policy pricing — which have at times dampened the dollar — and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintains a cautious stance given franc strength and low inflation. The SNB recently denied engaging in currency manipulation amid US monitoring concerns, emphasising policy aimed at domestic inflation and stability.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals point to downside or range‑bound pressure for USD/CHF, as safe‑haven CHF demand and a strong Swiss franc counterbalance intermittent dollar strength. Monetary policy uncertainty on both sides suggests limited directional conviction until clearer economic data or central bank signals emerge.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~0.7750 CHF per USD. USD/CHF has recently eased lower with modest downside from prior sessions.
Technical indicators broadly favour bearish sentiment. Trading signals from widely followed indicators such as moving averages, RSI and directional indicators indicate sell bias across multiple timeframes, and technical analysis platforms currently rate the pair on a “Sell” signal cluster.
Approximate support and resistance levels (based on recent pivot point and chart data):
| Level | Price (Approx) (CHF) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~0.7839 – 0.7860 |
| R1 | ~0.7786 – 0.7800 |
| Current Spot Price | ~0.7739 – 0.7760 |
| S1 | ~0.7736 – 0.7710 |
| S2 | ~0.7675 – 0.7650 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance resides just above the current rate around ~0.7786–0.7800, with a broader ceiling near ~0.7839–0.7860 where recent rebounds have stalled. Support: Immediate support is seen in the ~0.7736–0.7710 band, with deeper support near ~0.7675–0.7650 as prior lows offer downside support.
Technical verdict
Technically, USD/CHF exhibits a bearish to neutral bias in the short term, with momentum indicators tilting toward downside continuation unless key resistance levels are reclaimed. The broader selling trend — reinforced by strong CHF moves — remains intact as long as price stays below major resistance.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~0.7675 – 0.7710 (support) | 0.7786 → 0.7839 | Below 0.7650 |
| Sell on rallies | ~0.7786 – 0.7800 (resistance) | 0.7736 → 0.7675 | Above 0.7860 |
| Breakout play | Above ~0.7839 | 0.7860 → higher | Below 0.7786 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bearish tilt or within a defined range, bounded by resistance overhead and key support levels below. Traders should protect positions with tight stops, recognising the potential for sharp CHF strengthening amid risk event uncertainty.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (CHF) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Price oscillates between established support and resistance | ~0.7710 – 0.7839 |
| Bearish extension | Downside resumes amid renewed CHF safe‑haven demand | 0.7710 – 0.7650+ |
| Bullish retracement | Rebound on dollar strength and data surprises | ~0.7786 – 0.7860+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: The short‑term fundamental backdrop for USD/CHF is bearish to neutral, influenced by strong CHF safe‑haven demand and cautious outlooks for both the Fed and SNB.
Technical verdict: Technically, the pair leans bearish, with price below key resistance and indicators signalling sell bias. Support levels will be critical in gauging any corrective rebounds.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for USD/CHF favours range‑based or bearish strategies, with priority on shorting rallies into resistance or buying near support only after clear signs of base formation. Price behaviour around established support and resistance will provide guidance on potential trend continuation or reversal.
USDCHF Chart
Economic News relating to USDCHF
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
XAUUSD Analysis 03/02/2026 @ 19:15 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The XAU/USD (Gold) market has experienced significant volatility in recent sessions. Spot prices declined sharply from record highs amid a broad sell‑off triggered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which was interpreted as a potential shift toward tighter monetary policy and reduced safe‑haven demand. A stronger US dollar and increased margin requirements on precious metal futures also intensified selling pressure.
Despite near‑term weakness, underlying fundamental drivers remain supportive for gold over the medium term. Central bank purchasing and geopolitical concerns continue to underpin demand for gold as a hedge against inflation and currency risk, and major investment banks maintain elevated year‑end price forecasts based on robust demand dynamics.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals are mixed, with current economic and policy news driving corrective pressure. However, gold’s safe‑haven appeal and broader demand trends remain positive, suggesting that recent weakness could be consolidative rather than a structural reversal.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~$4,906 USD per ounce (rebounds from recent lows).
Technical studies show a corrective phase following a steep decline, with prices bouncing from critical support levels after extended selling. Momentum indicators reflect mixed signals, highlighting both weakening bullish momentum from extended rallies and signs of stabilisation as prices find support.
Approximate support and resistance levels:
| Level | Price (Approx) (USD) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~5,050 – 5,100 |
| R1 | ~5,000 – 5,050 |
| Current Spot Price | ~4,900 – 4,950 |
| S1 | ~4,750 – 4,800 |
| S2 | ~4,600 – 4,650 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance clusters around $5,000–$5,050, a key zone for bulls to reclaim to re‑establish upside momentum. Broader resistance nearer $5,050–$5,100 also tests buyer confidence. Support: Immediate support lies near $4,750–$4,800, a level seen as the base for potential rebounds, while deeper support around $4,600–$4,650 marks the lower bounds of recent selling.
Technical verdict
Technically, XAU/USD is in a corrective phase with a neutral to mildly bullish bias, as the market searches for value following the sharp sell‑off. Price action suggests stabilisation around key supports, but upside remains capped by intermediate resistance zones.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~4,750 – 4,800 (support) | 5,000 → 5,050 | Below 4,600 |
| Sell on rallies | ~5,000 – 5,050 (resistance) | 4,900 → 4,800 | Above 5,100 |
| Breakout play | Above ~5,050 | 5,100 → higher | Below 5,000 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: XAU/USD is expected to consolidate after recent volatility, with prices oscillating between support and resistance levels defined above. Risk controls should emphasise tight invalidation points as traders navigate a corrective environment with rapid intraday swings.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Consolidation between established support and resistance | ~4,750 – 5,050 |
| Bearish extension | Breakdown below key support amid renewed USD strength | 4,750 → 4,600+ |
| Bullish retracement | Rebound on safe‑haven demand and value buying | ~5,000 – 5,100+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: The short‑term fundamental outlook for XAU/USD is mixed, with corrective pressures from monetary policy expectations and dollar strength counterbalanced by enduring safe‑haven demand and solid longer‑term drivers.
Technical verdict: Technical conditions indicate that XAU/USD is in a corrective phase with neutral to mildly bullish characteristics, stabilising near support zones while resistance caps near‑term upside.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for XAU/USD favours range‑based strategies around key support and resistance levels, with opportunities to buy dips near support and sell rallies near resistance. Breakouts beyond these technical pivots could offer clearer directional context for the near future.
XAUUSD Chart
Economic News relating to XAUUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURUSD Analysis 03/02/2026 GMT @ 19:30
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The EUR/USD rate reflects mixed macroeconomic forces shaping the euro against the US dollar. Recently, the eurozone economy ended 2025 with modest but resilient growth, buoyed by consumption and investment that helped offset export weakness, suggesting broader economic stability in the euro area. ECB policymakers have highlighted the impact of a strong euro on inflation dynamics, noting potential policy implications should the currency continue appreciating sharply.
Conversely, the US dollar has weakened to its lowest levels in years amid market concern over US fiscal and monetary policy, including comments downplaying currency strength and uncertainty around Federal Reserve leadership. This has supported higher EUR/USD prices recently.
Monetary policy divergence remains a central fundamental driver: markets currently price changing expectations for both the Fed and the ECB, with implications for yield differentials and capital flows that influence the exchange rate.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals are somewhat supportive of the euro against the dollar, driven by eurozone resilience and broader dollar weakness, although this lift is tempered by concerns about the pace of ECB action and global risk sentiment.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~1.1817 USD per EUR. Recent sessions show the pair trading around this level after modest gains.
Technical analysis indicates a mixed to mildly bearish sentiment in the very short term, with prices having retraced from recent peaks and facing intermediate resistance before extending an uptrend. Short‑term pivot data shows support testing and resistance hurdles that define price action.
Approximate support and resistance levels (using recent pivot and chart information):
| Level | Price (Approx) (USD) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~1.1890 – 1.1920 |
| R1 | ~1.1850 – 1.1875 |
| Current Spot Price | ~1.1790 – 1.1825 |
| S1 | ~1.1750 – 1.1765 |
| S2 | ~1.1680 – 1.1700 |
Resistance: The pair faces near‑term resistance in the 1.1850–1.1875 zone, with broader resistance near 1.1890–1.1920 that could cap upside. Support: Immediate support lies around 1.1750–1.1765, with deeper backing around 1.1680–1.1700 where recent downturns have stabilised.
Technical verdict
Technically, EUR/USD exhibits a neutral to mildly bearish short‑term bias, as momentum indicators show consolidation around current levels, and key resistance zones persist ahead of further upside. Support levels will be important for gauging continuation or deeper correction.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~1.1750 – 1.1765 (support) | 1.1850 → 1.1890 | Below 1.1700 |
| Sell on rallies | ~1.1850 – 1.1875 (resistance) | 1.1790 → 1.1750 | Above 1.1920 |
| Breakout play | Above ~1.1890 | 1.1920 → higher | Below 1.1850 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: EUR/USD is expected to trade within a defined range, bounded by intermediate resistance near 1.1890 and support around 1.1750. Traders should manage risk with defined invalidation levels and avoid over‑leveraging amid mixed technical signals.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Oscillation between support and resistance zones | ~1.1750 – 1.1890 |
| Bullish breakout | Break above resistance on sustained euro strength | 1.1890 – 1.1950+ |
| Bearish correction | Drop below support amid renewed dollar strength | 1.1750 – 1.1680+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Short‑term fundamentals lean supportive of the euro, influenced by eurozone resilience and broader dollar weakness, albeit with caution around ECB timing and macro uncertainty.
Technical verdict: The technical picture presents a neutral to mildly bearish short‑term bias, with the pair consolidating near the current price and facing key overhead resistance.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for EUR/USD favours range‑bound strategies, buying near support levels and selling into resistance, with breakouts beyond those technical pivots offering clearer signals for directional continuation or reversal.
EURUSD Chart
Economic News relating to EURUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
CHFJPY Analysis 03/02/2026 @ 19:45 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The CHF/JPY currency pair reflects broader macroeconomic drivers affecting the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, both often regarded as safe‑haven assets during periods of market stress. Ongoing shifts in global risk sentiment continue to influence the demand for these currencies, with episodes of risk aversion typically strengthening both CHF and JPY. Structural fundamentals—Switzerland’s robust financial position and low government debt—support the franc’s safe‑haven appeal, while Japan’s enduring economic challenges and monetary policy divergence at the Bank of Japan (BoJ) shape the yen’s movements.
Recent technical commentary highlights that CHF/JPY has been exhibiting bullish cycles, reflecting stronger franc performance relative to the yen as markets price differential interest rate expectations and risk dynamics.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for CHF/JPY lean modestly supportive of franc strength, underpinned by safe‑haven flows and structural resilience of the Swiss economy. However, monetary policy signals from the BoJ and evolving global risk conditions could sway sentiment toward the yen unexpectedly.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~200.59 JPY per CHF. Recent data shows modest upside movement, with the pair trading near multi‑session highs and exhibiting resilience above 199 yen.
Technical indicators align in favour of an upward bias, with a “Strong Buy” technical opinion from aggregated analysis and all major moving averages signalling buy conditions. However, overbought momentum readings suggest caution as short‑term momentum could prompt corrective pullbacks before continuation.
Approximate support and resistance levels (based on recent pivot points and chart pivot studies):
| Level | Price (Approx) (JPY) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~201.26 – 201.93 |
| R1 | ~201.09 – 201.84 |
| Current Spot Price | ~200.40 – 200.96 |
| S1 | ~200.21 – 198.75 |
| S2 | ~199.89 – 197.93 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance resides just above 201.26 – 201.93, a zone defined by recent pivot levels and chart structure. Support: Immediate support lies around 200.21 – 198.75, with broader support nearer 199.89 – 197.93 where previous retracements have stabilised.
Technical verdict
Technically, CHF/JPY exhibits a bullish short‑term bias, supported by positive moving averages and buying momentum, though caution is warranted due to overbought signals that could prompt short‑term corrections. Breaks above resistance and below support pivots will be key for defining the next directional moves.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~200.21 – 198.75 (support) | 201.09 → 201.26 | Below 197.93 |
| Sell on rallies | ~201.09 – 201.26 (resistance) | 200.96 → 200.21 | Above 201.93 |
| Breakout play | Above ~201.26 | 201.93 → higher | Below 201.09 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: CHF/JPY is expected to remain in a bullish range, consolidating above key support and testing higher resistance levels. Given overbought short‑term momentum, oscillation between support and resistance pivots is likely before decisive directional continuation. Employ tight invalidation levels to manage risk amid potential corrective phases.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (JPY) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Price fluctuates between short‑term support and resistance | ~198.75 – 201.26 |
| Bullish extension | Break above resistance on sustained franc strength | 201.26 → 203.00+ |
| Pullback consolidation | Correction toward support amid overbought indicators | 200.21 → 197.93+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: The fundamental backdrop for CHF/JPY is supportive of franc strength, driven by safe‑haven dynamics and structural economic resilience, though evolving BoJ policy and global risk sentiment remain key influences.
Technical verdict: Technically, CHF/JPY shows a bullish short‑term bias, supported by positive moving averages and upward momentum. Overbought conditions suggest potential for corrective retracements.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for CHF/JPY favours bullish range strategies, buying near key support levels and targeting resistance pivots, while monitoring for corrective pullbacks and breakouts to refine directional context.
CHFJPY Chart
Economic News relating to CHFJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURJPY_Content
EURJPY Chart
Economic News relating to EURJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
USDJPY_Content
USDJPY Chart
Economic News relating to USDJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
GBPUSD_Content
GBPUSD Chart
Economic News relating to GBPUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURGBP_Content
EURGBP Chart
Economic News relating to EURGBP
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
GBPJPY_Content
GBPJPY Chart
Economic News relating to GBPJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
XAGUSD_Content
XAGUSD Chart
Economic News relating to XAGUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
