secundum Liber Abaci
Praemonitus, Praemunitus
Fibbinarchie
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
USDCHF Analysis 05/02/2026 @ 13:00 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
USDCHF is trading at 0.7757, consolidating near multi-year lows following the 28 January 52-week bottom at 0.7603. Trading Economics reported the pair at 0.7766 on 4 February (+0.16 % on the session), whilst LiteFinance quoted 0.77698 the same day. The pair has declined approximately 14.7 % over the trailing twelve months, driven by eroding US–Swiss yield differentials, persistent safe-haven demand for the franc, and mounting political uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve independence. Two competing narratives remain at play: structural CHF strength versus a nascent “Warsh premium” in the dollar that has provided short-term reprieve but faces severe political headwinds.
Federal Reserve – United States. The FOMC held the federal-funds target at 3.50 %–3.75 % on 28 January 2026, pausing after three consecutive 25 bp cuts in late 2025. Two governors – Miran and Waller – dissented in favour of further cuts. Chair Powell described the economy as expanding “at a solid pace” on a “firm footing”, whilst noting job gains remain low but the unemployment rate shows signs of stabilisation. He assessed the current rate as “loosely neutral” and stressed that decisions would be made “meeting by meeting”. Markets price at most two cuts across 2026 and none in 2027, reflecting expectations that core PCE inflation (currently 2.8 % year-on-year) will remain sticky. Powell anticipates tariff-related inflation will peak around mid-2026 before moderating. The Atlanta Fed nowcasts Q4 2025 GDP growth at 5.4 %, confirming robust economic momentum.
Kevin Warsh – Fed chair nominee. President Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh on 30 January to succeed Powell when his chairmanship expires in May 2026. Warsh, 55, served on the Fed Board from 2006–2011 and is a fellow at the Hoover Institution. Whilst his past record suggests a hawkish stance, he has recently favoured greater policy easing in 2026, driven by productivity-led growth. The nomination triggered an immediate dollar rally: the DXY surged approximately 1.5 % in two days — its best two-day gain in nine months — as markets priced in a more cautious approach to rate cuts and potentially tighter Fed governance.
Confirmation obstacle – Tillis block & Democratic resistance. However, confirmation is far from assured. Senate Democrats formally demanded on 3 February that Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott delay Warsh’s nomination until the DOJ probes into Powell and Governor Lisa Cook are concluded. Critically, Republican Senator Thom Tillis has vowed to block any Fed nominee until the Powell investigation is resolved. With the Banking Committee comprising 13 Republicans and 11 Democrats, a single Republican defection alongside all Democrats will deadlock the nomination. Senate Majority Leader Thune acknowledged that without Tillis, Warsh “probably” cannot win confirmation. As of 5 February (12 hours ago per Axios), key Republicans on the Banking Committee are attempting to grease the path for Warsh by downplaying the Powell investigation or calling for it to be resolved quickly. However, Tillis does not appear to be budging. Senator John Kennedy (R-La.) stated “it only takes one of us to have that. Thom has taken that ground already,” whilst Senator Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) noted “I don’t think [Powell] belongs in a federal courtroom or a federal penitentiary.”
Swiss National Bank – Switzerland. The SNB held its policy rate at 0.00 % at its December 2025 meeting and is expected to remain there throughout 2026. Swiss CPI was 0.0 % in November 2025 and 0.1 % in December; the SNB projects average inflation of just 0.3 % across 2026, remaining well below the 2 % target. SNB President Schlegel has explicitly ruled out a return to negative rates, citing undesirable effects on pension provision, whilst reiterating that the central bank will intervene in FX markets if needed. The franc has gained 3.5 % against the dollar in 2026 alone (following a 12.7 % gain in 2025), driven by unpredictable US trade policy, questions over Fed independence, and geopolitical tensions. Trading Economics reported on 28 January that the franc touched 0.78 per USD in late January — the highest since January 2015 — as a global pivot toward safe assets combined with aversion toward other currencies drove markets to pile into CHF.
US economic data – ISM Manufacturing PMI. The ISM Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 52.6 in January 2026 from 47.9 in December, far above forecasts of 48.5, signalling the first expansion in manufacturing in 12 months. New orders surged to 57.1 from 47.4 and production climbed to 55.9 from 50.7. However, the ISM chair cautioned that some buying appeared to be front-running expected tariff-driven price increases rather than reflecting genuine demand growth.
Fundamental / Economic Verdict
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
USDCHF has staged a modest bounce from the 52-week low of 0.7603 (28 Jan) to the current quote of 0.7757, a recovery of 154 pips (2.0 %). ActionForex’s daily outlook published at 13:47 GMT on 2 February confirms that intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen above 0.7603. Critically, with 0.7792 resistance intact, the outlook remains bearish. ActionForex states: “on the downside, break of 0.7603 will resume the larger down trend to 0.7382 projection level next. However, firm break of 0.7792 will turn bias back to the upside, for stronger rebound to 0.7860 support turned resistance and above.” This represents a meaningful gating level: 0.7792 was the critical resistance in every session since the low, and only a firm breach flips the near-term chart structure.
Chart patterns. A triangle consolidation pattern confirmed an upside breakout on 30 January after a strong bearish move produced lower highs and higher lows, compressing price before expansion. TradingView community analysis identified a completed Head & Shoulders pattern with a bearish neckline break — a longer-term bearish signal that remains in force unless price sustains above 0.7912. Additionally, a tentative double-bottom is forming with the left shoulder at the late-January low; the neckline sits at 0.7792. As of current price at 0.7757, the pair has not achieved a firm break above this level; ActionForex’s requirement is explicit.
Moving averages. The 55-day EMA sits at 0.7912 (implied from the 0.7860 target if 0.7792 breaks) and is the next material target on the upside. The 50-day SMA is estimated near 0.7776 (per CoinCodex), placing current price at 0.7757 just below the 50D. The 55-week EMA ranges from 0.8166 to 0.8184 (per ActionForex 2 Feb); the broader bearish trend remains intact as long as price stays below that level. The 200-day SMA sits near 0.7936-0.7987.
Momentum & volatility. The daily RSI registered 28.91 at extreme oversold levels but is now recovering, supporting the near-term bounce narrative. The ADX remains elevated at 53.79, confirming the underlying trend has not yet dissipated. ATR on the daily is 0.00066 — low in absolute terms — but the pair has moved 154 pips in eight sessions, indicating the low-volatility regime is beginning to break down. TradingView reports volatility at 0.39 %, with the pair rising 1.86 % over the past week, falling 2.04 % over the past month, and declining 14.70 % over the last year.
Sentiment indicators. TradingView’s technical rating shows Sell (1 week and 1 month ratings also Sell). CoinCodex reported on 2 February that the general sentiment is neutral, with 14 technical indicators signalling bullish and 12 signalling bearish. ActionForex pivots (2 Feb 13:47 GMT): S1 0.7620, P 0.7663, R1 0.7686. The split between short-term tactical bounce potential and medium-term bearish structure is evident.
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Context |
|---|---|---|
| R2 | 0.7860 | ActionForex upside target if 0.7792 breaks firmly; support turned resistance |
| R1 | 0.7792 | Critical resistance (ActionForex 2 Feb); firm break needed to turn bias upside; currently intact = bearish outlook |
| Current Spot | 0.7757 | User-confirmed live · below 50D SMA (~0.7776) · ActionForex pivot 0.7663 · consolidation above 0.7603 |
| S1 | 0.7620 | ActionForex daily pivot S1 (2 Feb); minor support on pull-back |
| S2 | 0.7603 | 52-week low (28 Jan) · ActionForex trend-resumption trigger · break targets 100 % projection at 0.7382 |
Technical Verdict
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Direction | Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long corrective bounce |
0.7720–0.7750 (pullback to ActionForex pivot / 50D SMA) |
0.7680 (below S1 pivot with buffer) |
TP1 0.7792 TP2 0.7860 |
Targeting 0.7792 resistance test; if firm break occurs, extends to 0.7860 per ActionForex. Warsh premium (conditional on Tillis resolution). Risk/reward ~1.0:1 to TP1. |
| Short (trend-follow) |
0.7790–0.7810 (fade into 0.7792 resistance) |
0.7870 (above 0.7860 target) |
TP1 0.7663 TP2 0.7603 |
0.7792 historically acts as resistance. With 0.7792 intact, ActionForex outlook remains bearish. If Warsh confirmation stalls (Tillis block persists), premium unwinds rapidly. Structural trend intact below 0.8166. |
Position sizes must reflect current ATR. Reduce gross exposure ahead of NFP on 7 Feb; historical USDCHF NFP moves routinely exceed 60 pips in the first 15 minutes.
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case (50 % probability): USDCHF consolidates within a 0.7660–0.7820 range over the next 3–5 trading days. The Warsh nomination premium keeps a modest floor under the dollar, but the Tillis block (as of 5 Feb showing no signs of budging) and Democratic resistance cap rallies. Price gravitates toward the 0.7720–0.7770 midpoint as the market digests Warsh confirmation headlines and awaits NFP. Neither the 52-week low (0.7603) nor the critical 0.7792 resistance is decisively breached.
Key assumptions:
- NFP (7 Feb) comes in broadly in line with consensus (~67 000 monthly); no material surprise in either direction.
- Warsh confirmation process stalls but does not collapse entirely; Tillis block persists; no breakthrough by 5 February evening.
- SNB refrains from overt FX intervention; verbal warnings continue.
- No material escalation of tariff rhetoric or new geopolitical shock.
- ISM Services PMI (released 3 Feb) does not dramatically contradict the manufacturing expansion narrative.
Risk management checklist:
- Long stops must sit below 0.7680 — below the S1 pivot (0.7620) with buffer — to avoid intraday noise whilst protecting against a break of 0.7603.
- Short positions should only be initiated on a confirmed rejection at 0.7792; do not anticipate — wait for the rejection to materialise.
- Halve position size by the NFP window (7 Feb, 13:30 GMT). Re-enter after the initial spike resolves.
- Cross-check EURCHF and GBPCHF daily: broad CHF strength across the board overrides any single-pair USD headline.
- If the Tillis block escalates, the DOJ probe expands, or Warsh withdraws his nomination, treat that as an immediate bearish catalyst; de-risk longs before waiting for price confirmation.
- Monitor 5 February Senate Banking Committee proceedings closely; any acceleration of Warsh hearing schedules versus delays is a critical USD-repricing signal.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Prob. | Target Range | Catalysts / Triggers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consolidation (Base) |
50 % | 0.7660–0.7820 | NFP in line; Warsh hearing delayed but not withdrawn; Tillis does not budge; SNB verbal only; no new geopolitical shock. The 0.7792 resistance caps rallies; the 52-wk low (0.7603) caps selling. Price churns between S1 and just below R1. |
| Bullish Correction | 25 % | 0.7820–0.7936 | Warsh hearing proceeds smoothly despite Democratic demands; Senate leadership overrides Tillis or DOJ probe concludes quickly. NFP surprises materially to the upside. ISM Services confirms manufacturing rebound. DXY extends above 98. Firm break of 0.7792 on closing basis opens 0.7860; extension to 200D SMA (~0.7936) follows. |
| Bearish Breakdown | 25 % | 0.7550–0.7603 | Tillis formally blocks Warsh and holds; DOJ probe escalates. Warsh withdraws nomination or Trump pivots to alternative candidate. NFP disappoints; market reprices two cuts by June. New tariff escalation or geopolitical event rekindles safe-haven flows. Break below 0.7603 activates stop-losses toward 0.7382 projection per ActionForex. |
Key events – next 7 calendar days:
Summary
The fundamental verdict is strongly bearish over the medium term, with a short-term reprieve now under severe threat. The SNB’s zero-rate anchor, Swiss inflation at or near zero, two dovish Fed dissents, and the structural safe-haven bid for CHF all argue for continued franc appreciation. Against that, the Warsh nomination introduced a temporary “hawkish Fed chair” premium, reinforced by the ISM Manufacturing PMI surprise (52.6) and robust GDP trajectory. However, the political obstacle is formidable. As of 5 February (12 hours ago per Axios), Senator Thom Tillis shows no signs of budging on his vow to block Warsh until the Powell investigation concludes, despite Republican attempts to downplay the probe. The Democratic resistance (all 11 Banking Committee members formally demanded delay on 3 February) combined with Tillis creates a 12-vote bloc that deadlocks the 13R-11D committee. The critical uncertainty is whether the Warsh premium survives the Senate confirmation gauntlet or evaporates as the confirmation stalemate persists.
The technical verdict is neutral in the near term but retains a bearish bias per ActionForex’s framework. Current price at 0.7757 sits below the critical 0.7792 resistance; ActionForex explicitly states that with 0.7792 resistance intact, the outlook remains bearish. Only a firm break of 0.7792 will turn the bias back to the upside for a stronger rebound to 0.7860. The triangle breakout on 30 January and the tentative double-bottom pattern are encouraging, but confirmation requires a sustained closing price above 0.7792. At 0.7757, that confirmation remains pending. The Channel Down, the completed H&S pattern, and the 55W EMA at 0.8166-0.8184 all confirm that any recovery remains counter-trend until substantially more structure is rebuilt. A break of 0.7603 will resume the larger downtrend to the 0.7382 projection level.
Synthesising the two verdicts: the most probable outcome over the next seven days is a range-bound consolidation between 0.7660 and 0.7820 (50 % probability), as the Warsh premium (conditional on confirmation progress) and ISM surprise support the dollar whilst the structural CHF bid, Tillis block (as of 5 Feb showing no signs of movement), and Democratic resistance cap any sustained recovery. Traders should favour tactical longs on dips toward 0.7720–0.7750 targeting the 0.7792 resistance test, with disciplined stops below 0.7680. Shorts are reserved for confirmed rejections at 0.7792.
Beyond the 7-day tactical window, the structural bearish case for USDCHF remains intact. The SNB’s refusal to go negative, the Fed’s dovish dissents, the unresolved DOJ probes, and the Senate confirmation obstacles collectively point toward further franc strength once the Warsh noise subsides or collapses. Any sustained rally toward 0.7860 or above should be viewed as an opportunity to reset shorts at better levels — not as a trend change. The pair’s ultimate trajectory will be determined by whether Warsh overcomes the Tillis block and Democratic demands, or whether the confirmation collapses, removing the last bulwark against resumption of the Channel Down toward 0.7382.
USDCHF Analysis 04/02/2026 @ 19:00 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The USD/CHF exchange rate is influenced by contrasting economic conditions in the United States and Switzerland, together with global risk sentiment. Recent data point to a broadly stable yet subdued U.S. dollar amid mixed macro releases, while Switzerland’s economy remains characterised by low inflation and cautious monetary policy from the Swiss National Bank (SNB). SNB officials have highlighted policy challenges given near‑zero inflation and the mandate to maintain price stability, and have signalled readiness to act if necessary.
The franc retains its safe‑haven status, strengthening in risk‑off environments and limiting upside for the USD/CHF pair. Broader FX news shows USD/CHF trading in a relatively narrow range, with swings often linked to U.S. economic data or central bank expectations.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for USD/CHF are mixed but slightly tilted toward franc support, given Swiss policy vigilance and safe‑haven demand balanced against intermittent U.S. dollar strength tied to macro data. There is no clear fundamental catalyst for a strong breakout in either direction presently.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~0.7765 CHF per USD based on recent price data.
Technical sentiment shows a mixed picture — with some indicators signalling bullish momentum while others point to neutral or weak technical conditions. Pivot point analysis from recent sessions gives a range of short‑term levels traders watch for support and resistance.
| Level | Price (Approx) (CHF) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~0.7790 – 0.7800 |
| R1 | ~0.7775 – 0.7785 |
| Current Spot Price | ~0.7760 – 0.7770 |
| S1 | ~0.7726 – 0.7740 |
| S2 | ~0.7600 – 0.7650 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance sits around ~0.7775–0.7785, with broader resistance up near ~0.7790–0.7800, where recent rally attempts have paused. Support: Immediate technical support lies around ~0.7726–0.7740, with deeper support zones near ~0.7600–0.7650 reflecting lower recent price probes.
Technical verdict
Technically, USD/CHF is neutral to mildly bearish in the short term. Price is trading within a defined range and has yet to break convincingly beyond key pivots. Mixed technical signals and rangebound price action suggest limited conviction for a strong trend without a clear breakout catalyst.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~0.7726 – 0.7740 (support) | 0.7775 → 0.7790 | Below 0.7600 |
| Sell into rallies | ~0.7775 – 0.7785 (resistance) | ~0.7760 → 0.7726 | Above 0.7800 |
| Breakout play | Above ~0.7785 | 0.7790 → 0.7820+ | Below 0.7760 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: The pair is likely to remain range‑bound in the near term, oscillating between the support and resistance pivots listed above. Risk management should focus on tight invalidation levels given the lack of clear directional breakout.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (CHF) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Price remains within defined pivot range | ~0.7725 – 0.7790 |
| Bearish extension | Break below support from franc safe‑haven flows | ~0.7650 downward |
| Bullish breakout | Strong dollar data lifts price above resistance | ~0.7800 – 0.7850+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Short‑term fundamentals are mixed, with the franc supported by safe‑haven demand and SNB vigilance, while the U.S. dollar shows intermittent strength but lacks a strong bullish driver.
Technical verdict: Technical conditions are neutral to mildly bearish, with price in a defined range and key indicators not signalling a definitive trend.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for USD/CHF favours range trading, with buying near support and selling near resistance. Breakouts beyond established pivots will be required to signal a clearer directional bias.
USDCHF Chart
Economic News relating to USDCHF
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
XAUUSD Analysis 04/02/2026 @ 19:20 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Gold (XAU/USD) remains a focal point in global markets amid significant fundamental drivers, with recent volatility reflecting competing macroeconomic influences. Analysts report unprecedented price swings with a sharp plunge followed by rapid rebounds, highlighting heightened speculative activity and risk sentiment shifts. Safe‑haven demand linked to geopolitical and economic uncertainty continues to underpin interest in gold, even as extreme price moves have raised questions about its reliability as a non‑yielding asset.
A recent Reuters poll of analysts shows upward revisions to gold forecasts for 2026, with median projections near $4,746.50 / oz, reflecting central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and broader uncertainty in global financial conditions. Traders remain attentive to U.S. data and monetary policy signals that can influence both the U.S. dollar and precious metal flows.
Current spot price data shows gold trading in the mid‑$4,900s per ounce, with intraday ranges reflecting ongoing market rebalancing.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for XAUUSD remain mixed but biased toward bullish safe‑haven demand, supported by aggressive central bank forecasts and elevated geopolitical risks, even as extreme volatility introduces uncertainty around immediate directional conviction.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~4,906–4,917 USD per ounce.
Technical sentiment for XAUUSD shows mixed signals. While broader momentum measures and moving averages on daily timeframes often signal a Buy bias, price action reflects retracements and corrective phases after record highs, with technical indicators suggesting potential for both continuation and pullback scenarios depending on price behaviour around key levels.
Short‑term pivot and zone analysis from chart‑based sources suggests the following approximate support and resistance levels for near‑term trading:
| Level | Price (Approx) (USD/oz) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~5,200 – 5,204 |
| R1 | ~5,080 – 5,113 |
| Current Spot Price | ~4,900 – 4,920 |
| S1 | ~4,850 – 4,872 |
| S2 | ~4,700 – 4,720 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance clusters in the ~5,080–5,200 zone, where sellers have previously emerged after recent peaks. Support: Immediate support is observed around ~4,850–4,872, with deeper technical support near ~4,700–4,720, aligning with lower consolidation zones after the recent selloff.
Technical verdict
Technically, XAUUSD shows a neutral to cautiously bullish structure, with price consolidating below key resistance but maintaining interest above support zones. Momentum indicators vary by timeframe, suggesting that while the uptrend remains intact on broader scales, short‑term corrective pressures may continue until a decisive break of key pivots occurs.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~4,850 – 4,872 (support) | ~4,980 → 5,080 | Below 4,700 |
| Sell into rallies | ~5,080 – 5,113 (resistance) | ~4,920 → 4,850 | Above 5,200 |
| Breakout play | Above ~5,113 – 5,200 | ~5,204 → 5,300+ | Below 5,080 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: XAUUSD is likely to trade within a well‑defined range between established support and resistance pivots. Risk management around invalidation levels is crucial given the ongoing volatility and rapid sentiment shifts.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (USD/oz) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Sustained oscillation between support and resistance levels | ~4,850 – 5,080 |
| Bullish breakout | Strong safe‑haven flows lift price above key resistance | ~5,200 – 5,300+ |
| Correction extension | Renewed selling pressure tests deeper support zones | ~4,700 – 4,850 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Short‑term fundamentals are mixed with a bullish skew, driven by safe‑haven demand, geopolitical risks, and revised analyst forecasts, offset by recent extreme volatility.
Technical verdict: Technical conditions are neutral to moderately bullish, with price trading above key support zones but below significant resistance. Mixed momentum suggests range‑based or corrective moves until clear breakout direction emerges.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for XAUUSD supports range‑trading strategies, with buying near defined support and selling near resistance, while monitoring for higher‑timeframe breakout signals that could indicate renewed trend direction.
XAUUSD Chart
Economic News relating to XAUUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURUSD Analysis 04/02/2026 @ 19:30 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The EUR/USD pair is influenced by ongoing macro divergence between the United States and the Eurozone, with recent data and sentiment tilting towards U.S. dollar strength. Eurozone activity data has showed modest growth but renewed U.S. data strength, while fundamental drivers such as inflation, interest rate expectations and central bank direction continue to shape price action. The Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and U.S. economic releases have provided support to the dollar, limiting EUR/USD upside.
Meanwhile, the euro has struggled to extend prior momentum as dollar strength and soft eurozone macro data weigh on the pair. Ongoing divergence in monetary policy expectations—where the market anticipates a relatively firmer stance from the Fed relative to the ECB—continues to present headwinds for EUR/USD at present.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for EUR/USD are mixed but slightly skewed toward dollar support, driven by outperformance in U.S. economic data and expectations around Federal Reserve policy, while eurozone momentum remains moderate. The overall macro backdrop favours a cautious stance toward euro strength until clearer divergence materialises.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~1.1798 USD per EUR.
Technical signals for EUR/USD remain mixed in the short term. Momentum indicators and pivot analysis show neutral to slightly bearish pressures, with price testing key inflection zones. Trading around 1.1750–1.1800 reflects consolidation, with resistance seen above the current spot and support levels providing potential downside anchors.
| Level | Price (Approx) (USD) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~1.1890 – 1.1900 |
| R1 | ~1.1825 – 1.1840 |
| Current Spot Price | ~1.1775 – 1.1800 |
| S1 | ~1.1700 – 1.1725 |
| S2 | ~1.1600 – 1.1650 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance zones cluster just above the 1.1825–1.1840 area, with broader caps observed near 1.1890–1.1900 — where recent rallies have encountered obstacles. Support: Immediate support is near 1.1700–1.1725, with a deeper supports around the 1.1600–1.1650 range, often cited in pivot and historical technical studies.
Technical verdict
Technically, EUR/USD shows neutral to modestly bearish sentiment in the short term, with price consolidating within a range just below key resistance and mixed momentum indicators pointing to balanced forces without definitive directional conviction.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday ‒ Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~1.1700 – 1.1725 (support) | ~1.1825 → 1.1890 | Below 1.1600 |
| Sell into rallies | ~1.1825 – 1.1840 (resistance) | ~1.1780 → 1.1700 | Above 1.1900 |
| Breakout play | Above ~1.1840 – 1.1890 | ~1.1900 → 1.1950+ | Below 1.1825 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: EUR/USD is likely to remain range‑bound in the near term, with mixed technical signals and consolidation between pivot support and resistance levels. Traders should use well‑defined invalidation points to manage risk given the lack of clear breakout drivers.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Price continues to oscillate between support and resistance | ~1.1700 – 1.1840 |
| Bearish extension | Renewed dollar strength breaks support | ~1.1650 – 1.1600 |
| Bullish breakout | A bout of euro strength breaks resistance | ~1.1890 – 1.1950+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Short‑term fundamentals are mixed with a slight tilt toward U.S. dollar support, as economic data and policy expectations favour the dollar while eurozone momentum remains moderate.
Technical verdict: Technical conditions show neutral to modestly bearish sentiment, with price consolidating near key levels and mixed signals from momentum indicators.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for EUR/USD supports range‑trading strategies, buying near key support and selling near resistance, while monitoring for decisive breakout signals to clarify the next directional phase.
EURUSD Chart
Economic News relating to EURUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
CHFJPY Analysis 04/02/2026 @ 19:44 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The CHF/JPY exchange rate reflects the relative strength of the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, both influenced by differing macroeconomic drivers. The Swiss economy and currency are supported by safe‑haven demand and relatively stable monetary policy expectations, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has embarked on a gradual shift from ultra‑loose policy, having lifted short‑term interest rates in late 2025, with markets watching for further normalization that could bolster the yen.
Economic releases and risk sentiment in global markets continue to influence CHF/JPY, with fluctuations often tied to risk‑on/risk‑off dynamics and shifts in yield differentials between Switzerland and Japan. Both currencies can strengthen in risk‑averse environments, but monetary policy divergence and growth differentials contribute to directional bias in the pair.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for CHFJPY are mixed with a slight bias toward franc strength, supported by safe‑haven demand and relatively steady Swiss macro conditions. This is balanced against potential yen appreciation if BoJ policy continues tightening and inflation proves persistent. Without a clear macro catalyst, the fundamental backdrop suggests range‑bound pressure with sensitivity to risk sentiment.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~199.7 – 200.0 JPY per CHF.
Technical indicators across multiple sources show mixed to positive bias in the short term. Pivot point and moving‑average‑based analysis indicate strong buy signals on several indicators, though oscillators show some variability, suggesting the pair is influenced by both upward momentum and near‑term consolidation.
Many technical studies show moving averages and momentum indicators suggesting a bullish structure, albeit with caution as price trades around key pivot levels.
The following approximate support and resistance levels (daily) are drawn from standard pivot analysis:
| Level | Price (Approx) (JPY) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~201.93 – 200.98 |
| R1 | ~200.75 – 200.82 |
| Current Spot Price | ~199.70 – 200.00 |
| S1 | ~198.75 – 200.49 |
| S2 | ~197.93 – 200.32 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance clusters near the 200.75–201.93 region where prior rally attempts have faced selling pressure. Support: Immediate support lies nearer 198.75–199.50, with deeper levels around 197.90–198.30 reflecting broader pivot support from recent sessions.
Technical verdict
Technically, CHF/JPY shows a neutral to mildly bullish bias, with several momentum indicators pointing toward buy signals but with price action still range‑bound within pivot support and resistance levels. Mixed oscillator signals suggest caution, with potential for both continuation of upward momentum and corrective retracements.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday ‒ Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~198.75 – 199.50 (support) | ~200.75 → 201.93 | Below 197.90 |
| Sell into rallies | ~200.75 – 201.93 (resistance) | ~200.00 → 198.75 | Above 202.00 |
| Breakout play | Above ~201.93 | ~202.50 → 203.45+ | Below 200.75 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: CHF/JPY is likely to continue trading within defined pivot ranges near the current spot, with oscillation around support and resistance. Risk management should focus on invalidation points given mixed momentum signals and absence of a strong directional catalyst.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (JPY) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Persistent lateral trading within support‑resistance | ~198.75 – 201.93 |
| Bullish breakout | Upside momentum breaks resistance, trend resumes | ~202.00 – 203.45+ |
| Corrective pullback | Retracement to deeper supports as momentum softens | ~197.90 – 196.50 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Short‑term fundamentals are mixed, with a slight bias toward franc strength amid safe‑haven flows and relatively stable Swiss macro conditions, balanced against potential yen support from BoJ‑driven tightening.
Technical verdict: Technical conditions are neutral to mildly bullish, with momentum indicators favouring buy signals but price action contained within pivot support and resistance bands.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for CHF/JPY supports range‑trading strategies, buying near support zones and selling near resistance, while monitoring for a breakout that could signal the next directional move.
CHFJPY Chart
Economic News relating to CHFJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURJPY Analysis 04/02/2026 @ 20:00 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The EUR/JPY cross reflects the interaction between Eurozone and Japanese macro dynamics, with risk sentiment and monetary policy divergence remaining key drivers. Recent news indicates that Japanese fiscal stimulus concerns and a low‑rate outlook are weighing on the Japanese yen, keeping the pair supported on the upside. Markets have priced extended accommodative policy from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) amid fiscal risks, which tends to weaken the yen and boost EUR/JPY.
On the euro side, while broader macro data occasionally lifts confidence in the euro, overall dynamics remain sensitive to European growth indicators and ECB policy guidance. Geopolitical and economic data flows can influence the euro’s strength relative to the yen through risk sentiment and carry flows.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for EUR/JPY are moderately supportive of euro strength versus the yen, primarily due to yen weakness driven by fiscal stimulus expectations and low interest rate prospects in Japan. The euro’s performance is also backed by relative economic resilience, but ongoing sensitivity to macro releases and policy statements may cause intermittent volatility.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~185.07 JPY per EUR (latest reference rate).
Technical indicators point to bullish tendencies in the short term, with moving averages signalling buy conditions and price holding above key trend‑support levels. Recent technical forecasts emphasise the uptrend remains intact as long as price sits above the 100‑day EMA, with momentum (e.g., RSI) supportive of further gains without being overextended.
Based on a mix of pivot calculations and recent price action, approximate key support and resistance levels are:
| Level | Price (Approx) (JPY) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~186.86 – 187.00 |
| R1 | ~185.90 – 186.10 |
| Current Spot Price | ~185.00 – 185.10 |
| S1 | ~184.10 – 184.30 |
| S2 | ~182.30 – 182.50 |
Resistance: Technical resistance is observed near recent highs around 186.86 – 187.00, where price has struggled to sustain upside moves. Support: Immediate support aligns with 184.10 – 184.30, with deeper technical support closer to 182.30 – 182.50 if corrective pressure increases.
Technical verdict
Technically, EUR/JPY holds a neutral to moderately bullish stance in the short term. Price structure shows the uptrend is preserved with supportive moving averages and momentum indicators, though consolidation is evident amid resistance challenges. A break above the key resistance could strengthen the bullish case, while failure to hold immediate support may signal a deeper pullback.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~184.10 – 184.30 (support) | ~185.90 → 186.86 | Below 182.30 |
| Sell into rallies | ~185.90 – 186.10 (resistance) | ~185.00 → 184.10 | Above 187.00 |
| Breakout play | Above ~186.86 | ~187.50 → 188.50+ | Below 185.90 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: EUR/JPY is likely to continue trading with a mildly bullish bias, oscillating between established support and resistance zones while maintaining the broader uptrend. Traders should monitor the key invalidation levels to manage risk effectively, as reversals or sharp moves may occur if momentum shifts.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (JPY) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Price consolidates around key pivot levels | ~184.10 – 186.86 |
| Bullish breakout | Strong momentum lifts price above key resistance | ~187.00 – 188.50+ |
| Corrective pullback | Price loses upward traction and tests deeper supports | ~182.30 – 180.50 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Short‑term fundamentals are supportive of EUR/JPY upside, driven by persistent yen weakness amid low policy rates and fiscal stimulus concern, coupled with relative euro resilience.
Technical verdict: Technical conditions present a neutral to moderately bullish picture, with the uptrend intact and key momentum indicators supporting higher prices, though resistance levels may cap immediate gains.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for EUR/JPY favours a cautiously bullish range‑biased strategy, with buying near support and monitoring resistance breakouts for potential trend continuation, while managing downside risk around key invalidation zones.
EURJPY Chart
Economic News relating to EURJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
USDJPY Analysis 04/02/2026 @ 20:16 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The USD/JPY exchange rate is primarily driven by U.S. and Japanese monetary policy expectations, yield differentials, and risk sentiment. Recent market commentary highlights the Japanese yen’s weakness ahead of domestic elections and persistent low‑rate environment from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which has supported USD/JPY gains as the yen underperforms against the U.S. dollar.
At the same time, macro drivers for the U.S. dollar are mixed. A Reuters poll notes expectations of U.S. dollar weakness later in 2026, as markets price potential Federal Reserve rate cuts amid policy uncertainty, which could counterbalance some of the rate differential that has supported the dollar.
Ongoing market focus on economic data such as PMI surveys and monetary policy outlooks will continue to influence the pair. Particularly, speculation around BoJ tightening and Fed easing could tighten the yield differential and reduce upward pressure on USD/JPY if realised.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for USD/JPY are mixed but moderately skewed toward dollar strength, supported by yen weakness and political uncertainty in Japan, balanced against murky dollar outlooks as markets contemplate eventual Fed easing. Monetary policy expectations and risk sentiment remain dominant drivers for near‑term moves.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~156.65–156.82 JPY per USD based on live exchange rate data.
Short‑term technical studies show mixed to cautiously bullish tendencies. Longer‑term moving averages and several technical indicators suggest a bullish bias, with USD/JPY trading above key moving averages and maintaining an overall uptrend.
However, recent corrective price action has met resistance near key psychological levels, and some intraday analysis suggests minor support levels could be tested before further upside unfolds.
Approximate support and resistance levels based on recent pivot and technical analysis are:
| Level | Price (Approx) (JPY) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~157.60 – 158.00 |
| R1 | ~156.00 – 156.50 |
| Current Spot Price | ~156.60 – 156.80 |
| S1 | ~154.50 – 155.00 |
| S2 | ~153.00 – 153.50 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance clusters around ~156.00–156.50 and the ~157.60–158.00 zone where recent rallies have struggled to sustain momentum. Support: Immediate support is observed near ~154.50–155.00, with deeper support closer to ~153.00–153.50 based on near‑term technical studies.
Technical verdict
Technically, USD/JPY currently shows a neutral to moderately bullish outlook, with the broader trend remaining supportive above key moving averages but price facing resistance near recent highs. Mixed price action suggests both continuation potential and risk of corrective pullbacks, depending on breakout confirmation and macro catalysts.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday ‒ Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~154.50 – 155.00 (support) | ~156.00 → 156.50 | Below 153.00 |
| Sell into rallies | ~156.00 – 156.50 (resistance) | ~155.00 → 154.50 | Above 158.00 |
| Breakout play | Above ~157.60 | ~158.00 → 159.00+ | Below 156.00 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: USD/JPY is likely to remain within a range‑oriented structure in the near term, oscillating between defined support and resistance levels. A breakout above key resistance would indicate bullish continuation, while failure to hold support could signal a deeper correction. Risk management should prioritise invalidation levels to guard against adverse movements.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (JPY) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Consolidation around recent pivot levels | ~154.50 – 157.60 |
| Bullish breakout | Strong demand lifts above resistance | ~158.00 – 159.50+ |
| Corrective pullback | Price loses momentum and tests deeper support | ~153.00 – 151.50 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Short‑term fundamentals are mixed but mildly supportive of USD/JPY, driven by yen weakness and political uncertainty in Japan, with balances from clouded dollar prospects amid potential Fed easing.
Technical verdict: Technical conditions present a neutral to moderately bullish bias, with price above key averages but resistance near recent highs and mixed momentum suggesting both continuation potential and corrective risk.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for USD/JPY supports a range‑based tactical approach, buying near support and selling near resistance levels, while monitoring breakouts and macro catalysts that could confirm trend continuation or signal corrective shifts.
USDJPY Chart
Economic News relating to USDJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
GBPUSD Analysis 04/02/2026 @ 20:30 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The GBP/USD exchange rate reflects the relative economic performance of the United Kingdom and the United States, influenced by monetary policy expectations, macroeconomic data and market sentiment. Recent macro models and data show the British pound trading near multi‑year highs, supported by broader risk appetite and relative UK economic resilience, while the U.S. dollar has seen volatility tied to policy expectations and mixed data. Sterling recently traded around 1.34–1.37 versus the dollar, reflecting both upside momentum and consolidation pressures.
On the fundamental side, BoE monetary policy expectations (with markets pricing potential rate cuts in some instances) and Fed policy dynamics (with debate around future rate paths) continue to shape price action. Growth indicators and inflation data from both economies can tilt sentiment toward either currency and remain near‑term drivers for GBP/USD.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals are moderately supportive of sterling, reflecting near‑term economic resilience in the UK and cyclical pressures on the U.S. dollar, while policy expectations for rate decisions on both sides introduce volatility. Overall, fundamental drivers suggest a balanced backdrop with a mild bias toward pound strength, contingent on macro releases and policy guidance.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~1.34–1.37 USD per GBP (range indicated by multiple market feeds).
Technical indicators present a mixed picture with neutral to mildly bullish bias in the short term. Moving averages such as the 100‑hour and longer time frames show support below current levels, indicating upside momentum persists, though momentum oscillators (e.g., RSI) suggest potential consolidation or corrective phases before continuation.
Approximate support and resistance levels based on a blend of pivot and technical analysis are:
| Level | Price (Approx) (USD) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~1.3780 – 1.3860 |
| R1 | ~1.3700 – 1.3720 |
| Current Spot Price | ~1.3400 – 1.3700 |
| S1 | ~1.3350 – 1.3400 |
| S2 | ~1.3200 – 1.3300 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance sits above recent highs in the ~1.3700–1.3780. zone, where price has encountered selling pressure and consolidation. Support: Immediate support lies near the ~1.3350–1.3400 area, with deeper technical support closer to ~1.3200–1.3300 if corrective pressure increases.
Technical verdict
Technically, GBP/USD maintains a neutral to mildly bullish outlook, with upside pressure evident above key moving averages, while momentum indicators suggest cyclical volatility and potential for consolidation. Breakouts or breakdowns from defined support and resistance zones may help clarify the near‑term trend.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday ‒ Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~1.3350 – 1.3400 (support) | ~1.3700 → 1.3780 | Below 1.3300 |
| Sell into rallies | ~1.3700 – 1.3780 (resistance) | ~1.3500 → 1.3400 | Above 1.3860 |
| Breakout play | Above ~1.3780 | ~1.3860 → 1.3950+ | Below 1.3700 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: GBP/USD is expected to remain range‑oriented with a mild bullish tilt, oscillating between key support and resistance levels, while broader macro drivers (policy expectations, data releases) influence direction. Traders should manage positions with clearly defined invalidation points to mitigate downside risk from potential USD strength or pound corrections.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | GBP/USD consolidates between established support & resistance | ~1.3350 – 1.3780 |
| Bullish breakout | Macro drivers and momentum lift price above key resistance | ~1.3780 – 1.3950+ |
| Corrective pullback | Price fails to hold support and retraces lower | ~1.3300 – 1.3200 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Short‑term fundamental indicators are moderately supportive of the pound, with relative UK economic resilience and dollar volatility shaping a cautious upside bias.
Technical verdict: Technical conditions show neutral to mildly bullish tendencies, with the pair trading above support levels and facing resistance at recent highs, while momentum indicators warn of potential consolidation.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for GBP/USD favours a range‑biased strategy with a mild bullish bias, buying near key support levels and watching for breakout confirmations above resistance, while maintaining risk discipline around invalidation zones.
GBPUSD Chart
Economic News relating to GBPUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURGBP Analysis 04/02/2026 @ 21:46 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The EUR/GBP cross reflects the relative performance of the Eurozone and UK economies, shaped by monetary policy expectations, inflation data and macro sentiment. Recent market conditions show the pair trading around 0.8641‑0.8665, with both currencies influenced by central bank decisions. Eurozone monetary policy has remained relatively steady, while the Bank of England (BoE) is in focus for its rate decisions amid evolving inflation and growth dynamics. Sterling’s strength has been underpinned by resilient UK economic data and expectations that the BoE may delay or moderate future rate cuts, supporting the pound against the euro.
Fundamental drivers include interest rate differentials between the European Central Bank (ECB) and BoE, mixed macro data from both regions and broader risk sentiment. Market positioning and institutional signals have recently indicated potential bearish bias for EUR/GBP, linked to option flow shifts and technical breakdowns in longer‑term metrics.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals are modestly supportive of sterling strength relative to the euro, driven by UK macro resilience and dovish pressures on the euro from mixed economic signals. Cross‑currency dynamics are also influenced by broader global risk sentiment, with modest downward pressure observed on EUR/GBP.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~0.8641–0.8665 GBP per EUR (live rates).
Technical indicators reveal bearish to neutral bias in the short term, with recent daily‑pivot analysis indicating downside pressure as key support levels are tested. Intraday momentum has seen sellers maintain the upper hand below resistance levels, while a decisive break below key support could signal deeper declines.
Based on recent pivot points and available technical data, approximate support and resistance levels are:
| Level | Price (Approx) (GBP) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~0.8676 – 0.8684 |
| R1 | ~0.8648 – 0.8655 |
| Current Spot Price | ~0.8641 – 0.8665 |
| S1 | ~0.8620 – 0.8626 |
| S2 | ~0.8608 – 0.8611 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance lies above ~0.8648–0.8655, where recent rallies have faced selling pressure. Support: Immediate support appears near 0.8620–0.8626, with deeper levels closer to 0.8608–0.8611 if downside momentum persists.
Technical verdict
Technically, EUR/GBP shows a neutral to bearish short‑term structure, with sellers generally dominating below key resistance and pivot zones. A sustained break below pivot‑derived support would reinforce bearish momentum, while a move above resistance zones would suggest a more neutral bias.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sell on rallies | ~0.8648 – 0.8676 (resistance) | ~0.8620 → 0.8608 | Above 0.8684 |
| Buy on dips | ~0.8620 – 0.8608 (support) | ~0.8648 → 0.8676 | Below 0.8580 |
| Breakout play | Below ~0.8608 | ~0.8580 → 0.8550 | Above 0.8620 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: EUR/GBP is likely to remain under slight selling pressure, maintaining a range‑oriented structure with bearish bias until clear breakout signals emerge. Traders should monitor pivot support and resistance levels closely and manage risk using defined invalidation zones, especially if price breaks key support levels.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (GBP) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Price consolidates within current support/resistance | ~0.8608 – 0.8676 |
| Bearish breakout | Downside momentum triggers deeper declines | ~0.8580 – 0.8550 |
| Upside retracement | Price recovers and challenges resistance | ~0.8684 – 0.8720 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Short‑term fundamentals reflect modest sterling support relative to the euro, backed by resilient UK economic data and mixed eurozone signals, tempered by broader risk sentiment.
Technical verdict: Technical indicators portray a neutral to bearish bias, with pivot support levels under pressure and resistance holding on rallies.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for EUR/GBP leans slightly bearish to neutral, favouring a tactical approach that sells near resistance and buys near established support, while managing risk around key invalidation points and watching for decisive breaks triggering directional moves.
EURGBP Chart
Economic News relating to EURGBP
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
GBPJPY Analysis 04/02/2026 @ 21:00 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The GBP/JPY exchange rate is influenced by developments in UK and Japanese monetary policy, risk sentiment and macroeconomic data from both economies. The Japanese yen typically trades as a safe haven, weakening when global risk sentiment improves and strengthening during risk aversion. Recent dynamics around Japanese fiscal policy and possible Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervention or shifts in yield curve control have contributed to ongoing yen volatility.
For the pound, the Bank of England (BoE) rate cycle and UK macro data remain key fundamentals. Discussions around UK interest rate decisions and economic resilience tend to support sterling performance when the BoE is more hawkish than the BoJ. These cross‑currency fundamentals influence the broader trend in GBP/JPY.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals suggest a tendency toward sterling strength against the yen, underpinned by yen sensitivity to risk sentiment, fiscal and monetary policy expectations in Japan and comparatively stronger UK macro signals. However, macro complexities and broader market risk shifts can create mixed near‑term reactions.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~213.8–214.3 JPY per GBP based on live rate data.
Recent technical analysis data reveal that although GBP/JPY has sustained strong moves and volatility, short‑term momentum shows neutral to bullish indications as price remains above key multi‑month levels and moving averages. Pivot analysis from technical sources suggests consolidation around current levels with downside risks if certain pivots break.
Approximate support and resistance levels:
| Level | Price (Approx) (JPY) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~216.00 – 217.00 |
| R1 | ~214.50 – 215.00 |
| Current Spot Price | ~213.80 – 214.30 |
| S1 | ~211.50 – 212.00 |
| S2 | ~209.50 – 210.00 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance lies above ~214.50–215.00, where price has encountered barriers during recent rallies. Support: Immediate support is near 211.50–212.00, with deeper support closer to 209.50–210.00 if price declines further.
Technical verdict
Technically, GBP/JPY exhibits a neutral to moderately bullish structure in the short term. The pair remains elevated above major pivot supports while facing resistance around recent highs. Mixed momentum signals — including oscillators and moving averages — point to possible consolidation with directional bias retained to the upside unless key supports are breached.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday ‒ Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~211.50 – 212.00 (support) | ~214.50 → 216.00 | Below 209.50 |
| Sell into rallies | ~214.50 – 215.00 (resistance) | ~212.00 → 211.50 | Above 217.00 |
| Breakout play | Above ~216.00 | ~217.00 → 218.50+ | Below 214.50 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: GBP/JPY is expected to remain range‑oriented with slight bullish bias over the short term, oscillating between key technical support and resistance zones. Pending macro events and risk sentiment shifts will likely determine breakout or breakdown scenarios. Risk management should emphasise defined invalidation levels to guard against adverse moves, especially in a volatile cross like GBP/JPY.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (JPY) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Price consolidates within current support/resistance levels | ~211.50 – 216.00 |
| Bullish breakout | Break above resistance with sustained momentum | ~216.00 – 218.50+ |
| Corrective pullback | Price loses momentum and tests deeper support | ~209.50 – 207.00 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Short‑term fundamentals lean toward sterling strength versus the yen, driven by BoJ dynamics, yen sensitivity to risk sentiment and UK economic resilience, although mixed macro signals could cause periodic volatility.
Technical verdict: Short‑term technicals exhibit a neutral to moderately bullish bias, with price supported at key technical levels and facing resistance near recent highs. Momentum indicators suggest possible consolidation and continuation risk.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for GBP/JPY supports a range‑biased tactical approach with a modest bullish tilt, buying near key support levels and monitoring breakout points for trend continuation while managing risk around invalidation zones.
GBPJPY Chart
Economic News relating to GBPJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
XAGUSD Analysis 04/02/2026 @ 21:18 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Silver (XAG/USD) remains heavily influenced by safe‑haven demand, industrial usage trends, supply dynamics and U.S. dollar behaviour. Precious metals including silver have experienced record highs followed by sharp volatility, driven by macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical strains and expectations around U.S. monetary policy. Despite notable rallies, analysts highlight that silver prices can be particularly volatile due to its dual role as both a safe‑haven and industrial metal. While momentum and speculative activity have underpinned recent gains, cooling industrial demand and wider market uncertainty pose risks to the uptrend.
Overall, fundamental drivers include safe‑haven flows amid geopolitical tensions, demand expectations in key industrial sectors like solar and electronics, and the influence of Fed rate expectations and USD strength/weakness. These factors together support a mixed fundamental backdrop with both bullish and cautionary elements at present.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for XAG/USD are mixed but retain constructive elements, balancing upward momentum from macro/risk sentiment and industrial prospects against caution from recent profit‑taking, speculative volatility and potential weakening in industrial demand.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~$84.70 – $85.20 per ounce for XAG/USD based on real‑time market feeds.
Technical indicators reflect volatile price action with significant recent swings. Momentum studies (moving averages) suggest varied signals, with short‑term averages not strongly decisive and a neutral overall bias given mixed buy/sell signals. Price has broken multiple previous highs, with trend momentum remaining strong on larger time frames, though shorter‑term corrective patterns have appeared.
Approximate support and resistance levels:
| Level | Price (Approx, USD) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~$98.00 – $99.40 |
| R1 | ~$90.00 – $92.90 |
| Current Spot Price | ~$84.70 – $85.20 |
| S1 | ~$76.00 – $79.80 |
| S2 | ~$74.50 – $74.55 |
Resistance: Immediate resistance lies in the $90.00 – $92.90 zone around recent pivot and psychological levels, with deeper resistance near $98.00 – $99.40, where prior highs clustered. Support: Near‑term support is found around $76.00 – $79.80, with a lower technical support band around $74.50 – $74.55 linked to moving average considerations.
Technical verdict
Technically, XAG/USD is neutral to cautiously bullish on a broader horizon but shows short‑term corrective and volatile tendencies. Price action above immediate support but below key resistance suggests a consolidation/phased correction within an overarching uptrend.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday ‒ Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy dips | ~$76.00 – $79.80 (support) | ~$90.00 → $92.90 | Below $74.50 |
| Sell rallies | ~$90.00 – $92.90 (resistance) | ~$80.00 → $76.00 | Above $98.00 |
| Breakout play | Above ~$98.00 | ~$99.40 → $104.00+ | Below $90.00 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: Over the short term, XAG/USD may trade in a consolidation or corrective mode, oscillating between key support and resistance zones as recent rallies digest and broader market influences evolve. Risk management should focus on clearly defined invalidation levels to protect capital during typical precious metals volatility.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Silver fluctuates within established support/resistance bands | ~$76.00 – $92.90 |
| Bullish breakout | Renewed safe‑haven or industrial demand drives upside | ~$98.00 – $104.00+ |
| Deeper pullback | Profit‑taking and USD strength test lower support zones | ~$74.50 – $70.00 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: The fundamental backdrop for XAG/USD combines bullish drivers from safe‑haven demand and industrial potential with cautionary signals from volatility and mixed macro indicators, resulting in a moderately constructive but uncertain short‑term outlook.
Technical verdict: Technical analysis shows neutral to cautiously bullish features on a broader scale, paired with shorter‑term corrective and consolidation tendencies around key support and resistance areas.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for XAG/USD supports a range‑biased tactical approach, with buying near strong support levels and watching for resistance breakouts to signal trend continuation, while carefully managing risk due to silver’s historically high volatility and rapid price swings.
XAGUSD Chart
Economic News relating to XAGUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
