secundum Liber Abaci
Praemonitus, Praemunitus
Fibbinarchie
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
USDCHF Analysis 14/02/2026 @ 22:55 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
-
Swiss franc strength remains a key driver: The Swiss franc has continued to appreciate sharply against major currencies into early 2026, reaching decade highs as investors sought a safe-haven amid geopolitical uncertainty and persistent global volatility. This franc strength poses a headwind for USDCHF and pressures Swiss exporters.
-
Swiss inflation and SNB policy: Swiss inflation holds near the bottom of the 0–2% target range, with recent data showing very subdued price pressures. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to maintain its 0% policy rate through 2026, with economists seeing low risk of negative rates despite inflation’s proximity to zero.
-
Monetary divergence dynamic: The SNB’s persistent low-rate stance and low inflation contrast with U.S. monetary policy, where the Federal Reserve has been reluctant to cut rates rapidly. This divergence tends to support CHF appreciation versus USD over the short term, especially when safe-haven demand is elevated.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Week-to-near-term bearish USDCHF bias. The strong franc environment, SNB’s unchanged rate outlook, and safe-haven flows underpin CHF demand and keep downward pressure on USDCHF in the current macro context.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: 0.7675 (as provided).
Based on recent technical context and historically referenced ranges for this pair, the following support and resistance levels around current trading are reasonable reference zones:
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 0.7850 |
| R1 | 0.7750 |
| Current Spot Price | 0.7675 |
| S1 | 0.7600 |
| S2 | 0.7500 |
(Levels approximated by mapping recent broader technical zones and the downward trend structure given persistent selling pressure below past larger resistance levels.)
Technical observations:
-
Bearish bias remains intact: Recent short-to-medium technical studies show a persistent bearish structure with price action failing to hold higher levels, suggesting sellers retain the edge.
-
Support context: The 0.7600–0.7700 area coincides with broader support clusters from technical snapshots, indicating a potential short-term floor.
-
Resistance clusters: Levels above 0.7750 and 0.7850 correspond to potential supply zones where technical bears may re-enter on rallies.
Technical verdict
Bearish to neutral (short term) while USDCHF trades below 0.7750 (R1). A break below 0.7600 (S1) would reinforce downside momentum, while reclaiming above 0.7750 could signal a corrective bounce toward 0.7850 (R2).
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Trigger | Entry Zone | Stop | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish continuation | Break and hold below 0.7650 | Short near 0.7675 | Above 0.7750 | 0.7600 (S1) → 0.7500 (S2) |
| Pullback sell | Price rallies but rejects R1 (0.7750) | Short 0.7745–0.7765 | >0.7850 | Back to R1 (0.7750) then S1 |
| Reversal above R2 | Sustained break >0.7850 | Long above breakout | <0.7750 | 0.7950 |
Focus is on defined levels around the current 0.7675 spot price with clear invalidation and target zones.
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Market Condition | Base Case (next 1–2 days) |
|---|---|
| Direction | Bearish continuation with intermittent pullbacks |
| Confirmation | Lower highs and breaks of S1 (0.7600) |
| Invalidation | Price holds above R1 (0.7750) on sustained session close |
| Risk controls | Use tight stops above relevant resistance on short positions; reduce size on pullbacks into range highs |
Given the broader franc strength and technical momentum, risk is better managed through defined invalidations rather than wide threshold exposures.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Expected Path |
|---|---|---|
| Bearish continuation | Continued CHF safe-haven demand, low SNB rates | Break <0.7600 (S1) → 0.7500 (S2) |
| Range / consolidation | Mixed macro headlines with tempered USD flows | Sideways 0.7600–0.7750 |
| Bullish corrective | Broad USD rebound or risk appetite surge | Reclaim R1 (0.7750) → 0.7850 (R2) |
Summary
-
Fundamental / Economic verdict: The Swiss franc’s sustained strength, SNB’s unchanged policy at zero, and safe-haven flows provide a bearish bias for USDCHF near term.
-
Technical verdict: Bearish to neutral at the 0.7675 spot, with price capped below resistance around 0.7750–0.7850 and support clustering near 0.7600–0.7500.
Conclusion: The short-term outlook for USDCHF suggests downside continuation remains more probable, with strategic opportunities to sell rallies and target lower support. A clear break above resistance zones could invite a technical corrective bounce, but the prevailing trend favours the franc and downside bias for the pair.
USDCHF Chart
Economic News relating to USDCHF
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
XAUUSD Analysis 14/02/2026 @ 22:45 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
-
USD & rates impulse: Gold remains highly sensitive to (1) the USD’s short-term direction and (2) real-yield expectations. A firmer USD generally tightens financial conditions for non-USD buyers and can cap upside rallies (all else equal).
-
Fed policy signal (risk to volatility): The latest available FOMC communication emphasises a data-dependent stance and the balance of risks around inflation and employment—conditions that typically keep rate expectations (and gold volatility) reactive to incoming US data.
-
Structural support theme: Ongoing official-sector/central-bank demand has been a notable multi-quarter pillar for gold demand and can help underpin dips when speculative positioning cools.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Slightly bullish (short term), with upside supported by persistent demand themes, but tactically sensitive to USD strength and shifting rate expectations (headline data shocks can flip momentum quickly).
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current context (last/close): 5,043.11 (last close). Daily range observed: 4,888.71 – 5,047.93.
Key levels (classic pivots from the latest session’s H/L/C):
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 5,152.47 |
| R1 | 5,097.79 |
| Current Spot Price | 5,043.11 |
| S1 | 4,938.57 |
| S2 | 4,834.03 |
Support / resistance focus
-
Immediate resistance zone: 5,048–5,100 (recent high area into R1). A clean break/hold above R1 tends to shift bias toward continuation.
-
Immediate support zone: 4,940–4,890 (S1 into the recent session low). A decisive loss increases risk of a mean-reversion move toward S2.
Technical verdict
Bullish-to-neutral (short term): price sits above the pivot (≈ 4,993) and near the session’s upper band, but overhead supply into R1 is the first real test; rejection there favours pullback trades toward S1 / pivot.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Trigger | Entry area | Stop (risk) | Targets | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakout long | Acceptance above R1 | 5,100–5,110 | Below 5,070 | 5,150 / 5,200 | Prefer with USD softness / risk-off bid |
| Fade short (rejection) | Failure at 5,048–R1 | 5,045–5,095 | Above 5,120 | 4,993 / 4,940 | Best if rejection is impulsive |
| Dip-buy | Hold above S1 | 4,940–4,900 | Below 4,880 | 4,993 / 5,048 | Look for basing signals around prior low |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Bias | Core view | Invalidation | Preferred path | Risk notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slight bullish | Buy dips while above pivot ~4,993 | Sustained trade below S1 (4,938) | Rotate higher into R1 → R2 | Volatility risk rises around US data / Fed repricing |
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Probability (qual.) | Trigger(s) | 7-day path / targets | What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull continuation | Medium | Break & hold above R1 | R2 (5,152) then extension beyond | Softer USD; risk-off demand |
| Range / mean-revert | Medium | Repeated failures near 5,048–R1 | Rotate R1 ⇄ Pivot (4,993) ⇄ S1 | Two-way flows; lack of catalyst |
| Bear pullback | Low–Medium | Daily close below S1 | S2 (4,834) as magnet | USD strength / yields repricing |
Summary
-
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Slightly bullish, but tactically driven by USD and rate-expectations swings; structural demand themes help support dips.
-
Technical verdict: Bullish-to-neutral, with price above pivot and pressing resistance; R1 (5,097.79) is the near-term decision point, while S1 (4,938.57) is the key line for downside risk control.
Overall conclusion: Near-term bias favours buying controlled pullbacks while above the pivot, but a rejection at R1 can justify short-term mean-reversion shorts toward pivot/S1; a clean break above R1 shifts focus to R2.
XAUUSD Chart
Economic News relating to XAUUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURUSD Analysis 14/02/2026 @ 23:02 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
-
Rate differential still the core driver: The Fed is holding the 3.50%–3.75% target range, signalling a cautious stance with inflation still above target.
-
ECB policy remains restrictive, but the gap matters: The ECB’s deposit facility rate remains a key anchor for EUR carry versus USD.
-
Near-term EURUSD sensitivity: short-dated yield expectations (Fed “cut timing” vs ECB “hold/slow ease”), risk sentiment (USD as liquidity/defensive bid), and any repricing of inflation persistence on either side.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Slight USD-supportive bias (short term), unless markets accelerate Fed-cut pricing.
With the Fed still signalling “higher-for-longer-ish” caution and data-dependence, EURUSD upside tends to be more grind than burst unless US data softens materially.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
-
Current spot context: EURUSD 1.186861 (reference timestamp shown by source).
-
Structure: Price is sitting just under a nearby resistance band; short-term behaviour likely to be range-to-breakout around headline levels.
-
Key focus: clean breaks/holds at the nearest round-number + published S/R cluster.
Support / Resistance levels (short term)
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 1.1900 |
| R1 | 1.1870 |
| Current Spot Price | 1.1869 |
| S1 | 1.1830 |
| S2 | 1.1800 |
Technical verdict
Neutral-to-mild bullish while holding 1.1830/1.1800; upside needs a decisive push through 1.1870 then 1.1900.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Trigger | Target | Invalidation / Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breakout continuation | Sustained hold above 1.1870 | 1.1900 (then extension if momentum persists) | Back below 1.1870 → failed breakout risk |
| Fade / mean reversion | Rejection signals near 1.1870–1.1900 | 1.1830 | Clean break above 1.1900 |
| Support-led bounce | Hold + reversal behaviour at 1.1830 | 1.1870 | Break/hold below 1.1800 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Bias | Conditions | Preferred expression | Key risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Range with upside pressure | Holds above 1.1830, but struggles to clear 1.1900 | Buy dips near support / take profits into resistance | Sudden repricing of Fed-cut expectations or risk-off USD bid |
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Probability (qualitative) | What would likely drive it | Path / Levels |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish EURUSD | Medium | Softer US data tone → earlier cut pricing; calmer risk backdrop | Sustained > 1.1870 then challenge/hold > 1.1900 |
| Base / Range | Medium-High | Fed remains cautious; ECB steady; markets wait for fresh catalysts | Chop between 1.1830–1.1900 |
| Bearish EURUSD | Medium | Risk-off + USD liquidity bid; inflation stickiness keeps Fed restrictive | Break < 1.1830, then pressure towards/through 1.1800 |
Summary
-
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Slight USD-supportive bias near term while the Fed holds 3.50%–3.75% and remains cautious on inflation.
-
Technical verdict: Neutral-to-mild bullish as long as 1.1830/1.1800 holds; upside needs clearance of 1.1870 and then 1.1900.
Net conclusion: With fundamentals modestly USD-supportive but price pressing key resistance, EURUSD is best treated as a range with breakout risk—tactically buying dips into 1.1830 while respecting that failure below 1.1800 would tilt the balance back towards USD strength.
EURUSD Chart
Economic News relating to EURUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
CHFJPY Analysis 14/02/2026 @ 23:41 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
-
Rate differential (supportive for CHF vs JPY): Switzerland’s policy rate is 0.00% after the SNB’s December 2025 decision, while Japan’s policy setting has been held around 0.75% in early 2026 coverage (following late-2025 tightening). The direction and market sensitivity still tend to favour CHF resilience when risk hedging demand rises, while JPY support typically needs either sharper risk-off or explicit policy/FX rhetoric.
-
Risk backdrop / safe-haven rotation: CHF’s “safe” characteristics often compete with JPY’s. In mixed risk conditions, CHF can stay firm if European growth/financial conditions remain fragile, while JPY can lag if markets continue to treat it as a low-yield funding currency (especially if global carry appetite persists).
-
Watch items (next 1–7 days): Japan inflation/wage narratives and any guidance on policy normalisation pace; Swiss inflation growth signals and SNB communication about currency strength and financial conditions.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Bias: Mild CHFJPY upside (CHF strength / JPY softness) unless a clear risk-off shock emerges.
The policy-rate backdrop and carry dynamics remain broadly constructive for CHFJPY holding above key supports, while JPY requires either a risk shock or a renewed hawkish repricing to flip the short-term balance.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
-
Current spot context: Recent spot indications cluster around ~199–200.
-
Structure: Price action is treated as range-to-up while above the high-198s, with 200 a key psychological pivot.
-
Market sentiment: If price holds above ~198, dips are more likely to be bought; repeated failure at/above 200–201.5 increases the odds of mean-reversion back into the 197–198 zone.
Key support / resistance (indicative)
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 201.50 |
| R1 | 200.00 |
| Current Spot Price | 199.00 |
| S1 | 198.00 |
| S2 | 196.50 |
Technical verdict
Bias: Bullish-to-neutral, conditional on holding S1 (~198).
A sustained hold above 200 (R1) improves the probability of a push toward 201.5 (R2). A breakdown below ~198 (S1) weakens the structure and increases downside risk toward ~196.5 (S2).
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Direction | Trigger | Targets | Invalidation / Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakout continuation | Long | 15–30 min close above 200.00 | 200.80 → 201.50 | Back below 199.40 |
| Range support bounce | Long | Rejection wick / hold at 198.00–198.30 | 199.20 → 200.00 | Clean break below 197.80 |
| Fade of stretched move | Short | Failure at 201.20–201.50 with momentum loss | 200.20 → 199.20 | Acceptance above 201.70 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Horizon | Base Case | Prefer | Risk Control |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1–3 days | Range-to-up above 198 | Buy dips / selective breakouts | Reduce exposure if <198 holds intraday |
| 3–7 days | Grind higher if risk sentiment steady | Add only on confirmed reclaim of 200 | If <196.5, reassess bias (trend damage) |
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Probability (qualitative) | Path | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base: Range-to-up | Medium | Holds 198, tests/holds 200, probes 201–202 | Upside bias intact |
| Risk-off JPY bid | Low–Medium | Risk shock → break <198 | Pullback toward 196.5, possibly lower |
| Hawkish BoJ repricing | Low | Surprise shift in expectations | CHFJPY pressured; rallies sold near 200 |
Summary
-
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Mild upside bias remains favoured as the policy backdrop and carry dynamics still lean toward CHF resilience versus JPY unless a risk-off catalyst dominates.
-
Technical verdict: Constructive while above ~198 (S1); 200 (R1) is the near-term pivot. A break/hold above 200 opens 201.5 (R2), while loss of 198 increases downside risk toward 196.5 (S2).
Overall: Short-term bias stays mildly bullish, but it is level-dependent—maintained above 198, neutralises below it, and turns more defensive if 196.5 breaks.
CHFJPY Chart
Economic News relating to CHFJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURJPY Analysis 15/02/2026 @ 00:04 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
-
Rate differential remains EUR-supportive: The ECB’s deposit facility rate is 2.00% (key benchmark for EUR carry), while Japan’s policy setting is still materially lower (BoJ uncollateralised overnight call rate around 0.50%). This keeps the structural carry bias tilted toward EUR-funded longs versus JPY.
-
JPY sensitivity to yields / risk tone: With Japan yields having moved up meaningfully versus prior years, JPY can strengthen quickly during risk-off phases or sharp yield pullbacks; conversely, risk-on and firmer global yields typically weigh on JPY.
-
Macro focus (next 1–2 weeks):
-
Euro area: inflation prints, ECB communication around the pace/extent of easing.
-
Japan: inflation/wage signals and any BoJ messaging around the pace of normalisation; market remains highly reactive to nuance.
-
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Mild EURJPY bullish (short term) on carry/rate differential, but fragile: any risk-off shock or Japan-policy hawkish surprise can trigger fast JPY-led pullbacks.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
-
Current spot: 185.909
-
Structure: Price is holding an elevated range; short-term sentiment remains bid while above nearby supports, but the pair is prone to sharp mean-reversion swings (typical for JPY crosses).
Key support / resistance levels (short term)
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 187.30 |
| R1 | 186.50 |
| Current Spot Price | 185.909 |
| S1 | 185.10 |
| S2 | 184.20 |
-
Resistance logic: 186.50 is the first “rejection” zone (recent supply / round-number magnet). A clean break and hold opens 187.30 next.
-
Support logic: 185.10 is the first “dip-buy” area; below it, 184.20 is the next broader support where a deeper flush often pauses.
Technical verdict
Bullish-to-neutral (short term) while holding S1 (185.10); neutral-to-bearish if sustained trade develops below S1, with S2 (184.20) the next downside reference.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Trigger | Bias | Targets | Risk / Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dip-buy | Holds above 185.10 then reclaims 185.60–185.80 | Long | 186.50 (R1) then 187.30 (R2) | Invalidate on firm break/hold <185.10 |
| Breakout continuation | Clean break + hold >186.50 | Long | 187.30, then partial trail | Invalidate on failed breakout back <186.20 |
| Fade-resistance (tactical) | Rejection at 186.50–187.30 | Short (counter-trend) | Back to 185.60 then 185.10 | Invalidate on acceptance >187.30 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Scenario | Expected behaviour | Preferred stance | Key risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base case (most likely) | Range-to-grind higher while above 185.10 | Buy dips / trend-follow | Risk-off event strengthens JPY abruptly |
| Risk case | Break below 185.10 triggers unwind | Reduce longs; wait for 184.20 reaction | False breakdown whipsaw |
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Drivers | Probability (qualitative) | Path |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull continuation | Stable risk tone + rate-differential focus | Medium | Hold >185.10 → test 186.50 → possible 187.30 |
| Range / mean reversion | Mixed macro, choppy yields | Medium | 184.20–186.50 rotation |
| JPY-led pullback | Risk-off shock / hawkish BoJ nuance | Low–Medium | Lose 185.10 → probe 184.20 (or lower if momentum builds) |
Summary
-
Fundamental / Economic verdict: mild EURJPY bullish on carry and rate differential (ECB 2.00% deposit vs BoJ policy around 0.50%), but sensitive to risk-off/BoJ surprises.
-
Technical verdict: bullish-to-neutral while above 185.10, with 186.50 then 187.30 as upside references; sustained trade below 185.10 shifts the near-term tone toward 184.20 support.
Overall, the short-term outlook is constructive but tactical: favour dip-buys above S1 and treat any break below 185.10 as a regime change toward a deeper pullback.
EURJPY Chart
Economic News relating to EURJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
USDJPY Analysis 15/02/2026 @ 00:46 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
-
Rate differential remains USD-supportive: The Federal Reserve’s target range is 4.25%–4.50% (latest decision kept policy unchanged), which continues to favour USD carry vs JPY.
-
BoJ still comparatively accommodative: The Bank of Japan’s policy guideline remains around 0.5% for the uncollateralised overnight call rate, keeping Japan’s short-end yields far below the US.
-
US yields remain a key driver: US 10-year yields have been trading around the ~4.2% area recently, reinforcing USD support when yields are firm.
-
Risk tone / safe-haven flows: Any risk-off impulses tend to support JPY, but the yield gap can limit downside in USDJPY unless risk aversion is sustained.
-
Policy/event risk (near-term): US data surprises that shift rate-cut expectations, or BoJ communication around normalisation, can drive sharp short-term repricing.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Mildly bullish USDJPY (short term) on yield/interest-rate differentials, with the main downside risk coming from risk-off episodes and/or a faster-than-expected BoJ normalisation narrative.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
-
Current spot: 152.68.
-
Immediate bias: Range-to-slightly-bullish while holding above near-term support; upside capped by nearby resistance bands and overhead supply.
-
Support / resistance focus:
-
Resistance: 153.39 (R1) then 154.09 (R2).
-
Support: 152.29 (S1) then 151.89 (S2).
-
-
Market sentiment (tactical): With spot sitting between key bands, intraday sentiment is likely to flip quickly on US yields and risk tone; breakouts need confirmation (close/hold beyond level, not just a wick).
Key levels (short term) (pivot-style levels derived from current conditions and recent range)
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 154.09 |
| R1 | 153.39 |
| Current Spot Price | 152.68 |
| S1 | 152.29 |
| S2 | 151.89 |
Technical verdict
Neutral-to-bullish (short term) while above 152.29–151.89 support, with a constructive setup if price reclaims/holds above 153.39. Loss of 151.89 would weaken the structure and increase downside follow-through risk.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Trigger | Entry Approach | Targets | Invalidation / Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Range buy | Hold above S1 | Buy dips 152.30–152.60 on stabilisation | 153.39 (R1), then 154.09 (R2) | Clean break below 151.89 (S2) |
| Breakout continuation | Break/hold above R1 | Buy on retest/hold >153.39 | 154.09 (R2) then extension | Failure back below 153.39 |
| Breakdown | Break/hold below S2 | Sell rallies after a close <151.89 | Next supports/round numbers below | Reclaim above 152.29 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Base case (next 1–3 sessions) | Probability (qualitative) | What would confirm | What would negate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sideways-to-up: grind higher supported by yield gap | Medium | Holds above S1; US yields steady/firm; closes above R1 | Sustained risk-off; sharp fall in US yields; closes below S2 |
Risk controls (practical):
-
Prefer defined invalidation around S2 (for longs) / R1 (for shorts) rather than wide discretionary stops.
-
If trading breakouts, require hold/close beyond level to reduce false breaks.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Path | Key levels to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | US yields firm; risk sentiment stable; BoJ stays measured | Tests/clears R1 → probes R2 | 153.39 then 154.09 |
| Range-bound | Mixed data; yields choppy | Oscillates between S1 and R1 | 152.29–153.39 |
| Bearish reversal | Risk-off shock and/or clear BoJ normalisation repricing | Break below S2 → deeper pullback | 151.89 then lower supports |
Summary
-
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Mildly bullish USDJPY due to the still-wide policy gap (Fed 4.25%–4.50% vs BoJ ~0.5%) and supportive US yield backdrop.
-
Technical verdict: Neutral-to-bullish while spot (152.68) holds above 152.29 (S1) and especially 151.89 (S2); upside improves on acceptance above 153.39 (R1) with 154.09 (R2) next.
Overall short-term conclusion: Fundamentals lean USD-supportive, and technicals remain constructive provided the 152.29–151.89 support zone holds. Tactical bias: buy-dips above support or participate in a confirmed break/hold above 153.39, while respecting the downside shift if 151.89 fails.
USDJPY Chart
Economic News relating to USDJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
GBPUSD Analysis 15/02/2026 @ 00:48 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
-
Policy-rate differential remains USD-supportive: the Fed’s target range is 3.50%–3.75%, while the Bank of England Bank Rate is 3.75%. The US still retains a modest front-end yield advantage, keeping the USD supported on dips in risk appetite.
-
Rate-path sensitivity stays high: short-term GBPUSD price action is likely to remain driven by (1) relative inflation persistence, (2) growth surprises, and (3) risk sentiment/volatility. Any re-pricing of the “next cut / next hike” timeline tends to feed quickly into GBPUSD.
-
Risk tone matters: when equities soften and volatility rises, USD tends to benefit via defensive flows; when risk recovers, GBP typically performs better against USD (all else equal).
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Mild USD-supportive / GBP-capped (short term). With the Fed still holding a higher/near-higher effective stance and the USD retaining defensive appeal, GBPUSD upside may be harder to sustain unless risk sentiment improves or UK data materially outperforms.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
-
Current spot is around 1.3047 with a very tight early-session range 1.3045–1.3052.
-
Immediate structure: price is consolidating; momentum signals are likely to be low-quality until a clear break occurs beyond the session extremes.
-
Key idea: treat the current day’s extremes as the first actionable “micro” resistance/support. A clean break and hold beyond these levels is needed for directional conviction.
Support / Resistance Levels (short term)
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 1.3059 |
| R1 | 1.3052 |
| Current Spot Price | 1.3047 |
| S1 | 1.3045 |
| S2 | 1.3038 |
(R2/S2 set as symmetric extensions of the current session range; R1/S1 are current session extremes.)
Technical verdict
Neutral-to-slightly bearish bias while below R1 (1.3052). A break above R1 improves scope for a push toward R2; a break below S1 (1.3045) increases risk of continuation toward S2 and potentially wider downside levels (e.g., psychological 1.3000).
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Trigger | Direction | Entry Zone | Stop (risk) | Target 1 | Target 2 | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Range-break (bull) | Break/hold above R1 | Long | 1.3052–1.3054 | 1.3044 | 1.3059 (R2) | Trail/extend if strong | Prefer confirmation (hold above R1). |
| Range-break (bear) | Break/hold below S1 | Short | 1.3044–1.3042 | 1.3053 | 1.3038 (S2) | 1.3000 area (stretch) | Watch for false breaks in thin liquidity. |
| Mean-revert | Rejection at R1/S1 | Fade | Near 1.3051–1.3052 or 1.3045 | Tight (6–10 pips) | Mid-range (spot) | Opposite band | Only if price repeatedly fails to break. |
Levels referenced from current quote/range.
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Item | Base Case (next 24–48h) |
|---|---|
| Bias | Consolidation with downside risk unless a clean break above R1 holds |
| Invalidation | Sustained trade above R1 → reduces immediate downside risk |
| Risk controls | Keep position size modest in low-range conditions; prefer confirmed breaks over first spikes |
| Key drivers to monitor | Fed/BoE repricing, broad USD strength, equity/risk sentiment shifts |
Policy backdrop reference: Fed (3.50–3.75) vs BoE (3.75).
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions (next 7 days) | Expected GBPUSD Path | Practical approach |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish GBPUSD | Risk-on tone + softer USD repricing | Higher highs; dips bought | Buy pullbacks above reclaimed resistance; trail stops. |
| Range / Chop (base) | Mixed data; limited rate repricing | Sideways with false breaks | Trade extremes; reduce leverage; take profits quickly. |
| Bearish GBPUSD | Risk-off + USD bid / hawkish repricing | Break supports; grind lower | Sell rallies into resistance; focus on clean breakdowns. |
Summary
-
Fundamental / Economic verdict: mildly USD-supportive, likely capping sustained GBPUSD upside in the short term unless risk sentiment improves or UK-side expectations reprice more hawkish.
-
Technical verdict: neutral-to-slightly bearish while below 1.3052 (R1), with near-term direction likely decided by breaks of the tight 1.3045–1.3052 range.
Combined conclusion: with fundamentals marginally favouring USD and price currently consolidating, sell-the-rip / breakdown-following tactics have a slight edge unless R1 (1.3052) breaks and holds, in which case the bias shifts to a push toward 1.3059 (R2).
GBPUSD Chart
Economic News relating to GBPUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURGBP Analysis 15/02/2026 @ 09:02 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
-
ECB policy on hold: The European Central Bank’s deposit rate remains at 2.00% with expectations of an extended pause through 2026 as inflation stabilises around target levels and the ECB emphasises a data-dependent approach.
-
Euro resilience but geopolitical headwinds: Recent ECB moves to expand euro liquidity facilities may boost confidence in the currency’s systemic role, but broader economic uncertainties (global trade tensions, slower UK inflation dynamics) can weigh on EUR flows.
-
Sterling and UK risks: Sterling has recently been influenced by UK political dynamics and gilt-yield swings — rising yields can draw capital into GBP, offering occasional GBP support versus EUR.
-
Cross influence: Relative growth expectations, services and manufacturing PMIs, and risk sentiment will remain key catalysts for EURGBP in the short term (i.e. whether traders prefer EUR or GBP as risk proxies).
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Slightly GBP-supportive / EUR-capped in the short term. With the ECB on hold and UK data/political dynamics occasionally boosting GBP, EURGBP may struggle to sustain aggressive upside without fresh euro-positive catalysts.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
-
Current Spot Price: Estimates from price feeds reflect a range near 0.8690–0.8700. (inferred from recent EURGBP price action discussions)
-
Key near-term levels: Short-term trading action has seen resistance around ~0.8740–0.8760 with support clusters near 0.8650–0.8670.
-
Recent intraday observations note rejection near resistance levels, suggesting a struggle for EURGBP to extend its rally without a breakout above the 0.8740-0.8760 area.
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~0.8760 |
| R1 | ~0.8740 |
| Current Spot Price | ~0.8700 |
| S1 | ~0.8670 |
| S2 | ~0.8650 |
(Levels based on recent structure and sentiment from multiple technical sources.)
Technical verdict
Neutral-to-bearish near term while capped below ~0.8740–0.8760. Support near ~0.8670 keeps the short-term range intact; a breakdown below ~0.8650 exposes deeper bearish territory.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Trigger | Direction | Entry Zone | Stop | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakout continuation | Hold >0.8740 | Long | 0.8720–0.8735 | <0.8710 | 0.8760 (R2) then 0.8780 |
| Range fade | Rejection ~R1 | Short | 0.8730–0.8740 | >0.8765 | 0.8700 → 0.8670 |
| Support bounce | Bounce >0.8670 | Long | 0.8670–0.8680 | <0.8650 | 0.8700 → 0.8740 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Horizon | Base Case (next 1–2 days) |
|---|---|
| Direction | Range-bound with mild GBP bias |
| Preferred stance | Tactical shorts near resistance; dip-buy only after clear support hold |
| Invalidation | Sustained breakout above 0.8760 increases bullish scope |
Risk management note: The current environment is sensitive to broader market sentiment and relative rate expectations; keep stops tight around key levels and trade confirmed holds rather than spikes.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Expected Path |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Mixed data, ECB unchanged, UK sentiment stable | Holds between 0.8670–0.8760 |
| Bearish extension | UK surprises (data/BoE tone), GBP deepens support | Break <0.8650 → 0.8600 |
| Bullish breakout | EUR positive catalyst, risk-on environment | Clear >0.8760 → 0.8800+ |
Summary
-
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Slightly GBP-supportive, with ECB on hold and UK dynamics occasionally bolstering sterling, capping sharp EURGBP upside.
-
Technical verdict: Neutral-to-bearish while below resistance (~0.8740–0.8760), with immediate support near 0.8670–0.8650. (Multiple technical sources indicate resistance and key support around these levels.)
Net view: Short-term EURGBP is within a defined range, likely to remain sideways or mildly lower until a decisive breakout beyond the resistance/wedge tops. Tactical strategies can favour selling near resistance and buying around support with clear stops.
EURGBP Chart
Economic News relating to EURGBP
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
GBPJPY Analysis 15/02/2026 @ 02:06 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
-
Rate differential still GBP-supportive: UK policy remains meaningfully tighter than Japan’s, keeping carry attractive when risk sentiment is stable. Market focus remains on when the BoE begins easing and how quickly.
-
Japan policy normalisation risk: The BoJ’s direction-of-travel remains the key tail risk for GBPJPY longs (any signal of earlier/tighter normalisation tends to support JPY).
-
Risk sentiment matters: GBPJPY remains sensitive to global risk appetite (JPY tends to outperform in risk-off). Short-term swings can be driven as much by equities/rates volatility as by domestic data.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Slight GBPJPY-bullish bias, conditional on risk sentiment staying constructive. The carry backdrop supports GBP over JPY, but the JPY can strengthen abruptly on BoJ-normalisation headlines or broad risk-off.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
-
Current spot context: GBPJPY has recently been trading around the 213.7 area.
-
Momentum: Near-term bias remains constructive while holding above first support; however, price is extended enough that pullbacks toward support zones are plausible.
-
Support/resistance focus: Key levels below are classic pivots derived from the most recent observed session range (high/low) and an implied prior close from the same snapshot (method-led, not vendor-provided).
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 214.19 |
| R1 | 213.40 |
| Current Spot Price | 213.68 |
| S1 | 212.10 |
| S2 | 211.59 |
Technical verdict
Mildly bullish above S1 (212.10), neutral-to-cautious below it. A sustained hold above 213.40 (R1) keeps scope for 214.19 (R2), while a break below 212.10 (S1) increases risk of a deeper mean reversion toward 211.59 (S2).
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Trigger | Targets | Invalidation | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy dip (trend-continuation) | Holds above S1 (212.10) and reclaims R1 (213.40) | 213.95–214.19 (R2) | Sustained below S1 | Favourable if broader risk tone is steady. |
| Fade extension (mean reversion) | Failure to hold above R1 after testing highs | 213.00, then S1 | Clean break/hold above R2 | Use smaller size; trend is still upward-biased. |
| Breakdown hedge | Clear break + acceptance below S1 | S2 (211.59) | Reclaim above S1 | Higher probability if risk sentiment deteriorates. |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Horizon | Base case | What would change it | Risk controls |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1–3 days | Grind higher / range with upward bias above 212.10 | BoJ hawkish headlines or broad risk-off | Prefer staged entries; reduce exposure into major risk events; use hard invalidations below S1. |
| 3–7 days | Retest/hold above 213–214 zone | UK rate-cut repricing accelerates or JPY strengthens on policy repricing | Cap downside with defined stops; consider partial profit-taking into R2 area. |
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Probability (qualitative) | Path | Key tells |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | Medium | Holds S1, breaks/holds above R2 | Stable risk sentiment + no hawkish BoJ surprises. |
| Range / consolidation | Medium | Oscillates 212–214 | Mixed macro headlines; carry demand offset by periodic risk-off. |
| Risk-off / JPY-led pullback | Low–Medium | Break below S1 → test S2 | Equity drawdown, volatility spike, or BoJ normalisation repricing. |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Slight GBPJPY-bullish (carry supportive), but vulnerable to BoJ-normalisation headlines and risk-off bursts.
Technical verdict: Mildly bullish above S1 (212.10) with scope toward R2 (214.19); below S1 the tone shifts to corrective toward S2 (211.59).
Overall: A cautiously constructive short-term stance is favoured while above first support, with trade planning centred on 213.40 / 214.19 overhead and 212.10 / 211.59 below.
GBPJPY Chart
Economic News relating to GBPJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
XAGUSD Analysis 15/02/2026 @ 02:50 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
-
Safe-haven and USD dynamics: Silver (XAGUSD) often behaves as a hybrid precious metal and industrial commodity, attracting flows during risk-off episodes or when inflation expectations rise, while often sliding when the US Dollar strengthens or real yields climb.
-
Industrial demand fundamentals: Ongoing structural demand from solar, EV and electronics sectors continues to underpin broader silver demand over the medium term, potentially cushioning deeper corrections.
-
Monetary influences: Expectations around Fed policy (cuts vs. hikes) and broader liquidity conditions feed directly into XAGUSD demand; dovish impulses can enhance precious metal appeal, while hawkish surprises often pressure prices.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Neutral-to-slightly bullish on structural demand and safe-haven appeal, but sensitive to USD strength and real yield shifts; fundamentals are supportive of upside beyond corrective phases, but not overwhelmingly directional in the very short term.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
-
Current spot price: Recent trading shows XAGUSD around ~$77.3–77.4, with the market exhibiting a short-term rally yet still below key overhead zones.
-
Structure: Silver has seen both sharp corrective phases from multi-week highs and rebounds from support, indicating volatile price action with both trend and correction elements being active.
| Level | Price (approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | $79.07 |
| R1 | $78.33 |
| Current Spot Price | $77.38 |
| S1 | $77.17 |
| S2 | $76.76 |
(Levels based on recent surge structure and short-term swing points.)
-
Resistance: $78.33–$79.07 area marks near-term hurdles where recent rallies faced supply, with higher resistance zones often in the ~$86–$88 area on broader daily structure.
-
Support: Immediate support around $77.17–$76.76 reflects recent consolidation lows; losing these would increase short-term downside risk toward deeper levels like $76.01 and below.
Technical verdict
Neutral with a slight upside bias while above near-term support, but bearish if price fails to hold S1/S2 and remains capped below R1/R2, signifying a consolidative or corrective technical phase.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Trigger | Direction | Entry Zone | Stop | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakout continuation | Hold >R1 (78.33) | Long | 78.35–78.55 | <77.80 | R2 (79.07) → 80.50 |
| Range fade (sell into strength) | Rejection near R1/R2 | Short | 78.30–79.10 | >79.50 | Back to S1 (77.17) |
| Support bounce | Hold above S1 (77.17) | Long | 77.20–77.40 | <76.70 | R1 (78.33) |
(Zones emphasise recent observed short-term levels from price action.)
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Horizon | Base case (next 1–2 days) |
|---|---|
| Direction | Range-bound to mildly bullish near support while capped by near resistance |
| Confirmation | Sustained trade above R1 (78.33) |
| Invalidation | Clear break below S2 (76.76) |
| Risk controls | Prefer confirmed hold above targets before committing; use tight invalidation stops below S2 |
Given volatile price swings and sensitivity to macro drivers (USD, yields), risk management should prioritise defined invalidation zones rather than exposure around breakout fakeouts.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Expected Path |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | Soft USD + helpful macro drivers (Fed dovish signals) | Break >R2 (79.07) → probe 80.50+ |
| Range/Retracement | Mixed data; oscillating sentiment | Hold S1–R1 range (~76.76–78.33) |
| Bearish correction | USD strength / negative macro headlines | Break below S2 → deeper support tests (mid-70s) |
Summary
-
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Neutral-to-slightly bullish overall given structural demand factors and the precious metal’s appeal in uncertain macro environments, but near-term direction remains sensitive to USD movements and real yields.
-
Technical verdict: Neutral bias with slight upside tilt while the price remains above near support (~$77.17–$76.76) and struggles for sustained acceptance above immediate resistance (~$78.33–$79.07).
Conclusion: XAGUSD is navigating a short-term technical consolidation/correction phase within a broader constructive backdrop. Tactical strategies can favour breakouts above near resistance for continuation or support-based buys on confirmed holds, while clear breaks below support invite deeper retracement scenarios on fading momentum.
XAGUSD Chart
Economic News relating to XAGUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
