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USDCHF Analysis 16/02/2026 @ 18:45 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
USDCHF is trading at 0.7694, consolidating near multi-year lows and approaching the all-time low of 0.71829 set on 10 August 2011. LiteFinance reported 0.76858 on 16 February, Yahoo Finance quoted 0.7670 at the close on 13 February (day range 0.7670–0.7718, 52-week range 0.7629–0.9054), and TradingView showed 0.76951 (+0.08 % in 24 hours). The pair has declined approximately 15 % over the trailing twelve months.
Kevin Warsh – Fed chair nominee & political deadlock (latest 15-16 Feb). President Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh on 30 January to succeed Powell. However, confirmation has become deadlocked. Senator Thom Tillis reiterated his vow on 15 February (19 hours ago per Newsmax) that he has “no intention of supporting any confirmation of any Fed board member, chair or otherwise … until this is resolved.” On 13 February (3 days ago), Tillis told CBS and Bloomberg: “We could have a hearing all we want, but until the investigation is done … I have no intention of allowing any Fed board nominee to move forward out of committee and to be confirmed, until this matter is settled.” Tillis is willing to wait “the remainder of this Congress” (333 days).
Banking Committee deadlock. The committee comprises 13R-11D; Tillis’s defection creates a 12-12 deadlock. Tillis is retiring, giving him no political incentive to compromise. FinancialContent reported hearings are “slated for early March 2026, though they face potential delays from a faction of the GOP led by Senator Thom Tillis.”
Swiss National Bank. The SNB held its policy rate at 0.00 % and is expected to remain there throughout 2026-2027. Swiss CPI stood at 0.1 % in January 2026, unchanged from December.
Fundamental / Economic Verdict
Verdict – Strongly bearish; political deadlock entrenchedThe fundamental case remains decisively bearish. The SNB’s zero-rate anchor, near-zero Swiss inflation (0.1 %), and persistent safe-haven demand point toward further franc appreciation. The Warsh nomination initially triggered a dollar rally (USDCHF peaked at 0.7815 on 2 Feb), but this has collapsed. As of 15 February (19 hours ago), Tillis reiterated his block. On 13 February (3 days ago), he stated he will not budge—willing to wait 333 days. The 13R-11D committee creates a 12-12 deadlock that prevents Warsh from advancing. Tillis is retiring with no political incentive to compromise. The Warsh premium has evaporated.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
USDCHF is consolidating at 0.7694, just 65 pips above the 52-week low of 0.7629 and 111 pips above the all-time low of 0.71829.
LiteFinance analysis (16 Feb). A Descending Triangle breakout occurred at 0.7832, with a target at 0.7396. A high-volume bearish Marubozu candle confirms the strengthening downtrend. MACD is negative, RSI is at 35 (oversold but may move lower), and MFI is declining.
TradingView analysis. The pair trades within a 10-month Channel Down. TradingView notes: “End of Correction & Bearish Continuation. A confirmed breakout of the neckline targets at least 0.7694.” The recent advance appears to be a corrective bounce approaching dynamic resistance near 0.7740.
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Context |
|---|---|---|
| R2 | 0.7832 | Descending Triangle breakout level |
| R1 | 0.7740 | Dynamic resistance / corrective bounce target |
| Current Spot | 0.7694 | User-confirmed · LiteFinance 0.76858 · Yahoo 0.7670 · TradingView 0.76951 |
| S1 | 0.7629 | 52-week low; critical support |
| S2 | 0.7396 | Descending Triangle target |
Technical Verdict
Verdict – Bearish; consolidation before next leg downThe technical picture is decisively bearish. LiteFinance’s Descending Triangle targets 0.7396. TradingView forecasts “Bearish Continuation” with confirmed breakout targeting 0.7694 (current spot), followed by 0.7655. The 10-month Channel Down, bearish Marubozu, MACD negative, RSI 35 (oversold), and declining MFI confirm the downtrend. The recent advance to 0.76951 is a corrective bounce approaching resistance at 0.7740. A break of 0.7629 resumes the downtrend to 0.7396 and potentially the all-time low at 0.71829.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Direction | Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long corrective |
0.7665–0.7685 | 0.7615 | TP1 0.7740 TP2 0.7832 |
Targeting 0.7740 dynamic resistance; RSI 35 oversold. Risk/reward ~1.1:1 to TP1. Tactical only. |
| Short trend-follow |
0.7735–0.7755 | 0.7840 | TP1 0.7629 TP2 0.7396 |
Fade 0.7740 resistance. TradingView: “Bearish Continuation” targets 0.7655-0.7694. Descending Triangle targets 0.7396. |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case (55 %): USDCHF consolidates within 0.7630–0.7750 over the next 3–5 days. The Warsh deadlock (Tillis 15 Feb: won’t budge) keeps downward pressure, but proximity to multi-year lows and RSI 35 supports modest bounces. Price gravitates toward 0.7680–0.7710.
Key assumptions: Warsh-Tillis deadlock persists; hearings slated early March face delays from “Tillis faction”; SNB verbal only; no new political shock.
Risk management: Long stops below 0.7615; shorts only on confirmed rejection at 0.7740; monitor SNB rhetoric; be prepared for extreme volatility if 0.7629 breaks.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Prob. | Target Range | Catalysts / Triggers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consolidation (Base) |
55 % | 0.7630–0.7750 | Warsh deadlock persists (Tillis 15 Feb: won’t budge; 13 Feb: willing to wait 333 days); 0.7740 caps rallies; 0.7629 caps selling. |
| Corrective Bounce | 20 % | 0.7750–0.7832 | Breakthrough on Tillis; DOJ probe concludes; Warsh hearings proceed early March; RSI 35 oversold triggers rebound to 0.7832. |
| Bearish Breakdown | 25 % | 0.7396–0.7550 | Warsh withdraws; DOJ escalates; TradingView breakout targets 0.7655 then 0.7694; break below 0.7629 toward 0.7396 and potentially all-time low 0.71829. |
Key events – next 7 days:
Summary
The fundamental verdict is strongly bearish, with the Warsh nomination deadlock firmly entrenched. As of 15 February (19 hours ago), Tillis reiterated his block. On 13 February (3 days ago), he stated he will not budge—willing to wait 333 days. The 13R-11D committee creates a 12-12 deadlock. Tillis is retiring with no political incentive to compromise. FinancialContent reports hearings slated for early March face delays from the “Tillis faction.”
The technical verdict is decisively bearish. LiteFinance’s Descending Triangle breakout at 0.7832 targets 0.7396. Current price at 0.7694 sits just 65 pips above the 52-week low at 0.7629. TradingView forecasts “Bearish Continuation” with confirmed breakout targeting at least 0.7694, followed by 0.7655. RSI at 35 (oversold but may move lower). The recent advance to 0.76951 is a corrective bounce approaching resistance at 0.7740.
Most probable outcome: range-bound consolidation between 0.7630 and 0.7750 (55 %), as the Warsh deadlock keeps downward pressure whilst proximity to multi-year lows and oversold RSI support modest bounces. Traders should favour tactical longs on dips toward 0.7665–0.7685 targeting 0.7740, with stops below 0.7615. Shorts are reserved for confirmed rejections at 0.7740, targeting 0.7396 and potentially the all-time low at 0.71829.
USDCHF Chart
Economic News relating to USDCHF
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XAUUSD Analysis 16/02/2026 @ 19:30 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Gold is trading at $4993.53, consolidating near record levels following a historic rally of over 74 % in the trailing twelve months. LiteFinance reported the price at $5004.01 on 16 February, JM Bullion quoted $5006.61 (as of 13:41 ET), whilst Trading Economics showed $5061.20 on 11 February (+0.74 % on the session). Gold surpassed $5000 per ounce for the first time in February 2026, supported by expectations of continued Federal Reserve rate cuts, persistent central bank demand, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Federal Reserve & monetary policy. The FOMC held the federal-funds target at 3.50 %–3.75 % on 28 January 2026 following three consecutive 25 bp cuts in late 2025. According to CME Group data (per LiteFinance 16 Feb), the probability of an interest rate cut to 3.25–3.50 % in March stands at 21.1 %. Meanwhile, 78.9 % of market participants expect rates to remain unchanged at 3.50–3.75 %. The Fed’s December 2025 Summary of Economic Projections suggests only one 25 bp rate cut for the entire year of 2026, signalling a “hawkish” outlook. However, financial markets are sceptical: hedge fund manager David Einhorn stated on CNBC on 11 February (5 days ago) that he anticipates the Fed will cut “substantially more than two times” in 2026, citing expectations that incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will argue productivity gains justify cutting “even if the economy is running hot.”
Kevin Warsh – Fed chair nominee impact. President Trump nominated Warsh on 30 January to succeed Powell when his chairmanship expires on 15 May 2026. The announcement triggered a sharp deleveraging move: gold fell roughly 6 % (its biggest daily loss in 12 years) on 21 October 2025 following the nomination news, as the move eased anxieties on Wall Street surrounding Fed independence. However, gold has since recovered, with gold futures up more than 17 % year-to-date in 2026 after surging more than 60 % in 2025. Einhorn noted on CNBC (11 Feb) that whilst Warsh’s track record appears hawkish, he is currently in favour of greater policy easing in 2026 driven by productivity-led growth. As of 15 February, Warsh’s nomination faces a deadlock in the Senate Banking Committee due to Senator Tillis’s vow to block any Fed nominee until the DOJ probe into Powell concludes.
Central bank demand – structural pillar. Central banks globally purchased 863 tonnes of gold in 2025 (per LiteFinance 16 Feb), marking the second-highest annual total in history. The World Gold Council expects central bank demand to ease slightly to 850 tonnes in 2026. China’s PBoC extended its gold purchases for the 15th consecutive month in January 2026. J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts central bank demand at around 190 tonnes per quarter in 2026. Price-inelastic central banks continue to provide a steady source of demand, lifting the price floor and dampening downside volatility.
Investment demand – ETF flows & retail. In 2025, global gold demand rose to 5002 tonnes (per LiteFinance 16 Feb). J.P. Morgan forecasts around 585 tonnes of quarterly investor and central bank demand on average in 2026, comprising around 190 tonnes/quarter from central banks, 330 tonnes/quarter in bar and coin demand, and 275 tonnes of annual demand from ETFs and futures (mainly front-loaded over next year). Wells Fargo stated on 10 February to “buy the gold pullback,” whilst UBS anticipates retail investors should be a strong driver of higher prices in 2026 as they increase allocations to the precious metals complex.
Jewellery sector – demand destruction. Due to exceptionally high prices, global jewellery sales fell 18 % in 2025, with the sharpest decline recorded in China where demand dropped by 24 % (per LiteFinance 16 Feb). This represents a headwind, as the jewellery market accounts for 40 % of gold consumption (per Morgan Stanley).
Analyst targets – bullish consensus. J.P. Morgan: forecasts gold prices averaging $5055/oz by Q4 2026, rising toward $5400/oz by end 2027. Morgan Stanley: revised 2026 gold forecast upward to $4400 per ounce (from previous $3313). Goldman Sachs: projects gold reaching $4900/oz by end 2026. Commerzbank: raised 2026 year-end gold forecast to $4900. World Gold Council: in a “shallow slip” scenario (base case), gold could rise 5–15 % in 2026 from current levels; in a “doom loop” scenario (recession/geopolitical crisis), gold could surge 15–30 %.
Fundamental / Economic Verdict
Verdict – Bullish; structural drivers intact despite near-term consolidationThe medium-term fundamental case remains decisively bullish for gold. Lower interest rates (78.9 % expect Fed hold in March but Einhorn forecasts “substantially more than two cuts” by year-end), continued central bank accumulation (850t expected 2026), strong investment demand (585t/quarter per J.P. Morgan), and geopolitical uncertainty (US-Iran tensions, trade policy volatility, Fed independence concerns) create a supportive backdrop. The Warsh nomination triggered a sharp deleveraging move (6 % daily loss on 21 Oct 2025) but gold has fully recovered, up 17 % year-to-date in 2026. J.P. Morgan ($5055 Q4 2026), Morgan Stanley ($4400 end 2026), and Goldman Sachs ($4900 end 2026) all forecast significant upside. Headwinds include demand destruction in jewellery (down 18 % in 2025, China down 24 %) and the risk of a “hawkish hold” if the economy runs hot. On balance, longs remain structurally favoured for continuation toward $5055–$5400 over H2 2026.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Gold is consolidating at $4993.53, just below the psychological $5000 level. LiteFinance shows $5004.01 on 16 February, whilst Trading Economics peaked at $5061.20 on 11 February. The 52-week range is $2875 – $5431 (the latter representing the all-time high).
LiteFinance analysis (16 Feb, 10 hours ago). A large Rising Wedge pattern is forming, with a downside breakout projected near $4937.88 and a potential target at $4760.74 or lower. A Bearish Belt Hold pattern has formed in the $4996.26–$5052.87 range, signalling increased selling pressure. MACD is hovering near the zero line in negative territory, indicating a lack of strong momentum. RSI remains neutral with a slight downward bias, holding around 46 and suggesting room for further decline. MFI is declining, indicating capital outflows. VWAP and SMA20 are above the market price, suggesting increased selling pressure. Gold prices may remain highly volatile this week amid the release of FOMC minutes, US jobless claims data, and commentary from Federal Reserve officials. For 17 February, XAUUSD is expected to consolidate within the $4937.88–$5107.72 range.
TradingView community analysis. Analysts forecast mixed signals. One notes: “XAUUSD: Liquidity Grab Below Support, Expansion Ahead To $5110. Gold has been trading within a well-defined bullish environment.” Another states: “Gold Relief Bounce or Just a Pause Before the Next Leg Lower? XAUUSD has just delivered a clean structural break on the daily chart, slicing through trend support and accelerating into a fresh low zone.” Key support and resistance levels for the immediate term are $4821.84 (support) and $5107.72 (resistance), per LiteFinance.
Sentiment & positioning. TradingView technical indicators provide mixed signals. Investing.com analysis notes gold continues to trade within a constructive technical framework after rebounding from $4400 and establishing an upward channel. JM Bullion reported gold at $5023.48 per ounce on 16 February, “bouncing back above the $5000 mark after briefly slipping under that threshold as traders reacted to shifting Fed-cut odds and awaited the latest inflation print.”
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Context |
|---|---|---|
| R2 | $5107.72 | LiteFinance consolidation range upper boundary (16 Feb); key resistance for breakout |
| R1 | $5052.87 | Bearish Belt Hold pattern upper boundary; psychological $5050 resistance |
| Current Spot | $4993.53 | User-confirmed · LiteFinance $5004.01 · JM Bullion $5006.61 · just below $5000 |
| S1 | $4937.88 | Rising Wedge breakout level (LiteFinance); consolidation range lower boundary |
| S2 | $4760.74 | Rising Wedge target (LiteFinance 16 Feb); key support if $4937.88 breaks |
Technical Verdict
Verdict – Neutral; consolidation near $5000 with downside risk to $4937–$4760The technical picture is neutral to cautiously bearish in the near term. LiteFinance’s Rising Wedge pattern (16 Feb, 10 hours ago) suggests a downside breakout near $4937.88 targeting $4760.74. The Bearish Belt Hold pattern in the $4996.26–$5052.87 range signals increased selling pressure. RSI at 46 (neutral with downward bias), MACD near zero in negative territory, declining MFI, and VWAP/SMA20 above price all confirm near-term weakness. However, TradingView community analysis notes gold trades within a “constructive technical framework” and a “well-defined bullish environment.” Current price at $4993.53 sits just below the psychological $5000 level. LiteFinance expects consolidation within $4937.88–$5107.72 on 17 Feb. A break above $5107.72 opens $5110 then retests toward the all-time high at $5431. A break below $4937.88 targets $4760.74, though the broader uptrend from $4400 remains intact as long as $4821.84 support holds.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Direction | Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long breakout |
$5010–$5030 (above $5000 psychological) |
$4970 (below consolidation mid) |
TP1 $5107 TP2 $5200 |
Break above $5000 targets LiteFinance resistance $5107.72 then TradingView $5110. Fundamentals bullish (central bank demand, Einhorn “substantially more cuts”). Risk/reward ~1.3:1 to TP1. |
| Short (wedge breakdown) |
$4930–$4950 (fade into $4937.88 breakout) |
$5010 (above $5000 reclaim) |
TP1 $4821 TP2 $4760 |
Rising Wedge breakdown targets $4760.74 per LiteFinance. RSI 46 downward bias, MACD negative, MFI declining. Break of $4937.88 confirms pattern. |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case (50 %): Gold consolidates within $4900–$5110 over the next 3–5 trading days. The psychological $5000 level acts as a pivot. FOMC minutes, US jobless claims, and Fed commentary (per LiteFinance) keep volatility elevated. Neither the $4821.84 support nor the $5107.72 resistance is decisively breached. Price gravitates toward the $4970–$5020 midpoint.
Key assumptions: Fed rhetoric broadly in line with December projections (one cut 2026); Warsh confirmation remains deadlocked but does not escalate; no major geopolitical shock (US-Iran tensions stable); US economic data in line with consensus.
Risk management: Long stops below $4970 (consolidation mid); shorts only on confirmed breakdown below $4937.88; monitor FOMC minutes (release this week per LiteFinance); cross-check silver (hit $92.53 all-time high on 14 Jan, up 6.4 % that session) for broad precious metals sentiment; given proximity to all-time high ($5431), be prepared for extreme volatility if $5107.72 breaks.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Prob. | Target Range | Catalysts / Triggers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consolidation (Base) |
50 % | $4900–$5110 | Fed rhetoric in line (one cut 2026 per Dec projections); Warsh deadlock persists; US data in line; geopolitical tensions stable. The $5107.72 resistance caps rallies; $4937.88 support caps selling. Price churns around $5000 psychological. |
| Bullish Breakout | 30 % | $5110–$5200 | Fed commentary signals more than one cut in 2026 (Einhorn “substantially more than two”); Warsh confirmation clears (dovish signals); US data weakens (supporting rate cut case); geopolitical escalation (US-Iran, trade war). Break above $5107.72 targets $5200 then retest of $5431 all-time high. |
| Wedge Breakdown | 20 % | $4760–$4860 | Fed signals “hawkish hold” (economy running hot); Warsh confirmed with hawkish rhetoric; US data strong (reducing cut odds); geopolitical tensions ease. Rising Wedge breakdown below $4937.88 targets $4760.74 per LiteFinance. Demand destruction in jewellery accelerates. |
Key events – next 7 days:
Summary
The fundamental verdict is decisively bullish. Structural drivers remain intact: lower interest rates (78.9 % expect Fed hold in March but Einhorn forecasts “substantially more than two cuts” by year-end per CNBC 11 Feb), continued central bank accumulation (850t expected 2026), strong investment demand (585t/quarter per J.P. Morgan), and geopolitical uncertainty. The Warsh nomination triggered a 6 % daily loss on 21 Oct 2025 but gold has fully recovered, up 17 % year-to-date in 2026. Analyst targets are bullish: J.P. Morgan $5055 Q4 2026 / $5400 end 2027, Morgan Stanley $4400 end 2026, Goldman Sachs $4900. Headwinds include jewellery demand destruction (down 18 % in 2025, China down 24 %) and risk of a “hawkish hold” if the economy runs hot.
The technical verdict is neutral to cautiously bearish in the near term. LiteFinance’s Rising Wedge (16 Feb, 10 hours ago) suggests downside breakout near $4937.88 targeting $4760.74. Bearish Belt Hold pattern ($4996.26–$5052.87) signals selling pressure. RSI 46 (neutral downward bias), MACD near zero negative, declining MFI, VWAP/SMA20 above price confirm near-term weakness. However, TradingView notes gold trades within a “constructive framework” and “well-defined bullish environment.” Current price $4993.53 sits just below psychological $5000. LiteFinance expects consolidation within $4937.88–$5107.72 on 17 Feb.
Most probable outcome: consolidation between $4900 and $5110 (50 %), as Fed rhetoric (FOMC minutes this week), Warsh deadlock, and mixed technicals keep price range-bound around $5000 psychological. Traders should favour tactical longs on breakouts above $5010–$5030 targeting $5107.72, with stops below $4970. Shorts are reserved for confirmed breakdown below $4937.88, targeting $4760.74. Beyond the 7-day window, the structural bullish case remains intact with J.P. Morgan forecasting $5055 Q4 2026 and $5400 end 2027.
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