secundum Liber Abaci
Praemonitus, Praemunitus
Fibbinarchie
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
USDCHF Analysis 18/02/2026 @ 19:10 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
-
Risk sentiment & safe-haven flows: The Swiss franc continues to benefit from defensive demand amid cautious risk sentiment in broader markets, keeping pressure on USDCHF near key support levels. Recent trading shows consolidation above the 0.7700 threshold while traders await major US Federal Reserve minutes for fresh impetus.
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US economic drivers: Softer US demand and mixed data have also weighed on the US dollar, contributing to recent downside pressure on the pair.
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Monetary policy context: With the Swiss National Bank maintaining an accommodative framework and the Federal Reserve’s stance under market scrutiny, short-term interest rate expectations and yield differentials remain key drivers.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Slightly bearish to neutral. CHF safe-haven demand and tempered USD strength under mixed macro signals favour mild downside risk, though the absence of major catalysts supports range dynamics around current levels.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: 0.7710 (approximate based on recent data)
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 0.7850 (broader resistance cluster) |
| R1 | 0.7740–0.7750 (immediate overhead swing resistance) |
| Current Spot Price | 0.7710 |
| S1 | 0.7600 (near term support) |
| S2 | 0.7500–0.7520 (deeper support zone) |
Technical context:
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Resistance: The 0.7740–0.7750 area has capped recent rallies, with a break above needed to shift bias higher.
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Support: Near-term support is visible around 0.7600, with broader buyers potentially emerging near 0.7500-0.7520.
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Trend & momentum: Recent action shows consolidation near 0.7700 with mixed indicator signals, suggesting a neutral bias unless a clear directional trigger appears.
Technical verdict
Neutral-to-bearish in the short term. Price capped below immediate resistance and recent range behaviour keep technical risk slightly tilted lower, with breakdown below support pointing to deeper losses.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Bias | Entry Zone | Stop | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sell on resistance rejection | Short | 0.7735–0.7750 | >0.7850 | 0.7600 |
| Support breakdown play | Short | <0.7600 | >0.7675 | 0.7500 |
| Support bounce counter-trend | Long | 0.7520–0.7550 | <0.7480 | 0.7670 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Aspect | Expectation |
|---|---|
| Direction (1–2 days) | Range-bound with bearish skew |
| Confirmation criteria | Failure to clear R1 (0.7740–0.7750) |
| Invalidation | Sustained break above R2 (0.7850) |
| Risk considerations | Use defined stops; monitor pending data (Fed minutes) |
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Expected Path |
|---|---|---|
| Bearish continuation | Risk-off flows, USD softness | 0.7600 → 0.7500 |
| Sideways consolidation | Mixed macro cues, low volatility | 0.7600–0.7750 |
| Bullish correction | USD re-acceleration | 0.7740 → 0.7850 |
Summary
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Fundamental / Economic verdict: Current macro dynamics moderately favour CHF strength, maintaining a slight bearish to neutral fundamental bias given safe-haven demand and mixed USD drivers.
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Technical verdict: The technical structure is neutral-to-bearish, with price capped below immediate resistance and key support zones to watch, favouring range-oriented downside bias.
Overall conclusion: USDCHF is positioned for consolidation with downside risk, justifying short exposure on rallies and careful monitoring of key support breaks. Momentum beyond the range will depend on Fed commentary and shifts in risk sentiment.
USDCHF Chart
Economic News relating to USDCHF
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
XAUUSD Analysis 18/02/2026 @ 19:15 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Recent price action for XAU/USD shows gold trading around the key $5,000 per ounce level, with volatility driven by macroeconomic data and policy expectations. Gold briefly dipped below $5,000 after stronger‑than‑expected U.S. jobs data weighed on non‑yielding assets, but then rebounded as softer inflation data rekindled hopes of Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2026.
Other fundamental influences include:
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Monetary policy expectations: Markets are parsing mixed U.S. data—strong employment suggesting rate patience, while softer inflation boosts calls for easing. Fed minutes and future CPI releases remain key catalysts.
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Safe‑haven demand: Geopolitical developments and global risk sentiment continue to influence flows into gold, offsetting some dollar strength.
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Institutional outlook: Large financial institutions maintain a broadly positive medium‑term stance on gold prices, citing factors such as central bank purchases and interest rate uncertainty, though these are not viewed as indicating a broad commodity supercycle.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Neutral‑to‑cautiously bullish. Supportive elements (soft inflation, Fed easing prospects, safe‑haven flows) are balancing short‑term headwinds (firmer dollar, strong labour data). Upcoming policy cues will be influential in shaping direction.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~$4,997 per ounce (latest trading range).
| Level | Price (approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | $5,153 |
| R1 | $5,107 |
| Current Spot Price | $4,997 |
| S1 | $4,880 |
| S2 | $4,820 |
Levels based on recent pivot analysis and key swing zones highlighted in technical commentary.
Technical observations:
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Resistance: Near‑term resistance is clustered around $5,100–$5,110, with broader supply around $5,150+. Breaks above these may signal resumption of upside momentum.
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Support: Immediate support lies near $4,880–$4,880, with deeper floors around $4,820 on extended pullbacks.
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Short‑term price behaviour: Price has tested lower ranges and shown bounce potential from dynamic support such as moving averages and trend channels, though trading remains near pivotal battleground levels.
Technical verdict
Range‑biased consolidation. Gold is trading within a well‑defined range between key support and resistance, with the near‑term trend dependent on decisive breaks of these levels. Momentum remains balanced with both upside and downside catalysts present.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Trigger | Entry Zone | Stop | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish breakout | Hold above R1 ($5,107) | 5,110–5,130 | <5,080 | R2 ($5,153) |
| Sell the rally | Rejection near R1 ($5,107) | 5,085–5,105 | >5,110 | S1 ($4,880) |
| Support‑based long | Price holds S1 ($4,880) | 4,880–4,910 | <4,850 | R1 ($5,107) |
Trade ideas reflect current pivot structure and recent intraday responses at key zones.
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Market Condition | Base Case (next 1–2 days) |
|---|---|
| Direction | Range‑bound around 4,880–5,107 |
| Confirmation | Break and hold above R1 for bullish conviction |
| Invalidation | Sustained breach below S1 for downside risk |
| Risk controls | Tight stops at invalidation points; avoid oversized exposure |
The base case anticipates continued range trading amid macro uncertainty, with key levels guiding directional cues.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Expected Path |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish breakout | Dovish Fed cues, weaker USD, renewed safe‑haven demand | >R1 ($5,107) → R2 ($5,153) |
| Range continuation | Mixed macro, neutral sentiment | Trade within S1–R1 |
| Bearish correction | Strong USD, hawkish surprises | <S1 ($4,880) → S2 ($4,820) |
Summary
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Fundamental / Economic verdict: XAUUSD is supported by a combination of soft inflation data, potential rate cuts, and safe‑haven flows, but strong USD and mixed labour data add caution, resulting in a neutral‑to‑bullish bias.
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Technical verdict: The pair is range‑bound between clear support and resistance, with momentum suggesting consolidation around current levels.
Conclusion: In the short term, XAUUSD remains in a defined consolidation zone, offering both breakout and range‑trading opportunities. A decisive move beyond resistance would reaffirm bullish prospects, while a clear break below support could signal deeper correction. Structured, risk‑aware strategies tied to these pivotal levels are advisable.
XAUUSD Chart
Economic News relating to XAUUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURUSD Analysis 18/02/2026 @ 19:30 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
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Central bank expectations remain the anchor: The market continues to price both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve in extended holding patterns. However, US policy is still perceived as relatively tighter for longer, maintaining a modest yield advantage for the dollar.
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Eurozone macro tone: Euro area growth remains subdued but stable, with inflation broadly controlled. This supports policy stability but offers little catalyst for sustained euro appreciation in the near term.
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US data resilience: Recent US macro releases have continued to show underlying resilience, supporting USD demand during neutral or mildly risk‑off sentiment and limiting EURUSD upside follow‑through.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Neutral to mildly USD‑supportive. The fundamental backdrop suggests capped EURUSD upside, with the dollar retaining an advantage unless US data weaken meaningfully or global risk sentiment shifts decisively in favour of the euro.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: 1.0865 (indicative prevailing market level).
EURUSD remains in consolidation mode, trading within a clearly defined short‑term range.
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 1.1025 |
| R1 | 1.0955 |
| Current Spot Price | 1.0865 |
| S1 | 1.0790 |
| S2 | 1.0710 |
Technical observations:
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Range structure intact: Price continues to oscillate between support near 1.0790 and resistance around 1.0955, indicating balanced participation.
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Overhead supply: The 1.0955–1.1025 zone remains a notable supply area where prior rallies have stalled.
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Downside risk: A decisive break below S1 would expose the pair to a deeper corrective move toward S2.
Technical verdict
Neutral / range‑bound. Momentum remains indecisive while EURUSD trades between 1.0790 and 1.0955. Directional clarity is likely only on a sustained break beyond these boundaries.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Trigger | Direction | Entry Zone | Stop | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Range fade (sell) | Rejection near R1/R2 | Short | 1.0950–1.1015 | >1.1060 | 1.0865 → 1.0790 |
| Range fade (buy) | Hold above S1 | Long | 1.0790–1.0820 | <1.0750 | 1.0920 |
| Breakout continuation | Sustained break >R2 | Long | >1.1025 | <1.0955 | 1.1120 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Horizon | Base Case (next 1–2 days) |
|---|---|
| Direction | Sideways consolidation |
| Confirmation | Acceptance above R1 or below S1 |
| Invalidation | Failed breaks returning inside the range |
| Risk controls | Reduced exposure within the range; stops placed just beyond key levels |
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Expected Path |
|—|—|
| Bullish breakout | USD softening, improved risk appetite | Break >1.1025 → 1.1120+ |
| Range continuation | Mixed macro signals | Trade 1.0790–1.0955 |
| Bearish extension | Renewed USD strength | Break <1.0790 → 1.0710 |
Summary
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Fundamental / Economic verdict: The macro environment remains neutral with a mild USD bias, restraining sustained EURUSD upside.
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Technical verdict: Price action is range‑bound, with clearly defined resistance at 1.0955–1.1025 and support at 1.0790–1.0710.
Conclusion: The short‑term outlook favours tactical range‑based strategies rather than trend‑following. A clear and sustained break beyond current support or resistance levels is required to signal a more durable directional move in EURUSD.
EURUSD Chart
Economic News relating to EURUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
CHFJPY Analysis 18/02/2026 @ 20:05 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
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Risk sentiment influence: The Swiss franc and Japanese yen are both considered safe-haven currencies, meaning CHF/JPY often strengthens during risk-off environments but can be subdued in risk-on phases depending on equity and bond market directions. Recent broad market indicators (e.g. higher equity volatility in some sectors) have favoured defensive FX flows.
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Monetary policy dynamics: The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues an accommodative policy stance, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has shifted away from ultra-accommodation but remains cautious. Relative policy expectations — including interest differentials and carry dynamics — continue to support modest CHF strength relative to JPY in the very short term.
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Macro data drivers: Japan’s macro data and yields have influenced the yen’s performance against many majors and crosses; stronger JPY episodes can tighten CHF/JPY ranges and cap upside. Cross-market drivers such as global bond yields, JPY demand from safe-haven flows, and Swiss current account resilience are relevant to CFHY behavior.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Neutral to mildly supportive bias for CHF/JPY. Safe-haven dynamics and mild policy divergence provide a supportive backdrop, but lack of clear macro catalysts means fundamental drivers are balanced rather than decisively directional.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~199.94 JPY (rounded live estimate).
| Level | Price (approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~202.78–203.62 (upper resistance cluster near 52-week highs) |
| R1 | ~200.60–200.78 (short-term pivot resistance) |
| Current Spot Price | ~199.94 |
| S1 | ~198.49–198.80 (immediate support) |
| S2 | ~197.93–197.11 (broader support band) |
Technical context:
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Range dynamics: Price has been trading near the upper end of a consolidation range, with resistance around 200.60–202.78 and support clustering near 198.49–197.11.
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Trend bias: Longer-term technical trend indicators broadly show constructive behaviour with elevated YTD performance and proximity to 52-week highs, but short-term momentum is mixed and leaning neutral around key pivot bands.
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Sentiment signals: Positioning data from popular retail brokers suggests a higher percentage of short positioning, which can create a contrarian technical dynamic if momentum shifts upward.
Technical verdict
Neutral with potential upside breakout. CHF/JPY remains in a defined range. A decisive break above R1 could propel further gains toward R2, whereas a failure near resistance or a break below S1 could re-establish consolidation or corrective pullback.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Trigger | Entry Zone | Stop | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish breakout continuation | Sustained break above R1 | Long 200.70–201.10 | Below 199.30 | 202.50–202.78 |
| Resistance rejection range sell | Rejection near R1 | Short 200.20–200.60 | Above 202.00 | S1 (~198.80) |
| Support bounce play | Support holds at S1 | Long 198.50–198.90 | Below S2 | R1 (~200.60) |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Aspect | Base Case (next 1–2 days) |
|---|---|
| Direction | Range-bound with mild bullish bias |
| Confirmation | Holds S1 and tests R1 |
| Invalidation | Daily close below S2 |
| Risk controls | Tight stops near key pivot levels; trim size near resistance |
The base case anticipates continued oscillation within the range, with careful monitoring for breakout confirmation above resistance or breakdown triggers below support.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Expected Path |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | Renewed risk-off, CHF demand | Break above R1 → R2 test |
| Neutral consolidation | Mixed macro data | Sideways between S1 and R1 |
| Corrective pullback | JPY strengthens or risk rallies | Break below S1 → S2 |
Summary
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Fundamental / Economic verdict: CHF/JPY exhibits a neutral to mildly supportive fundamental tone, underpinned by safe-haven currency characteristics and modest relative policy divergence, but lacking a strong macro catalyst for immediate direction.
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Technical verdict: The technical landscape is neutral with upside potential as long as key support holds and resistance levels are tested. Breakouts above pivotal resistance R1 could validate bullish momentum, while failure at resistance or breach of support zones could reinforce range behaviour.
Overall conclusion: Short-term CHF/JPY is best approached through defined, level-based strategies. Monitoring support and resistance clusters offers clear risk-managed entry and exit opportunities, with breakout confirmation being a key signal for trending extension.
CHFJPY Chart
Economic News relating to CHFJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURJPY Analysis 18/02/2026 @ 20:00 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
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Monetary policy differentials: Expectations around the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) continue to influence EUR/JPY. The ECB is widely seen keeping policy steady, while markets have increasingly priced in gradual BoJ normalisation, supporting yen strength via yield adjustments relative to the euro.
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Risk sentiment impact: EUR/JPY remains sensitive to global risk appetite. In recent sessions, price action around critical technical levels has reflected investor caution and intermittent safe‑haven demand for the JPY, tempering sustained euro advances.
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Macro data environment: Eurozone growth indicators and inflation remain mixed, offering limited directional impetus, while Japanese economic sentiment and labour cost dynamics add complexity to the near‑term currency outlook.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
The short‑term fundamental environment is broadly neutral to mildly supportive of yen strength, with policy divergence and risk flows subtly favouring corrective pressure on the euro‑yen cross.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~181.60–181.85 JPY based on recent exchange data.
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 183.00 |
| R1 | 182.50 |
| Current Spot Price | 181.60–181.85 |
| S1 | 181.27 |
| S2 | 177.96 |
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Resistance zones: Near‑term technical resistance resides around 182.50–183.00, where prior price advances have encountered selling pressure.
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Support levels: The 38.2% retracement around S1 (~181.27) has been a pivotal short‑term support; a sustained breach could signal deeper correction. Levels around S2 (~177.96) are referenced in broader retracement frameworks.
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Market structure: Technical indicators and sentiment suggest neutral to corrective action with consolidation dominating near this price cluster, absent a decisive breakout above resistance or break below key support.
Technical verdict
EUR/JPY’s short‑term technical profile is neutral with a bearish tilt while trading below R1 (182.50). Continued consolidation near support underscores the importance of S1, with momentum biased toward corrective outcomes absent clear breakout strength.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Trigger | Entry Zone | Stop | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance sell | Price rejects R1 (182.50) | Short 182.30–182.60 | >183.20 | S1 (181.27) |
| Support bounce | Holds S1 (181.27) | Long 181.20–181.50 | <180.80 | R1 (182.50) |
| Breakout above R2 | Sustained close > 183.00 | Long 183.10 | <182.40 | Upside momentum continuation |
Trades focus on reactions around defined levels, with disciplined invalidation.
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Aspect | Expectation (next 1–2 days) |
|---|---|
| Direction | Sideways with mild downside bias |
| Confirmation | Failure to reclaim R1 as resistance |
| Invalidation | Sustained daily close above 183.00 |
| Risk Controls | Tight stops placed just beyond key pivots; scale exposure into consolidations |
Price structure suggests range‑based trading with emphasis on clarity around R1 and S1.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Expected Path |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral consolidation | Mixed macro and lack of breakout | Range S1–R1 |
| Deeper correction | Risk‑off sentiment dominates | Break <S1 → test S2 |
| Upside recovery | Strong euro data or risk‑on | Break >R2 → higher levels |
Summary
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Fundamental / Economic verdict: Near‑term fundamentals are neutral to mildly supportive of the yen, underpinned by policy divergence and risk sentiment influences.
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Technical verdict: EUR/JPY is technically neutral with bearish tendencies while below resistance at 182.50–183.00, with immediate support at 181.27 critical to range integrity.
Conclusion: Current conditions point to range‑bound and corrective action in EUR/JPY, suggesting tactical strategies anchored to well‑defined support and resistance levels, with risk management centred on breakouts or breakdowns from this consolidation band.
EURJPY Chart
Economic News relating to EURJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
USDJPY Analysis 18/02/2026 @ 20:15 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
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Monetary policy and macro data: Mixed macroeconomic signals are shaping USD/JPY. Recent weaker‑than‑expected U.S. inflation data and indications of steady Federal Reserve policy have softened dollar strength, while markets are pricing in a possibility of future rate cuts.
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Yen strength factors: The Japanese yen has seen notable appreciation pressure, posting strong weekly gains recently as risk sentiment and political outcomes in Japan have supported the currency.
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Intervention and central bank vigilance: Comments from Japanese authorities and intervention risk narratives continue to influence sentiment, with the potential for verbal or actual intervention when the yen weakens significantly.
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Risk sentiment: Risk‑off flows and geopolitical tensions have also driven safe‑haven demand for the yen, weighing on USD/JPY movements.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Neutral to modestly bearish USD/JPY bias near term. A softer U.S. dollar outlook combined with yen support from policy vigilance and macro factors suggests downside pressure on the pair, although uneven data and intervention dynamics temper the strength of this bias.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~154.48 JPY per USD (latest market data).
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 156.50 |
| R1 | 155.25 |
| Current Spot Price | 154.48 |
| S1 | 153.00 |
| S2 | 151.50 |
Support and resistance derive from recent quotes, psychological levels and technical pivot observations in the current market context.
Technical observations:
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Recent price action shows USD/JPY consolidating in a defined range, with upper resistance near 155.25–156.50 and a support band around 153.00–151.50 as traders await fresh catalysts.
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Momentum indicators suggest bearish pressure at lower levels, with weakness around moving average clusters noted in broader technical commentary.
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Breaks above resistance or below support bands in this consolidation would inform directional conviction in the near term.
Technical verdict
Neutral to bearish near term. The pair is contained in a range with downside pressure visible, while upside remains capped by key resistance. A decisive break below S1 (153.00) could reinforce bearish sentiment, whereas reclaiming above R1 (155.25) would weaken the downward narrative.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Trigger | Entry Zone | Stop | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish continuation | Rejection near R1 (155.25) | Short 154.80–155.40 | >155.80 | S1 (153.00) → S2 (151.50) |
| Support bounce | Hold above S1 (153.00) | Long 153.00–153.50 | <152.50 | R1 (155.25) |
| Bull breakout | Break and hold >R2 (156.50) | Long above breakout | <155.00 | 158.00+ |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Market Condition | Base Case (next 1–2 days) |
|---|---|
| Direction | Neutral‑to‑bearish around current range |
| Confirmation | Continued support at S1 (153.00) and resistance at R1 (155.25) |
| Invalidation | Break above R1 (155.25) |
| Risk Controls | Defined stops near resistance on bearish trades; reduce size on support breakouts |
The base case assumes range‑bound movement with a bias toward the downside unless clear upside breakout triggers occur.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Expected Path |
|---|---|---|
| Bearish continuation | USD softness persists & safe‑haven flows strengthen yen | Break <S1 (153.00) → S2 (151.50) |
| Range consolidation | Mixed macro news and data releases | Range 153.00–155.25 |
| Upside reversal | Dollar strength returns or intervention risk recedes | Break >R1 (155.25) → R2 (156.50) |
Summary
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Fundamental / Economic verdict: The backdrop shows a neutral to modestly bearish theme for USD/JPY near term, influenced by a softer U.S. dollar outlook, yen strength, and potential intervention considerations.
-
Technical verdict: Technical sentiment is neutral to bearish, with the pair range‑bound and downside pressure visible beneath key resistance.
Conclusion: The combined outlook suggests range‑focused price action with a bearish bias near term. Traders may benefit from strategies that emphasise defined risk around support and resistance levels and react to breakouts in either direction as fresh macro catalysts emerge.
USDJPY Chart
Economic News relating to USDJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
GBPUSD Analysis 18/02/2026 @ 21:12 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
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UK labour and growth data: Recent UK employment figures showed the unemployment rate rising to a multi-year high, and wage growth moderating. This has reinforced expectations of a forthcoming interest rate cut by the Bank of England, likely to ease monetary policy to support economic activity. Such a dynamic typically weakens sterling relative to peers.
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Monetary policy divergence: Markets currently price a scenario where the BoE is more likely to ease than tighten, while the Federal Reserve remains data dependent with less urgency to cut. This divergence can tilt near-term GBPUSD direction lower.
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USD performance: The US dollar has recently shown intermittent strength, buoyed by soft inflation expectations in the US and expectations of future rate cuts that could cap aggressive dollar moves. This has left the dollar supported at key levels.
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Risk and sentiment drivers: Broader risk sentiment remains mixed, with traders awaiting key US inflation and UK CPI data that may add volatility and influence directional bias as markets weigh macro expectations.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Neutral to mildly bearish for GBPUSD short term. Weakening UK macro data and dovish BoE outlook contrast with a relatively resilient USD and mixed global sentiment, suggesting limited near-term sterling strength.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~1.3498 (approximate live reference).
Short-term price structure shows the pair trading within a defined range, with key pivot and technical zones providing reference for support and resistance.
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 1.3705 |
| R1 | 1.3637 |
| Current Spot Price | 1.3498 |
| S1 | 1.3499 / 1.3507 (short-term pivot) |
| S2 | 1.3428 – 1.3342 (double support area) |
Levels are informed by recent pivot constructions and technical analyses, recognising both traditional pivot points and structural support ranges.
Technical observations:
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Price remains below major near-term resistance levels around 1.3637–1.3705, with upside attempts capped.
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Support around 1.3500–1.3428 has been tested, with deeper support evident near 1.3342 if current levels break.
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Momentum indicators (such as RSI and MACD) signal neutral to bearish conditions, with limited directional conviction until key technical thresholds are resolved.
Technical verdict
Neutral to slightly bearish structurally. GBPUSD trades within a range with bias tending toward the downside while below key resistance, requiring a break below S2 for an expanded bearish structure.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Trigger | Direction | Entry Zone | Stop | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance rejection | Price fails near R1 / R2 | Short | 1.3600–1.3700 | >1.3720 | S1 (1.3500) |
| Support bounce | Holds near S1 | Long | 1.3480–1.3520 | <1.3420 | R1 (1.3637) |
| Breakdown continuation | Close < S2 | Short | Below 1.3425 | >1.3500 | 1.3300 |
Intraday setups focus on clear acceptance/rejection around structural levels, using disciplined stops just beyond invalidation points.
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Horizon | Base Case (next 1–2 days) |
|---|---|
| Direction | Range-bound with mild downside bias |
| Confirmation | Failure to reclaim R1/R2 and downside momentum continuation |
| Invalidation | Sustained break above R2 |
| Risk controls | Position sizing aligned to volatility; stops outside S2/R2 zones |
Base case remains consolidative near current levels, with range dynamics limiting strong trending impulse until breakout thresholds are tested.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Expected Path |
|---|---|---|
| Bearish continuation | UK macro softness persists, USD strengthens | Break < S2 → deeper retracement toward 1.3300 |
| Range consolidation | Mixed macro data; no clear catalyst | Sideways movement 1.3425–1.3637 |
| Bullish correction | USD weakens, risk sentiment improves | Break > R2 → challenge 1.3800+ |
Summary
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Fundamental / Economic verdict: GBPUSD exhibits a neutral to mildly bearish fundamental tone, underpinned by weak UK data and dovish BoE expectations, while USD remains supported by relative resilience.
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Technical verdict: Technical structure is range-bound with slight bearish tendencies, with key support and resistance clearly mapped and requiring decisive breaks for trend expansion.
Conclusion: GBPUSD is trading within a consolidative range, showing mild downside bias. Strategy should prioritise defined support/resistance trading, with cautious positioning and clear risk management. Decisive moves beyond R2 or below S2 will define the next directional phase.
GBPUSD Chart
Economic News relating to GBPUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURGBP Analysis 18/02/2026 @ 20:45 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
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Eurozone dynamics: Short-term euro fundamentals remain stable but subdued. Growth momentum is modest, inflation pressures are contained, and policy expectations point to a continued pause from the European Central Bank. This backdrop limits aggressive euro upside but reduces the probability of sharp downside moves.
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UK macro environment: The UK outlook continues to show mixed signals. Activity data suggest stabilisation rather than acceleration, while expectations around future easing by the Bank of England temper sustained Sterling strength.
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Relative balance: With no clear macro divergence between the two economies, EURGBP remains driven by relative sentiment and positioning rather than decisive economic catalysts.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Neutral short-term fundamental bias. Current conditions favour consolidation, with limited scope for a sustained directional move unless new data materially shifts relative rate or growth expectations.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: 0.8685 (indicative)
EURGBP remains technically range-bound, trading close to its recent midpoint. Volatility is compressed and momentum indicators are muted, consistent with consolidation.
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 0.8785 |
| R1 | 0.8730 |
| Current Spot Price | 0.8685 |
| S1 | 0.8640 |
| S2 | 0.8575 |
Technical observations:
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Repeated failures near R1 highlight limited upside conviction.
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Buying interest has consistently emerged near S1, reinforcing the sideways structure.
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A sustained move outside the current range would likely be required to trigger momentum expansion.
Technical verdict
Neutral to mildly range-bearish while below 0.8730 (R1). A clear break above resistance would be needed to shift the short-term bias more constructively higher.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Trigger | Entry Zone | Stop | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Range sell | Rejection near R1 | 0.8720–0.8740 | >0.8790 | 0.8650 |
| Range buy | Support holds at S1 | 0.8645–0.8660 | <0.8615 | 0.8725 |
| Breakout buy | Sustained break above R2 | >0.8790 | <0.8730 | 0.8860 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Aspect | Base Case (next 1–2 days) |
|---|---|
| Direction | Range-bound consolidation |
| Market behaviour | Respect of S1 and R1 |
| Invalidation | Sustained break outside 0.8575–0.8785 |
| Risk management | Tight stops; reduced exposure near mid-range |
The base case assumes continued consolidation while macro and technical signals remain balanced.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Expected Path |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation (base case) | Mixed UK and euro data | 0.8640–0.8730 |
| Bullish EURGBP | UK data underperforms or GBP weakens | Break above 0.8785 |
| Bearish EURGBP | Sterling improves on sentiment/data | Break below 0.8575 |
Summary
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Fundamental / Economic verdict: The short-term macro backdrop is neutral, with neither the euro nor the pound showing a decisive economic advantage.
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Technical verdict: Range-bound conditions dominate, with resistance at 0.8730–0.8785 and support at 0.8640–0.8575.
Overall conclusion: EURGBP remains in a consolidation phase. Until a clear break of key support or resistance occurs, short-term strategies focused on trading the established range are favoured over directional trend positioning.
EURGBP Chart
Economic News relating to EURGBP
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
GBPJPY Analysis 18/02/2026 @ 22:30 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
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UK rate-cut repricing is pressuring GBP: UK CPI has dropped to 3.0% (January), reinforcing market expectations that the Bank of England could begin easing as soon as March. This tends to weigh on GBP (and GBP crosses) via a narrowing forward yield advantage.
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Japan macro signals are mixed but supportive for JPY sentiment: Japan’s exports surged in January and business sentiment improved, but the IMF highlighted downside risks and fiscal concerns, keeping attention on policy credibility and risk appetite. In risk-off phases, JPY typically benefits regardless of domestic fundamentals.
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Risk sentiment remains the swing factor for GBPJPY: GBPJPY is highly sensitive to global risk conditions (carry-trade behaviour). With BoE cuts being priced and risk sentiment prone to swings, near-term fundamentals lean towards capped upside unless risk appetite improves materially.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Neutral-to-bearish (short term). BoE easing expectations following softer UK inflation tilt the balance against GBP, while JPY retains defensive appeal during risk-off phases.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: 208.91
Support / Resistance Levels (short term)
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 210.00 |
| R1 | 209.22 |
| Current Spot Price | 208.91 |
| S1 | 207.63 |
| S2 | 207.00 (break-risk level) |
Technical context:
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Structure: Short-term trend bias has turned negative below 210.00, with rallies struggling to sustain above the 209–210 supply zone.
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Resistance: 209.22 (R1) is the top of today’s observed range; 210.00 (R2) remains a key psychological/technical cap.
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Support: 207.63 (S1) is the lower bound of today’s range; risk increases on a clean break under ~207, which can open scope for a deeper pullback.
Technical verdict
Neutral-to-bearish (short term). Price is holding mid-range but remains capped beneath 209.22/210.00; momentum favours sellers on rallies unless 210.00 is reclaimed and held.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Trigger | Bias | Entry Zone | Stop (guidance) | Target Zone(s) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fade resistance | Rejection between R1–R2 | Sell | 209.10–210.00 | >210.35 | 208.20 → 207.63 |
| Range buy (tactical) | Hold above S1 with bounce | Buy | 207.70–208.10 | <207.00 | 209.00 → 209.22 |
| Breakdown continuation | Sustained move < S1 | Sell | <207.55 | >208.20 | 207.00 (then reassess) |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Item | Base Case (next 24–48h) |
|---|---|
| Market state | Range-to-bearish under 210.00 |
| Preferred approach | Sell rallies into 209.22–210.00 while price stays capped |
| Confirmation | Failure at/near R1 with lower highs; or break below S1 |
| Invalidation | Sustained hold above 210.00 (reduces bearish edge) |
| Risk controls | Tight stops near level edges; reduce exposure around high-impact UK/JP releases |
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Expected Path |
|---|---|---|
| Bearish extension | BoE cut pricing strengthens / risk-off persists | 207.63 breaks → 207.00 risk level (scope for deeper pullback if follow-through) |
| Range consolidation | Mixed data / stabilising risk appetite | Rotation between 207.63–209.22, with 210.00 capping |
| Bullish recovery | Risk-on rebound + reduced BoE cut urgency | Reclaim 209.22 → challenge 210.00; a sustained break improves upside odds |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Neutral-to-bearish: softer UK inflation and rising BoE cut expectations are a headwind for GBP, while JPY remains supported by defensive flows during risk-off conditions.
Technical verdict
Neutral-to-bearish: price remains capped below R1 209.22 and R2 210.00, with downside risk increasing on a break under S1 207.63 and especially near 207.00.
Overall conclusion: Short-term conditions favour selling rallies into resistance while GBPJPY remains below 210.00, with a continued focus on range discipline unless price breaks decisively beyond R2 (bullish shift) or below S1/207.00 (bearish continuation).
GBPJPY Chart
Economic News relating to GBPJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
XAGUSD Analysis 18/02/2026 @ 22:37 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
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Macro drivers (USD & rates): Recent precious-metals weakness has been linked to stronger US data reinforcing the view that the Fed may keep rates higher for longer, which tends to weigh on non-yielding assets such as silver.
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Geopolitics & safe-haven rotation: Silver has softened amid signs of easing geopolitical risk appetite, with markets reducing safe-haven bids when diplomacy appears to progress.
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Physical fundamentals (structural support): Industry bodies continue to flag a multi-year structural deficit (demand exceeding supply) expected to persist through 2026, implying underlying tightness even if near-term prices remain macro-driven.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Neutral to mildly supportive: the structural deficit backdrop is supportive, but short-term direction is dominated by USD/rates and risk sentiment, which can override supply-demand tightness over days.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: 75.69
Recent session range (high/low) suggests well-defined near-term reference points for support/resistance.
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 78.53 |
| R1 | 77.11 |
| Current Spot Price | 75.69 |
| S1 | 73.28 |
| S2 | 70.87 |
Support / resistance emphasis
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Resistance: 77.11 (R1) is the first barrier; a sustained push above it increases probability of a retest of 78.53 (R2).
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Support: 73.28 (S1) is the key near-term floor; a decisive break increases downside risk towards 70.87 (S2).
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Sentiment: price sits below R1, implying rallies may meet supply unless momentum and risk sentiment improve.
Technical verdict
Neutral with a slight bearish skew while below 77.11 (R1); bullish continuation improves only on a clean break and hold above R1, while loss of 73.28 (S1) would shift bias more clearly bearish.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Trigger | Entry Zone | Invalidation (stop logic) | Target(s) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sell rally into resistance | Rejection / failure near R1 | 76.90–77.10 | Sustained trade > 77.50 | 75.70 → 73.30 |
| Buy support reaction | Strong hold/reversal at S1 | 73.30–73.60 | Sustained trade < 72.90 | 75.70 → 77.10 |
| Breakout long | Break & hold above R1 | > 77.20 | Back below 76.80 | 78.50 |
| Breakdown short | Break & hold below S1 | < 73.20 | Back above 73.70 | 70.90 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Element | Base case (next 1–3 sessions) |
|---|---|
| Expected behaviour | Range-to-volatile trade between S1 (73.28) and R1 (77.11) |
| Bias | Slightly bearish below R1, tactical two-way trading |
| Key invalidation | Sustained break above R1 (bullish shift) |
| Risk controls | Prefer smaller sizing; avoid chasing mid-range; use level-based stops due to volatility |
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Expected path |
|---|---|---|
| Bearish continuation | Firmer USD / “higher for longer” rates narrative persists | Below R1 → retest S1; break risks S2 |
| Range consolidation | Mixed macro signals, stabilising risk sentiment | Mean-reversion between S1–R1 |
| Bullish recovery | Softer US data / easing USD / renewed risk-off bid | Break R1 → challenge R2 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Neutral to mildly supportive on structural grounds (deficit/tightness), but macro (USD, rates, risk sentiment) remains the main short-term driver.
Technical verdict: Neutral to slightly bearish while below 77.11 (R1), with 73.28 (S1) the key downside pivot and 78.53 (R2) the upside gateway if momentum returns.
Overall conclusion: The near-term outlook favours tactical, level-driven execution: sell rallies that fail under R1, buy only confirmed support reactions at S1, and treat breaks of R1/S1 as signals for a regime shift rather than mid-range noise.
XAGUSD Chart
Economic News relating to XAGUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
