secundum Liber Abaci
Praemonitus, Praemunitus
Fibbinarchie
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
USDCHF Analysis 24/01/2026 @ 15:05
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
USDCHF continues to trade under the influence of relative monetary policy divergence and risk-sensitive flows. The US Dollar remains pressured by expectations that the Federal Reserve is closer to the end of its tightening cycle, with markets increasingly focused on growth moderation and easing financial conditions later in 2026. This has reduced USD yield support in the short term.
Conversely, the Swiss Franc continues to benefit from its defensive and capital-preservation characteristics, particularly amid intermittent risk aversion across global equity and credit markets. Switzerland’s stable macro environment and low inflation profile reinforce CHF demand during periods of uncertainty.
With trading taking place on a Saturday, market activity is extremely thin. Any price movement should be interpreted as positioning-related rather than driven by fresh macro or policy developments.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short-term fundamentals maintain a bearish bias for USDCHF, driven by softer USD sentiment and persistent CHF safe-haven demand. No immediate macro catalyst suggests a reversal of this bias.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
USDCHF remains in a clear short-term downtrend, characterised by lower highs and sustained trading below key resistance levels. Momentum indicators remain negative, although price is now approaching a technically significant support zone where selling pressure may temporarily ease.
Current Spot Price: 0.7802
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 0.7920 |
| R1 | 0.7855 |
| Current Spot Price | 0.7802 |
| S1 | 0.7740 |
| S2 | 0.7685 |
Technical verdict
The technical structure is bearish but stretched near support. While downside risks remain dominant below 0.7855, proximity to S1 and S2 increases the likelihood of short-term consolidation or corrective rebounds.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday Setup and Trade Ideas
Market condition note: Weekend liquidity is extremely limited. Any intraday positioning should be conservative, with reduced size and wider risk allowances.
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sell rallies | 0.7840 – 0.7860 | 0.7740 → 0.7700 | Sustained move above 0.7920 |
| Break-and-hold sell | Below 0.7740 | 0.7700 → 0.7685 | Reclaim above 0.7800 |
| Countertrend buy (tactical) | 0.7685 – 0.7740 | 0.7800 | Daily hold below 0.7640 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
The base case anticipates continued downside pressure or range-bound behaviour near support. Any rebounds are considered corrective unless price reclaims and holds above 0.7855. Risk management is critical given weekend conditions and potential opening gaps.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Bearish continuation (base case) | USD remains soft, CHF demand persists | 0.7685 – 0.7855 |
| Accelerated downside | Renewed risk-off sentiment | Below 0.7685 |
| Corrective recovery | Profit-taking and sentiment stabilisation | 0.7855 – 0.7920 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Short-term fundamentals favour CHF strength over USD, maintaining downward pressure on USDCHF.
Technical verdict: The pair remains bearish, though nearing support where momentum may slow and consolidation may emerge.
Overall conclusion: USDCHF retains a negative short-term outlook, favouring sell-on-rallies strategies, with heightened caution advised due to weekend liquidity constraints and proximity to key support levels.
USDCHF Chart
Economic News relating to USDCHF
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
XAUUSD Analysis 24/01/2026 @ 15:25
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Gold remains firmly supported by a combination of softer US Dollar dynamics, easing real yield expectations, and persistent macro and geopolitical uncertainty. Markets continue to price a slower US growth trajectory into 2026, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve is closer to policy normalisation rather than renewed tightening. This environment remains structurally supportive for non-yielding assets such as gold.
In addition, central bank diversification flows and sustained investor demand for hard assets continue to underpin the medium-term narrative. While no fresh macro releases are influencing price action during the weekend, the broader backdrop remains constructive for bullion.
Saturday trading conditions imply very thin liquidity, meaning price action is more reflective of positioning and technical levels rather than new fundamental information.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short-term fundamentals remain supportive to bullish for XAUUSD, with no material drivers suggesting a trend reversal. The risk balance favours consolidation or continuation higher rather than sustained downside.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
XAUUSD remains in a strong bullish structure, holding well above prior breakout levels. Momentum has moderated after recent advances, but price continues to respect higher lows, suggesting trend continuation rather than distribution.
Current Spot Price: 4985.91
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 5100.00 |
| R1 | 5035.00 |
| Current Spot Price | 4985.91 |
| S1 | 4920.00 |
| S2 | 4850.00 |
Technical verdict
The technical outlook remains bullish but extended. While upside continuation is favoured, proximity to resistance suggests potential short-term consolidation or shallow pullbacks toward S1 before renewed buying interest.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday Setup and Trade Ideas
Liquidity note: Weekend conditions significantly reduce depth. All intraday positioning should be treated as tactical and risk-adjusted.
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy pullbacks | 4920 – 4945 | 5035 → 5100 | Sustained move below 4850 |
| Momentum continuation | Break & hold above 5035 | 5100 | Failure back below 4980 |
| Countertrend sell (tactical) | 5035 – 5100 | 4985 → 4920 | Daily hold above 5100 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
The base case anticipates range-to-higher behaviour, with dips expected to attract buyers above the 4920 support zone. Risk remains skewed to the upside while price holds above 4850, with any downside viewed as corrective rather than trend-changing.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation (base case) | Yield pressure persists, USD remains soft | 4920 – 5150 |
| Consolidation | Profit-taking after strong run | 4850 – 5035 |
| Extension breakout | Renewed risk-off or macro shock | Above 5100 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Macro conditions continue to favour gold, supported by real yield dynamics, USD softness, and defensive allocation demand.
Technical verdict: The structure remains bullish, though extended, favouring pullback-buying rather than aggressive chasing at highs.
Overall conclusion: XAUUSD maintains a constructive short-term outlook, with a bias toward consolidation or further upside. Risk-managed long strategies on dips remain preferred while key supports hold.
XAUUSD Chart
Economic News relating to XAUUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURUSD Analysis 24/01/2026 @ 15:45
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
EURUSD continues to trade within a USD-driven macro environment, with recent price behaviour reflecting a gradual softening in US Dollar demand rather than a material improvement in Eurozone fundamentals. Markets remain positioned around expectations of slower US growth, easing inflation pressures, and a Federal Reserve that is closer to the end of its restrictive phase.
In contrast, the Eurozone outlook remains mixed. While recession risks have stabilised, growth remains subdued and policy divergence with the US has narrowed rather than reversed. As a result, EURUSD gains are currently more a function of USD repricing than a strong EUR-led recovery.
With trading taking place over a weekend session, liquidity conditions are thin, and near-term moves are primarily technical in nature rather than driven by fresh economic information.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short-term fundamentals are mildly supportive for EURUSD, driven by USD softness, but lack sufficient Eurozone conviction to justify aggressive upside follow-through without confirmation from upcoming data.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
EURUSD remains in a constructive bullish structure, holding above prior support zones and maintaining higher lows. Momentum has moderated after recent gains, suggesting a period of consolidation is possible before any renewed directional move.
Current Spot Price: 1.1829
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 1.1950 |
| R1 | 1.1885 |
| Current Spot Price | 1.1829 |
| S1 | 1.1760 |
| S2 | 1.1685 |
Technical verdict
The technical bias remains bullish to neutral, with the pair consolidating above key support. Sustained acceptance above 1.1885 would be required to reassert upside momentum, while a break below 1.1760 would signal deeper correction risk.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday Setup and Trade Ideas
Liquidity note: Weekend trading implies reduced participation and increased sensitivity around technical levels.
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy pullbacks | 1.1760 – 1.1785 | 1.1885 → 1.1950 | Sustained break below 1.1685 |
| Breakout continuation | Clear hold above 1.1885 | 1.1950 | Failure back below 1.1820 |
| Tactical short (countertrend) | 1.1950 area | 1.1885 → 1.1760 | Daily hold above 1.1980 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
The base case expects range-to-slightly-higher price action, with buyers defending dips above S1. Risk remains two-sided, but downside is viewed as corrective while price holds above 1.1685.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Gradual upside continuation (base case) | USD softens further on rate expectations | 1.1760 – 1.2000 |
| Consolidation | Market awaits fresh macro catalysts | 1.1685 – 1.1885 |
| Bearish correction | USD regains strength | Below 1.1685 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Short-term fundamentals are modestly supportive, driven primarily by USD repricing rather than Eurozone strength.
Technical verdict: EURUSD remains technically constructive, but momentum is slowing near resistance, favouring consolidation or measured upside rather than impulsive continuation.
Overall conclusion: EURUSD retains a cautiously bullish short-term bias, with pullback-buying strategies preferred while key supports hold. A decisive break above resistance is required to confirm the next leg higher.
EURUSD Chart
Economic News relating to EURUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
CHFJPY Analysis 24/01/2026 @ 16:00
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
CHFJPY reflects the interaction between two traditional safe-haven currencies, with risk sentiment and yield differentials remaining the dominant short-term drivers. The Japanese Yen continues to trade with structural weakness due to accommodative monetary policy and low domestic yields, while the Swiss Franc remains comparatively resilient, supported by Switzerland’s tighter policy stance and lower inflation profile.
In the immediate short term, CHFJPY strength has been underpinned by relative yield advantage in favour of CHF and a lack of sustained risk-off flows that would materially benefit JPY. However, with the cross trading at elevated levels, sensitivity to shifts in global risk appetite is increasing.
Weekend conditions imply reduced liquidity, limiting the probability of a strong fundamental impulse during the session.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short-term fundamentals remain moderately supportive for CHFJPY, though upside is increasingly dependent on continued JPY underperformance rather than incremental CHF strength.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
CHFJPY remains in a well-established bullish trend, with price holding above prior breakout levels. Momentum has slowed near recent highs, suggesting consolidation risk, but no clear reversal signals are evident at present.
Current Spot Price: 199.57
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 201.20 |
| R1 | 200.40 |
| Current Spot Price | 199.57 |
| S1 | 198.30 |
| S2 | 196.90 |
Technical verdict
The technical structure remains bullish but stretched, with higher lows intact. A sustained move above 200.40 would reinforce trend continuation, while a break below 198.30 would signal a deeper corrective phase.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday Setup and Trade Ideas
Market note: Weekend trading implies thinner liquidity and higher sensitivity around key technical levels.
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy pullbacks | 198.30 – 198.80 | 200.40 → 201.20 | Sustained break below 196.90 |
| Breakout continuation | Clean break and hold above 200.40 | 201.20 | Failure back below 199.20 |
| Tactical short (countertrend) | 201.00 – 201.20 | 200.00 → 198.30 | Daily hold above 201.80 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
The base case anticipates range-to-higher price action, with buyers likely to defend dips above S1. Risk is skewed towards consolidation rather than immediate trend reversal unless support gives way decisively.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Trend continuation (base case) | Persistent JPY weakness | 198.30 – 202.00 |
| Consolidation | Profit-taking at elevated levels | 196.90 – 200.40 |
| Corrective pullback | Risk-off flows favour JPY | Below 196.90 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Short-term fundamentals remain constructive for CHFJPY, driven by yield and policy divergence, though upside conviction is moderating.
Technical verdict: The technical trend remains bullish, but elevated positioning increases the probability of consolidation or shallow pullbacks.
Overall conclusion: CHFJPY retains a positive short-term bias, with pullback-buying favoured while above key support. Breakout continuation requires a decisive move beyond resistance to confirm further upside.
CHFJPY Chart
Economic News relating to CHFJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURJPY Analysis 24/01/2026 @ 16:20
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
EURJPY remains primarily driven by interest rate differentials and global risk sentiment. The Euro continues to draw support from comparatively firmer economic resilience within the Eurozone and a policy stance that remains meaningfully tighter than that of Japan. By contrast, the Japanese Yen remains structurally weak due to persistently accommodative monetary policy, yield curve control dynamics, and subdued domestic inflation pressures.
In the immediate short term, the cross has benefited from ongoing JPY underperformance, rather than fresh Euro strength. However, with EURJPY trading near elevated levels, sensitivity to shifts in risk appetite has increased. Any sudden risk-off move would favour JPY temporarily, though such flows have so far been shallow and short-lived.
Weekend conditions suggest limited fundamental catalysts, increasing the likelihood that price action will be technically driven.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short-term fundamentals remain mildly supportive for EURJPY, though upside momentum is increasingly dependent on continued Yen weakness rather than incremental Euro strength.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
EURJPY remains within a medium-term bullish structure, though recent price action shows signs of consolidation following an extended advance. Momentum has moderated, and price is currently holding above key near-term support.
Current Spot Price: 184.22
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 186.40 |
| R1 | 185.30 |
| Current Spot Price | 184.22 |
| S1 | 183.20 |
| S2 | 181.90 |
Technical verdict
The technical outlook remains constructive but stretched. Holding above 183.20 keeps the bullish bias intact, while a sustained break below this level would signal a deeper corrective phase toward S2.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday Setup and Trade Ideas
Liquidity note: Weekend trading conditions imply reduced volume and higher sensitivity around technical levels.
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy pullbacks | 183.20 – 183.60 | 185.30 → 186.40 | Sustained break below 181.90 |
| Breakout continuation | Clean break and hold above 185.30 | 186.40 | Failure back below 184.60 |
| Tactical short (countertrend) | 186.20 – 186.40 | 185.00 → 183.20 | Daily hold above 187.00 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
The base case favours range-to-higher price action, with buyers likely to defend dips into S1. Risk is skewed toward consolidation rather than immediate trend reversal unless S1 is decisively breached.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Trend continuation (base case) | Persistent JPY weakness | 183.20 – 187.00 |
| Consolidation | Profit-taking at highs | 181.90 – 185.30 |
| Corrective pullback | Risk-off flows support JPY | Below 181.90 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Short-term fundamentals remain supportive but increasingly mature, driven primarily by Yen weakness rather than Euro acceleration.
Technical verdict: The technical structure remains bullish with signs of consolidation, with key support at 183.20 defining near-term risk.
Overall conclusion: EURJPY retains a positive short-term bias, favouring pullback-buying while above support. Upside continuation requires a decisive break above resistance, while a loss of support would signal a broader corrective phase.
EURJPY Chart
Economic News relating to EURJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
USDJPY Analysis 24/01/2026 @ 17:00
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
USDJPY continues to be driven primarily by monetary policy divergence and yield differentials. The US Dollar remains structurally supported by comparatively higher interest rates and resilient macro data, while the Japanese Yen remains constrained by an accommodative policy framework and limited progress toward sustainable inflation.
In the immediate short term, the pair is less sensitive to fresh macro catalysts and more influenced by positioning, rate expectations, and global risk sentiment. The absence of near-term policy shifts from Japan maintains downside pressure on JPY, while USD momentum has moderated but not reversed.
With markets approaching the end of the week, conditions favour range trading rather than trend acceleration, unless external risk sentiment deteriorates materially.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short-term fundamentals remain USD-supportive, though momentum is less aggressive than earlier phases, favouring consolidation rather than sharp extension.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
USDJPY remains within a broader bullish structure, though recent price action suggests consolidation following earlier advances. Momentum indicators point to a pause rather than reversal, with price holding above key near-term support.
Current Spot Price: 155.73
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 157.20 |
| R1 | 156.40 |
| Current Spot Price | 155.73 |
| S1 | 154.80 |
| S2 | 153.60 |
Technical verdict
The technical outlook remains constructive but neutralising. Holding above 154.80 preserves bullish structure, while a sustained break below S1 would open scope for a deeper corrective move toward S2.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday Setup and Trade Ideas
Liquidity note: Weekend conditions imply thinner liquidity and increased sensitivity around key levels.
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy pullbacks | 154.80 – 155.10 | 156.40 → 157.20 | Sustained break below 153.60 |
| Breakout continuation | Daily hold above 156.40 | 157.20 | Failure back below 155.70 |
| Tactical short (countertrend) | 157.00 – 157.20 | 155.70 → 154.80 | Daily close above 158.00 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
The base case favours range-to-higher behaviour, with buyers expected to defend dips toward S1. Risk is skewed toward consolidation rather than reversal unless price decisively breaks below 154.80.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation (base case) | Yield differential dominance | 154.80 – 157.20 |
| Bullish extension | Renewed USD momentum | Above 157.20 |
| Corrective pullback | Risk-off or USD softening | Below 153.60 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Short-term fundamentals remain supportive for USDJPY, underpinned by persistent policy divergence, though momentum has moderated.
Technical verdict: The technical structure remains bullish but consolidative, with key support at 154.80 defining near-term downside risk.
Overall conclusion: USDJPY retains a positive short-term bias, favouring pullback-buying strategies while above support. A break below S1 would signal a deeper correction, while upside continuation requires a clean break above resistance.
USDJPY Chart
Economic News relating to USDJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
GBPUSD Analysis 24/01/2026 @ 17:20
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
GBPUSD short-term dynamics remain driven by relative monetary policy expectations, rate differentials, and risk sentiment. Sterling continues to find support from comparatively sticky UK inflation dynamics, which sustain expectations that UK policy will remain restrictive for longer than some peers. However, this support is tempered by slowing UK growth momentum and sensitivity to global risk conditions.
The US Dollar, while no longer accelerating, remains underpinned by resilient US macro data and comparatively higher yields. As a result, GBPUSD is currently operating in a balance-of-forces environment, with neither currency exhibiting a clear near-term dominance.
Into the immediate horizon, price action is more likely to reflect technical positioning and short-term sentiment rather than fresh fundamental repricing.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short-term fundamentals are broadly neutral, with mild Sterling support offset by persistent USD yield resilience, favouring consolidation rather than trend expansion.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
GBPUSD remains within a constructive medium-term structure, but near-term momentum has slowed following recent advances. Price is holding above key support, suggesting buyers remain engaged, though upside follow-through is limited.
Current Spot Price: 1.3643
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 1.3780 |
| R1 | 1.3715 |
| Current Spot Price | 1.3643 |
| S1 | 1.3560 |
| S2 | 1.3475 |
Technical verdict
The technical outlook is constructive but range-bound. Holding above 1.3560 preserves bullish structure, while a break below S1 would increase the probability of a deeper corrective move toward S2.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday Setup and Trade Ideas
Liquidity note: Weekend conditions imply reduced liquidity and heightened sensitivity around key levels.
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy pullbacks | 1.3560 – 1.3600 | 1.3715 → 1.3780 | Sustained break below 1.3475 |
| Range short | 1.3715 – 1.3780 | 1.3640 → 1.3560 | Daily close above 1.3810 |
| Breakout continuation | Daily hold above 1.3715 | 1.3780+ | Failure back below 1.3640 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
The base case favours range consolidation with an upward bias, provided price remains above 1.3560. Risk management should account for potential false breaks given thinner liquidity conditions.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Range consolidation (base case) | Neutral USD–GBP balance | 1.3560 – 1.3780 |
| Bullish extension | Renewed Sterling demand | Above 1.3780 |
| Corrective pullback | USD reasserts strength | Below 1.3475 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Short-term fundamentals are neutral, with UK rate support offset by ongoing USD yield resilience.
Technical verdict: GBPUSD remains technically constructive but consolidative, with key support at 1.3560 defining near-term downside risk.
Overall conclusion: GBPUSD is biased toward range trading with a mild upside tilt, favouring pullback-buying strategies while support holds. A sustained break below S1 would shift focus toward a deeper corrective phase, while upside continuation requires a clear break above resistance.
GBPUSD Chart
Economic News relating to GBPUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURGBP Analysis 24/01/2026 @ 17:35
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
EURGBP remains primarily driven by relative monetary policy expectations between the ECB and the Bank of England, alongside broader risk sentiment. In the near term, Sterling continues to benefit from comparatively firmer UK inflation dynamics and the perception that UK policy is likely to remain restrictive for longer than that of the euro area.
The Euro remains constrained by subdued growth momentum and cautious ECB communication, limiting upside potential. As a result, EURGBP has struggled to sustain rallies and remains vulnerable to renewed downside pressure when risk appetite stabilises.
No major near-term macro repricing is evident, leaving the cross sensitive to technical positioning and short-term flows.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short-term fundamentals are mildly bearish for EURGBP, reflecting relative Sterling resilience versus a still-fragile euro area backdrop.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
EURGBP continues to trade within a broadly bearish-to-neutral structure, with lower highs still evident on short-term charts. Recent price action suggests consolidation rather than trend acceleration, though downside risks remain dominant while below resistance.
Current Spot Price: 0.8670
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 0.8760 |
| R1 | 0.8720 |
| Current Spot Price | 0.8670 |
| S1 | 0.8605 |
| S2 | 0.8535 |
Technical verdict
The technical outlook is soft to bearish. Failure to reclaim 0.8720 keeps pressure on the downside, with a break below 0.8605 increasing the probability of a move toward deeper support.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday Setup and Trade Ideas
Liquidity note: Weekend conditions imply reduced liquidity and a higher risk of false breaks.
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sell rallies | 0.8720 – 0.8760 | 0.8670 → 0.8605 | Sustained break above 0.8790 |
| Range buy (counter-trend) | 0.8605 – 0.8580 | 0.8670 → 0.8720 | Daily close below 0.8535 |
| Breakdown continuation | Daily close below 0.8605 | 0.8535 | Recovery back above 0.8670 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
The base case favours range-to-downside continuation, with rallies viewed as corrective while below 0.8720. Risk should be managed conservatively due to thinner liquidity conditions.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Mild downside continuation (base case) | Sterling outperformance persists | 0.8535 – 0.8720 |
| Range consolidation | Lack of fresh macro catalysts | 0.8605 – 0.8760 |
| Bullish reversal | Unexpected Euro support | Above 0.8760 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Short-term fundamentals remain mildly negative for EURGBP, with Sterling retaining a relative advantage over the euro.
Technical verdict: The technical structure is soft, with resistance capping upside and downside risks prevailing below 0.8720.
Overall conclusion: EURGBP is biased toward selling rallies within a consolidative-downside environment, with attention focused on support at 0.8605. A confirmed break lower would open scope for a deeper corrective phase, while sustained strength above resistance would b
EURGBP Chart
Economic News relating to EURGBP
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
GBPJPY Analysis 24/01/2026 @ 17:50
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
GBPJPY continues to be driven by the yield differential between the UK and Japan and broader risk sentiment. Sterling remains underpinned by the perception of UK monetary policy staying restrictive for longer, given sticky services inflation and wage dynamics. This provides ongoing structural support to GBP on dips.
In contrast, the Japanese yen remains fundamentally weak. Although the Bank of Japan has gradually moved away from ultra-loose policy, policy normalisation remains slow and cautious, limiting sustained JPY strength. Any yen support is therefore likely to be episodic and risk-driven rather than structurally bullish.
Short-term flows are increasingly sensitive to equity market volatility and risk appetite, with GBPJPY prone to sharp intraday swings during periods of reduced liquidity.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short-term fundamentals remain supportive of GBPJPY, with yield differentials favouring Sterling and JPY strength likely to be corrective rather than trend-changing.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
GBPJPY remains in a medium-term bullish structure, though near-term price action shows signs of consolidation after recent gains. Momentum has moderated, suggesting scope for intraday pullbacks while the broader trend remains intact above key support.
Current Spot Price: 212.47
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 216.40 |
| R1 | 214.60 |
| Current Spot Price | 212.47 |
| S1 | 209.80 |
| S2 | 206.90 |
Technical verdict
The technical outlook is bullish but consolidative. Holding above 209.80 keeps the upside bias intact, while a break above 214.60 would signal renewed trend continuation.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday Setup and Trade Ideas
Liquidity note: Weekend conditions increase the risk of whipsaw price action; position sizing should be conservative.
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy pullbacks (trend) | 210.00 – 209.80 | 214.60 → 216.40 | Daily close below 206.90 |
| Sell rallies (counter-trend) | 214.60 – 216.40 | 212.50 → 209.80 | Sustained break above 216.40 |
| Breakout continuation | Daily close above 214.60 | 216.40+ | Failure back below 212.50 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
The base case favours buying dips within a broader uptrend, with risk tightly managed below structural support. Short-term corrections are viewed as corrective rather than trend-reversing while above 209.80.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation (base case) | Yield differential dominates | 209.80 – 218.00 |
| Consolidation | Reduced volatility, range trading | 206.90 – 214.60 |
| Risk-off correction | Equity weakness boosts JPY | Below 206.90 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Short-term fundamentals remain constructive for GBPJPY, supported by yield differentials and limited scope for sustained JPY strength.
Technical verdict: The technical structure is bullish with consolidation, with higher levels favoured while price holds above key support.
Overall conclusion: GBPJPY remains biased toward buying pullbacks, with intraday volatility expected under thinner liquidity conditions. A sustained break above resistance would reinforce trend continuation, while only a clear loss of support would materially weaken the short-term outlook.
GBPJPY Chart
Economic News relating to GBPJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
XAGUSD Analysis 24/01/2026 @ 18:00
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Silver remains primarily driven by a combination of macro risk sentiment, real yield expectations and industrial demand assumptions. In the immediate short term, precious metals continue to find support from expectations that global monetary policy is near peak restrictiveness, even if rate cuts are not imminent. This caps upside in real yields and limits aggressive downside pressure on silver.
At the same time, silver underperforms gold during periods of uncertainty due to its dual precious/industrial metal nature. Industrial demand expectations remain constructive but sensitive to global growth signals, making XAGUSD more volatile than gold on an intraday basis.
Near-term flows are therefore tactical rather than structural, with price reacting quickly to USD fluctuations and shifts in risk appetite.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short-term fundamentals are neutral-to-supportive, favouring range-to-upside trading while real yields remain contained and USD strength fails to accelerate meaningfully.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
XAGUSD remains in a strong medium-term bullish structure, but near-term price action shows signs of consolidation after an extended advance. Momentum has moderated, increasing the probability of intraday pullbacks and two-sided price action.
Current Spot Price: 103.22
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 108.60 |
| R1 | 105.80 |
| Current Spot Price | 103.22 |
| S1 | 100.40 |
| S2 | 96.90 |
Technical verdict
The technical outlook remains bullish but corrective, with higher prices favoured while holding above 100.40. A break above 105.80 would reopen upside momentum, while a loss of 100.40 would signal a deeper corrective phase.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday Setup and Trade Ideas
Liquidity note: Weekend trading conditions increase volatility risk; tighter risk controls are recommended.
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy pullbacks (trend) | 101.00 – 100.40 | 105.80 → 108.60 | Sustained break below 96.90 |
| Sell rallies (counter-trend) | 105.80 – 108.60 | 103.20 → 100.40 | Daily close above 108.60 |
| Breakout continuation | Daily close above 105.80 | 108.60+ | Failure back below 103.00 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
The base case favours buying dips within a broader bullish trend, with risk defined below structural support. Upside continuation is favoured unless price decisively breaks below 100.40.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation (base case) | USD softens, metals bid | 100.40 – 112.00 |
| Consolidation | Volatility compresses | 96.90 – 105.80 |
| Deeper correction | Risk-off USD strength | Below 96.90 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Short-term fundamentals are neutral-to-supportive, with limited downside pressure while real yields remain capped.
Technical verdict: The technical structure remains bullish with corrective risk, favouring higher prices above key support.
Overall conclusion: XAGUSD is biased toward buying pullbacks, with intraday volatility expected under thin liquidity. Trend continuation requires a break above resistance, while only a sustained loss of support would materially weaken the short-term outlook.
XAGUSD Chart
Economic News relating to XAGUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
