secundum Liber Abaci
Praemonitus, Praemunitus
Fibbinarchie
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
USDCHF Analysis 25/02/2026 @ 19:01
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
-
Swiss macro remains low-inflation / low-rate: SNB Chair Martin Schlegel said Swiss inflation may dip negative at times but is expected to rise gradually, with inflation still around 0.1% y/y and the policy rate at 0%, underscoring a soft domestic inflation backdrop.
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Tariff uncertainty is a live market driver: Reuters reporting continues to highlight U.S. tariff uncertainty as a macro shock channel, with Swiss firms and exporters affected and broader risk sentiment still sensitive to trade headlines.
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USD side is mixed rather than one-way bullish: Recent U.S. data has been mixed (firmer inflation signals in some releases, but softer confidence/labour concerns in others), which has kept Fed expectations and USD direction less decisive.
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Safe-haven rotation has supported CHF at times: Reuters notes recent risk-off flows have favoured traditional havens including the Swiss franc, while broader commentary also points to a softer USD safe-haven profile than in 2024.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Neutral to mildly bearish USDCHF (short term). The SNB’s low-inflation environment is not CHF-bullish on rates alone, but tariff-driven risk aversion and intermittent haven demand continue to support CHF and cap USDCHF upside.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~0.7731–0.7736 (live/near-live quotes across major market pages today).
Support / resistance focus: Recent technical commentary and market quotes show USDCHF consolidating in a narrow range, with support clustering around 0.7730 / 0.7718–0.7720 and broader downside support near 0.7608, while upside resistance is seen around 0.7758–0.7760 and then 0.7859.
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 0.7859 |
| R1 | 0.7758 |
| Current Spot Price | 0.7734 |
| S1 | 0.7718 |
| S2 | 0.7608 |
(Levels derived from current-day quote ranges and published technical pivots/support-resistance references.)
Technical verdict
Neutral / range-bound with slight downside risk below support. The pair is still respecting nearby support-resistance boundaries; failure to hold above the 0.7720 area would expose 0.7608, while a push through 0.7758 improves the odds of a test toward 0.7859.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Bias | Entry Zone | Stop Loss | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Range fade at R1 | Short | 0.7750–0.7758 | Above 0.7790 | 0.7720 |
| Support reaction long | Long (tactical) | 0.7718–0.7722 | Below 0.7690 | 0.7750 |
| Breakdown continuation | Short | Below 0.7718 (confirmed) | Above 0.7740 | 0.7660 then 0.7608 |
(Structured around today’s observed range and published technical pivot zones.)
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Aspect | Expectation |
|---|---|
| Primary direction | Range to slight CHF strength |
| Bullish USDCHF trigger | Sustained hold above R1 0.7758 |
| Bearish USDCHF trigger | Break and acceptance below S1 0.7718 |
| Risk management | Keep stops tight around pivots; expect headline volatility from trade/tariff news |
This base case reflects a mixed USD macro picture and recurring CHF haven demand under tariff-related risk swings.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Expected Path |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | No fresh macro shock; mixed US data | 0.7608–0.7859 |
| CHF-led downside | Risk-off / tariff escalation; haven flows persist | 0.7718 → 0.7608 |
| USD rebound | Firmer US data / yield support returns | 0.7758 → 0.7859 |
Scenario probabilities remain headline-sensitive given the current trade-policy backdrop.
Summary
-
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Neutral to mildly bearish USDCHF, with very low Swiss inflation and a 0% SNB rate balanced against CHF safe-haven demand and tariff uncertainty.
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Technical verdict: Range-bound, but with a slight downside risk if 0.7718 gives way; resistance remains layered at 0.7758 then 0.7859.
Conclusion: Short-term conditions favour a level-driven trading approach (support/resistance first, macro headlines second). Unless USDCHF reclaims and holds above 0.7758, the balance remains skewed toward consolidation with downside probes into support.
USDCHF Chart
Economic News relating to USDCHF
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
XAUUSD Analysis 25/02/2026 @ 19:15
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Gold (XAU/USD) has recently been supported by a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty and safe-haven buying, while also reacting to currency and policy expectations. Spot prices have remained elevated above $5,150 per ounce in recent sessions, reflecting ongoing risk flows into bullion.
Key fundamental drivers include:
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Safe-haven demand & geopolitical risk: Escalating global trade tensions and tariff concerns have driven investors toward gold, lifting prices and reinforcing bullion’s role as a store of value.
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Monetary policy expectations: Mixed U.S. data and speculation on future Federal Reserve policy (rate cuts vs. rate persistence) continue to influence dollar strength and real yields, which in turn impact gold demand.
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Institutional forecasts: Major financial institutions have raised their 2026 gold price outlooks, citing structural diversification and central-bank demand, though some economists caution that recent price moves may not be fully supported by traditional economic fundamentals.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Neutral-to-moderately bullish. Demand drivers such as safe-haven positioning and macro uncertainty support gold, but countervailing forces like a firm dollar and mixed data create short-term headwinds.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
According to recent market analysis, XAU/USD is maintaining strength near multi-week highs and holding critical support after recent breakouts above near-term resistance zones.
| Level | Price (approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~$5,200–$5,300 Potential upper resistance band |
| R1 | ~$5,130 Immediate upside hurdle |
| Current Spot Price | ~$5,190 Recent trading level |
| S1 | ~$5,100–$5,150 Immediate support range |
| S2 | ~$4,960–$5,000 Secondary structural support |
Technical context from multiple sources shows a break above resistance near $5,100–$5,130, now evolving into support, with the broader uptrend maintained after defending near $4,960. Momentum indicators point to continued consolidation near recent highs, with near-term resistance in the $5,200–$5,300 band.
Technical verdict
Neutral range with a bullish tilt. XAU/USD is consolidating within a clearly defined technical range and retaining upward structure. Strength above immediate resistance supports continuation bias, while key supports must hold to avoid deeper corrections.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Trigger | Entry Zone | Stop | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakout long | Sustained break above R1 (~$5,130) | 5,130–5,150 | Below S1 support | R2 (~$5,200–$5,300) |
| Sell into resistance | Rejection near R2 zone | 5,180–5,210 | Above R2 band | S1 (~$5,100–$5,150) |
| Support bounce | Holds S1 support zone | 5,100–5,130 | Below S2 support | R1 (~$5,130) |
These setups reflect ongoing consolidation and attempt to capture structural reactions at key pivots.
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Market Condition | Base Case (next 1–2 days) |
|---|---|
| Direction | Range-bound between S1 and R2 |
| Confirmation for Upside | Break & hold above R1 (~$5,130) |
| Invalidating Downside Signal | Drop below S1 (~$5,100) |
| Risk Controls | Place stops at invalidation levels; manage position sizing |
The base scenario anticipates continued range trading with a bullish lean, given balanced macro and technical signals.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Expected Path |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish breakout | Geopolitical escalation, weaker USD, dovish policy data | >R1 (~$5,130) → test R2 (~$5,200–$5,300) |
| Range continuation | Mixed data, consolidation around current highs | Trade within S1–R2 |
| Bearish correction | Strong USD, hawkish policy turns | <S1 (~$5,100) → test S2 (~$4,960) |
Summary
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Fundamental / Economic verdict: The near-term fundamental picture is neutral-to-moderately bullish, with safe-haven demand and policy expectations supporting prices, though strength in the U.S. dollar and mixed macro readings temper conviction.
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Technical verdict: XAU/USD is range-bound but biased higher, maintaining key technical levels and showing resilience above support pivots.
Conclusion: XAU/USD is consolidating near recent highs with a bullish tilt within a defined range. Breakouts above resistance offer continuation opportunities, while supportive levels provide areas for accumulation. Range-based strategies with disciplined risk management are appropriate in the current environment, pending clearer directional cues.
XAUUSD Chart
Economic News relating to XAUUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURUSD Analysis 25/02/2026 @ 21:57
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
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USD narrative shifting but not collapsing: Recent market commentary highlights a reduced USD safe-haven correlation versus 2024, with investors still broadly holding US assets; this can dampen “risk-off” USD spikes and allow EURUSD to hold firmer when volatility rises.
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US growth slowed, inflation stayed sticky: US Q4 GDP slowed sharply while PCE inflation rose to ~2.9% (core ~3.0%), a mix that can keep rate expectations unstable (growth concerns vs. inflation persistence).
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ECB stance framed as steady: Recent European messaging continues to emphasise policy as being in a “good place” / patience, reinforcing expectations of a steady near-term rate path unless inflation re-accelerates.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Slightly EUR-supportive, but headline-sensitive. Softer USD safe-haven behaviour and a steadier ECB tone can support EURUSD dips, while US inflation persistence can still revive USD yield support quickly after strong US data surprises.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: 1.1811
Support / Resistance levels (daily pivots):
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 1.1810 |
| R1 | 1.1791 |
| Current Spot Price | 1.1811 |
| S1 | 1.1760 |
| S2 | 1.1748 |
(From the latest published daily pivot set.)
Additional short-term context:
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Momentum/positioning: Broad indicator aggregates remain mixed-to-positive, suggesting mild bullish pressure but not a strong trend environment.
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Key inflection: With spot sitting at/just above R2, follow-through depends on whether price can hold above ~1.1810 rather than snap back into the prior range.
Technical verdict
Mildly bullish while above ~1.1810, otherwise range reversion risk. Acceptance above R2 can open a push higher; failure to hold above R2 increases the probability of a drift back toward the pivot/support band (S1/S2).
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Condition / Trigger | Direction | Entry Zone | Stop (risk) | Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Break & hold above R2 | Sustained trade > 1.1810 | Long | 1.1812–1.1820 | < 1.1790 | 1.1850 then 1.1900 (extension) |
| Failed breakout / snapback | Rejects above R2, returns < 1.1810 | Short | 1.1805–1.1800 | > 1.1825 | 1.1760 (S1) then 1.1748 (S2) |
| Support reaction buy | Holds S1 (1.1760) on retest | Long | 1.1765–1.1760 | < 1.1745 | 1.1791 (R1) then 1.1810 (R2) |
Levels derived from the current daily pivot map.
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Item | Base case (next 1–2 sessions) |
|---|---|
| Bias | Slight upward tilt while above 1.1810 |
| What confirms | Multiple closes above R2; dips bought above R1 |
| What invalidates | Sustained trade back below R1 (1.1791) |
| Risk management | Keep risk tight near R2 “decision point”; avoid chasing if price whipsaws around 1.1810 |
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | What drives it | Expected path |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | Softer USD tone / improved risk appetite, stable ECB messaging | Holds >1.1810 → probes 1.1850–1.1900 |
| Range reversion | Mixed data; Fed/ECB expectations unchanged | Rotates 1.1748–1.1810 repeatedly |
| Bearish pullback | US inflation surprise revives USD yields | Break <1.1760 → tests 1.1748 then lower |
Macro sensitivity: US inflation and growth signals can quickly re-price rate expectations and swing EURUSD.
Summary
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Fundamental / Economic verdict: Slightly EUR-supportive as USD safe-haven behaviour appears less dominant and ECB messaging remains steady; however, US inflation persistence can re-strengthen USD quickly.
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Technical verdict: Mildly bullish but fragile, with spot sitting at a key decision level (~1.1810). Holding above it favours continuation; rejection favours rotation back toward S1/S2.
Overall conclusion: Near-term conditions support tactical bullish continuation only if price accepts above R2, otherwise the higher-probability outcome is range mean reversion into the 1.1760–1.1748 support band.
EURUSD Chart
Economic News relating to EURUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
CHFJPY Analysis 25/02/2026 @ 19:44
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
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Safe‑haven positioning and macro drivers: The CHF/JPY pair often reflects broad risk sentiment dynamics, as both the Swiss franc and Japanese yen are regarded as defensive currencies. In the current environment, global risk factors such as equity market direction and geopolitical uncertainty can exert influence but do not signal a clear directional bias on their own.
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Monetary policy context: Relative monetary policy expectations between the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Japan remain important. Market participants are watching central bank communications for guidance on future rate expectations and policy shifts, which can affect CHF/JPY flows through yield differentials and interest rate expectations.
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Indirect macro influences: Movements in the US dollar and related yen crosses (e.g., USD/JPY and USD/CHF) can indirectly impact CHF/JPY, given correlation patterns in global FX markets. Changes in broader macro data (such as US employment or inflation surprises) may propagate through these pairs and influence CHF/JPY.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Neutral. The fundamental backdrop lacks a dominant catalyst. Safe‑haven status and central bank watching lead to balanced short‑term influences rather than a strong trend driver.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price (approx): 202.13 JPY (recent live price)
| Level | Price (approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~201.37 – 201.77 (upper resistance band) |
| R1 | ~200.46 – 200.84 (near prior resistance cluster) |
| Current Spot Price | ~202.13 |
| S1 | ~199.54 – 199.80 (initial support) |
| S2 | ~199.20 – 198.60 (deeper support zone) |
Technical context:
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Price dynamics: CHF/JPY has recently traded around ~202.1 JPY, near its short‑term upper range, with intraday highs and lows suggesting some resistance around prior pivot points.
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Support and resistance: Multiple technical sources identify key resistance around the 200.4 – 201.7 JPY area and support near 199.5 JPY, with deeper support evident below that level. These zones have historically offered opportunities for range trade strategies.
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Momentum indicators: Aggregate technical tools such as momentum oscillators and pivot‑based analyses show mixed signals, with indicators varying between neutral and modestly constructive depending on timeframe.
Technical verdict
Neutral with range bias. The short‑term technical picture is dominated by established support and resistance zones. A sustained break above resistance bands could shift sentiment bullishly, while failure to hold support would raise corrective risks.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Trigger | Entry Zone | Stop | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish breakout | Close above R2 or strong momentum | Long ~201.80 – 202.30 | Below 200.80 | Above 202.80* |
| Range rejection | Price stalls under resistance | Short ~201.00 – 201.80 | Above 203.00 | S1 (~199.60) |
| Support bounce | Price bounces at S1 | Long ~199.50 – 199.90 | Below 198.50 | R1 (~200.50) |
*Target above recent supply expected resistance area.
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Aspect | Base Case (next 1–2 days) |
|---|---|
| Expected pattern | Sideways consolidation near recent highs |
| Directional tilt | Neutral with upside potential on break of resistance |
| Invalidation | Close below S2 |
| Risk management | Use clear pivot stops; trim near resistance |
The base case anticipates a continuation of the near‑range trading, with tactical opportunities at key support and resistance levels.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Expected Path |
|---|---|---|
| Range breakout | Strong buying interest; break above R2 | Move to new short‑term highs |
| Continued consolidation | Mixed macro data and muted volatility | Oscillate between S1 and R1 |
| Corrective path | Yen strength or risk pick‑up | Decline toward S2 |
Summary
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Fundamental / Economic verdict: CHF/JPY’s fundamental outlook is neutral, reflecting balanced safe‑haven dynamics, central bank expectations and indirect macro linkages without a strong directional bias.
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Technical verdict: The technical environment is neutral with a range emphasis, guided by clear support and resistance levels. Breakouts above resistance or breakdowns below support will be required to change the prevailing range context.
Overall conclusion: Under current market conditions, short‑term analysis of CHF/JPY favours level‑based strategies within established technical ranges, with disciplined risk management and confirmation around key zones before expecting trend continuation or reversal.
CHFJPY Chart
Economic News relating to CHFJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURJPY Analysis 25/02/2026 @ 21:28
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
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BoJ policy expectations remain a primary driver: Recent reporting and commentary continue to keep markets alert to further BoJ tightening, with debate on timing (March vs later in Q2) and sensitivity to JPY weakness/inflation pressures. This backdrop can support the yen on risk-off days, while uncertainty over the pace of normalisation can weaken the yen when risk sentiment improves.
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EUR-side impulse is softer and data-dependent: EURJPY moves are currently more reactive to JPY-side rates/risk dynamics than sustained EUR strength; near-term price action has been described as benefiting from JPY softness rather than strong EUR demand.
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Risk sentiment remains influential: As a pro-cyclical cross, EURJPY tends to rise with calmer/global “risk-on” conditions and fall when volatility lifts and safe-haven flows favour JPY.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Neutral-to-slightly EURJPY-bullish in the very short term, but with event risk skewed to JPY-strength spikes if BoJ tightening expectations firm or risk sentiment deteriorates.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: 184.56
Support / Resistance (short term focus):
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 186.88 |
| R1 | 186.22 |
| Current Spot Price | 184.56 |
| S1 | 183.21 |
| S2 | 181.96 |
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Resistance: A retest zone is building into the 186.22–186.88 region (prior resistance/ATH area). A clean break and hold above this zone would reinforce trend continuation.
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Support: Immediate structure support sits near the 183.21 area (recent day-range low), while 181.96 is a more meaningful downside “line in the sand” referenced in current technical outlooks; below there, attention shifts toward deeper retracement levels (incl. ~181.27).
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Market sentiment: Short-term bias is described as mildly constructive while above the lower supports, with intraday pullbacks still treated as corrective unless key supports fail.
Technical verdict
Short-term bullish bias while holding above S1 (183.21), with a trend-confirmation trigger on breaks above 186.22/186.88. A sustained move below 181.96 would materially weaken the near-term structure.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Condition / Trigger | Direction | Entry Guide | Invalidation | Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pullback buy (support-led) | Holds above S1 (183.21) after a dip | Long | 183.30–183.80 | Daily acceptance < 183.00 | 184.60 → 186.22 |
| Breakout continuation | 4H close above 185.00 with follow-through | Long | 185.00–185.20 | Back below 184.40 | 186.22 → 186.88 |
| Fade into resistance | Clear rejection signals near R1 (186.22) | Short | 186.00–186.30 | Sustained > 186.60 | 184.60 → 183.21 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Aspect | Base Case (next 1–2 sessions) |
|---|---|
| Market state | Upside-leaning consolidation |
| Preferred approach | Buy dips above S1, only chase highs on confirmation |
| Key upside trigger | Acceptance above 185.00 then R1 (186.22) |
| Key downside trigger | Loss of S1 then pressure toward S2 (181.96) |
| Risk notes | BoJ-headline sensitivity can cause sharp JPY moves; size accordingly |
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Probable Path |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | Risk-on tone persists; BoJ normalisation doubts cap JPY | Grind higher → tests 186.22/186.88 |
| Range / consolidation | Mixed data; no decisive central-bank repricing | Oscillate 183.21–186.22 |
| Corrective pullback | Risk-off or stronger BoJ hike pricing | Break below 183.21 → 181.96 (and potentially ~181.27) |
Summary
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Fundamental / Economic verdict: Neutral-to-slightly supportive for EURJPY upside, but highly sensitive to BoJ timing expectations and risk sentiment, which can quickly swing flows back toward JPY.
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Technical verdict: Short-term bullish bias while above 183.21, with upside validation through 186.22/186.88; a sustained breakdown below 181.96 would shift the balance toward a deeper corrective phase.
EURJPY Chart
Economic News relating to EURJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
USDJPY Analysis 25/02/2026 @ 20:15
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
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Monetary policy dynamics: Short‑term USD/JPY direction remains driven by the interest‑rate differential between the United States and Japan. The Federal Reserve continues to emphasise data dependence, with markets weighing the persistence of restrictive policy against signs of moderating growth. This keeps U.S. yields relatively supported in the near term.
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Bank of Japan stance: The Bank of Japan maintains a cautious and gradual approach to policy normalisation. While domestic inflation has improved versus historical norms, it has not yet produced a sustained shift toward aggressive tightening, limiting near‑term yen strength.
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Macro data sensitivity: Near‑term price action is highly reactive to U.S. inflation, labour‑market data and Treasury yield movements. On the Japanese side, wage growth and CPI releases remain the key variables influencing expectations for future BoJ adjustments.
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Risk sentiment: Broader risk appetite has reduced safe‑haven demand for the yen, leaving USD/JPY more responsive to yield spreads than to risk‑off flows in the short term.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Neutral with a mild USD bias. Fundamentals currently favour the dollar marginally due to yield support, but the absence of a decisive policy shift from either central bank keeps directional conviction limited.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: approximately 155.1 JPY per USD
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 156.50 |
| R1 | 155.80 |
| Current Spot Price | 155.10 |
| S1 | 154.20 |
| S2 | 153.00 |
Technical observations:
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Price action continues to consolidate in the mid‑155 region, reflecting a lack of follow‑through momentum.
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Repeated failures above the 155.80–156.00 area highlight firm overhead resistance.
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The 154.20 area has acted as near‑term demand, while a break below this level would expose deeper support near 153.00.
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Momentum indicators remain broadly neutral, consistent with range‑bound conditions.
Technical verdict
Range‑bound with defined levels. Technical structure favours sideways trade between support at 154.20 and resistance at 155.80–156.50 unless a clear catalyst emerges.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Trigger | Entry Zone | Stop | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Range sell | Rejection near R1 | 155.6–155.8 | >156.2 | 154.4 |
| Range buy | Hold above S1 | 154.2–154.5 | <153.9 | 155.6 |
| Upside breakout | Sustained break >R2 | >156.5 | <155.8 | 157.5+ |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Aspect | View |
|---|---|
| Direction | Sideways consolidation |
| Bias | Mild USD‑positive within range |
| Invalidation | Daily close below 153.0 or above 156.5 |
| Risk control | Tight stops near range extremes |
The base case anticipates continued range trading, with disciplined risk management required due to false break risks.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Expected Path |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Mixed macro signals | 154.0–156.0 |
| Bullish extension | Strong U.S. data / higher yields | Break >156.5 toward 158.0 |
| Bearish correction | Yen support / softer U.S. data | Break <154.0 toward 153.0 |
Summary
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Fundamental / Economic verdict: The backdrop is neutral with a slight bias in favour of the USD, driven mainly by yield differentials rather than decisive policy shifts.
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Technical verdict: The market remains range‑bound, with clearly defined support and resistance levels guiding short‑term behaviour.
Overall conclusion: USD/JPY is likely to remain confined to a well‑defined range in the near term. Tactical strategies should prioritise support and resistance trades while remaining alert to macro data that could trigger a directional breakout.
USDJPY Chart
Economic News relating to USDJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
GBPUSD Analysis 25/02/2026 @ 22:14 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
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BoE policy path (near-term easing risk): The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in early February, with a close split (5–4) signalling growing internal support for a cut.
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UK data mix leans dovish: UK labour data has softened, with unemployment rising and wage growth cooling—conditions that typically strengthen the case for rate cuts and can cap GBP rallies.
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Inflation backdrop: UK inflation has fallen back sharply (headline around 3% reported for January), reinforcing market conviction that the BoE can begin easing in spring if disinflation persists.
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Near-term event risk / messaging: Market commentary highlights that a March cut remains an “open question”, keeping GBP reactive to UK services inflation, BoE speakers and incoming US data (yields / risk sentiment) in the next few sessions.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Neutral to mildly bearish (short term). A dovish-leaning BoE, softer labour conditions and cooling inflation skew risks toward GBP underperformance versus USD unless US data meaningfully softens or UK inflation re-accelerates.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~1.3556 (live reference).
Support / Resistance focus (daily levels):
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R2 | 1.3581 |
| R1 | 1.3556 |
| Current Spot Price | ~1.3556 |
| S1 | 1.3488 |
| S2 | 1.3463 |
Market structure & sentiment:
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Immediate bias: Price is pressing into R1/R2 supply; repeated failures above 1.3580 would reinforce a near-term “sell rallies” tone, while acceptance above R2 would improve short-term momentum.
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Indicator mix: Short-term signals are mixed (some momentum gauges supportive, broader averages less so), consistent with range-to-slightly-bullish correction within a larger, choppy environment.
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Reference pivots: Daily pivots show nearby inflection levels clustered around the mid-1.35s, reinforcing the importance of clean breaks rather than marginal probes.
Technical verdict
Neutral to slightly bullish while above S1, but capped by nearby resistance. A sustained break above R2 (1.3581) would improve the short-term trend tone; failure here keeps risk of rotation back toward S1/S2.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Trigger | Bias | Entry Area | Stop (risk reference) | Target(s) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fade resistance | Rejection / failure near R1–R2 | Short | 1.3555–1.3580 | Above 1.3605 | 1.3488 then 1.3463 |
| Breakout long | Acceptance and hold above R2 | Long | >1.3582 (on retest) | Back below 1.3555 | 1.3615–1.3660 (trail) |
| Buy support (tactical) | Clear hold above S1 | Long | 1.3490–1.3505 | Below 1.3460 | 1.3556 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Item | View |
|---|---|
| Base case (1–2 days) | Range trading with upward correction attempts capped into R1/R2 |
| Bull trigger | Sustained trade above 1.3581 (R2) |
| Bear trigger | Loss of 1.3488 (S1) exposing 1.3463 (S2) |
| Risk controls | Prefer defined stops beyond R2 for shorts / beyond S2 for longs; reduce size around high-impact US/UK speakers and data |
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Likely Path |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish extension | US yields soften / USD eases; BoE rhetoric less dovish | Hold above R2 → rotate toward 1.3615–1.3660 |
| Range persists (base) | Data mixed; no decisive policy repricing | Oscillation S1–R2 (1.3488–1.3581) |
| Bearish reversal | UK easing priced more aggressively; risk-off USD bid returns | Break below S1/S2 → retest mid-1.34s |
Summary
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Fundamental / Economic verdict: Neutral to mildly bearish, with UK labour softening and disinflation supporting expectations of BoE easing in spring.
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Technical verdict: Neutral to slightly bullish while above S1, but with upside constrained by R1/R2 overhead supply.
Overall conclusion: GBPUSD is trading at a key near-term decision zone: fundamentals still argue for caution on sustained GBP strength, while technically the pair can extend higher only if it decisively clears 1.3581; otherwise, the balance of risk favours rotation back toward 1.3488 / 1.3463.
GBPUSD Chart
Economic News relating to GBPUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURGBP Analysis 25/02/2026 @ 20:45 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
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Current spot dynamics: The EURGBP cross is trading near 0.8710–0.8712 GBP per EUR, with recent price action showing modest downward pressure.
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UK macro drivers: Recent UK economic data and market sentiment have pointed to a potentially slower pace of monetary easing by the Bank of England as sterling finds intermittent support. Stronger UK indicators at times have reinforced the pound, keeping EURGBP from sustainable upside.
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Eurozone backdrop: Eurozone macro indicators are relatively steady, without clear strong expansion or contraction signals, leaving the euro largely range‑bound against the pound absent major releases or ECB guidance.
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Monetary policy dynamics: Divergent expectations around BoE versus European Central Bank policy — with market pricing swinging between cautious BoE action and steady eurozone policy — remain a key fundamental theme for EURGBP.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Neutral fundamentals. Neither euro nor sterling drivers are decisively dominating; data flows and policy expectations continue to impart balanced pressure on the pair.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~0.8710–0.8712 GBP per EUR
Recent price action is neutral and range‑bound with well‑defined technical levels shaping market behaviour.
| Level | Price / Zone |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~0.8750–0.8780 – broader resistance zone seen in multiple technical sources |
| R1 | ~0.8752 – near‑term resistance according to intraday trade ideas |
| Current Spot Price | ~0.8710–0.8712 |
| S1 | ~0.8690 – immediate support zone referenced by chart commentary |
| S2 | ~0.8660–0.8685 – deeper support if S1 breaks lower |
Technical sentiment:
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Intraday bias remains neutral, with price consolidating between defined support and resistance levels. A decisive break above 0.8744–0.8750 is needed to signal renewed upside interest, whereas a break below 0.8685 would shift bias toward deeper support levels.
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Technical indicators from broader sources show mixed signals, with oscillators and pivot‑based analyses indicating range‑bound conditions.
Technical verdict
Neutral and range‑bound market structure. Resistance near 0.8750–0.8780 and support around 0.8690–0.8660 frame the immediate technical outlook.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Trigger | Entry Zone | Stop | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance sell | Rejection near R1/R2 | 0.8745–0.8780 | >0.8800 | 0.8700 |
| Support buy | Bounce at S1 | 0.8690–0.8710 | <0.8675 | 0.8750 |
| Breakout buy | Break above R2 | >0.8780 | <0.8750 | 0.8850+ |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Aspect | View |
|---|---|
| Short‑term bias | Neutral / range‑bound |
| Key levels | Resistance 0.8750–0.8780, Support 0.8690–0.8660 |
| Invalidation triggers | Breaks above 0.8800 or below 0.8640 |
| Risk management | Smaller positions with tight stops near invalidation zones |
The base case assumes consolidation within established technical bounds on limited fresh macro catalysts.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Expected Path |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Mixed data & policy cues | 0.8690–0.8780 |
| Bullish breakout | Strong euro data or softer GBP | Above 0.8800 |
| Bearish breakdown | Sterling strength, risk‑off tilt | Below 0.8640 |
Summary
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Fundamental / Economic verdict: Fundamentals remain neutral, with balanced macro flows and mixed monetary policy expectations between the eurozone and UK.
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Technical verdict: Price action is neutral and range‑bound, with immediate resistance defined near 0.8750–0.8780 and support around 0.8690–0.8660.
Overall conclusion: EURGBP is range‑bound in the short term. Near‑term strategies should focus on support and resistance levels, with breakout confirmations shaping directional conviction.
EURGBP Chart
Economic News relating to EURGBP
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
GBPJPY Analysis 25/02/2026 @ 21:00 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
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UK macro and Sterling context: Recent UK macro indicators point to a mixed outlook for the British pound. Weaker UK economic data coupled with increasing market speculation of potential Bank of England rate cuts has reduced near‑term bullish catalysts for GBP.
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Japanese yen fundamentals: The Japanese yen has shown intermittent strength amid risk‑off moves and shifting expectations around Bank of Japan policy normalisation; these factors support the yen against risk‑sensitive currencies like GBP.
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Risk sentiment pressures: Broader market sentiment continues to be a key driver for GBP/JPY, with risk aversion typically strengthening the yen and pressuring the GBP/JPY cross.
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Recent trading behaviour: Economies.com commentary highlights the pair struggling to confirm directional trends, instead fluctuating within an established range, suggesting limited strong fundamental drivers in either direction.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Neutral to slightly bearish (short term). Current fundamental forces — constrained UK growth data, dovish BoE expectations and periodic yen strength — do not favour a sharp sustained rally in GBP/JPY at present.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~211.93 JPY (GBP/JPY live rate)
Support / Resistance Levels (short term)
| Level | Price / Zone |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~212.36–212.16 (near broader daily resistance averages) |
| R1 | ~211.28–211.69 (near‑term pivot resistance) |
| Current Spot Price | ~211.93 |
| S1 | ~208.89–211.58 (daily and intraday pivot support cluster) |
| S2 | ~207.48–207.20 (secondary support area) |
Technical context:
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Range dynamics: GBP/JPY has recently traded within a defined range, oscillating between key pivot support and resistance zones rather than showing a distinct breakout direction.
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Momentum indicators: Technical indicator summaries show bullish signals on daily moving averages and momentum tools, suggesting short‑term technical strength, though price remains close to resistance thresholds.
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Pivot and correction context: ActionForex analysis notes that a break above minor resistance levels could resume broader upside momentum, while a break below correction lows (near ~207.20) would revive deeper corrective pressure.
Technical verdict
Neutral, leaning bullish if resistance is cleared. Prices are range‑bound but technical indicators support continued upside as long as key support levels hold. Failure to surpass and hold above resistance zones could, however, lock price into a range or invite corrective moves.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Trigger / Condition | Bias | Reference Levels | Risk Control / Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sell near resistance | Price rejects around R1 (~211.28–211.69) | Bearish‑range short | R1 | Stop above R2; target S1 |
| Buy support holds | Price bounces from S1 (~208.89–211.58) | Tactical bullish | S1 | Stop below S2; target R1 |
| Breakdown continuation | Sustained close below S1 | Bearish | S1 | Avoid chasing; target S2 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Item | Outlook (next 24–48h) |
|---|---|
| Market state | Consolidation within pivot range |
| Base case | Price rotates between S1 and R1 |
| Preferred bias | Range‑based: sell near R1, buy dips near S1 |
| Key invalidation | Close above R2 broadens bullish scope |
| Primary risk | Break below S1 signals deeper correction |
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | What drives it | Technical implication | Expected behaviour |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral consolidation | Mixed macro news; balanced sentiment | Range holds S1 ↔ R1 | Sideways action |
| Bullish breakout | Strong GBP data / risk‑on flows | Break above R2 | Renewed upside trend |
| Bearish extension | Risk aversion / yen strength | Break below S1 | Correction toward S2 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Neutral to slightly bearish: Fundamental forces — subdued UK indicators and occasional yen strength — suggest limited strong directional impetus for GBP/JPY on fundamental grounds.
Technical verdict
Neutral, lean bullish above support: Technical setups show range‑bound movement with indicators tilting towards upside if resistance levels are surpassed, though price remains bounded by key pivot zones.
Conclusion: Short‑term strategy favours range‑based trading, selling near established resistance and buying near support pivot levels, with clear invalidation conditions to monitor for breakout continuation or corrective risk.
GBPJPY Chart
Economic News relating to GBPJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
XAGUSD Analysis 25/02/2026 @ 21:16 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
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Safe‑haven and macro flows: Silver has recently benefited from elevated safe‑haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty, with investors drawn to precious metals as risk assets fluctuate.
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Monetary policy & US dollar influence: Expectations around the US Federal Reserve’s policy — particularly diminishing prospects for imminent rate cuts — continue to be a headwind for silver’s upside potential, as the US dollar strength can cap gains.
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Industrial and investment demand: Silver’s dual role as both an industrial and investment commodity supports fundamental demand, with structural deficits and tight supply forecasts contributing to medium‑term positive underpinnings.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Neutral‑to‑modestly constructive: The balance between safe‑haven support and macroeconomic sensitivities leaves short‑term fundamentals relatively balanced, though underlying supply/demand dynamics continue to offer longer‑term support.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: Silver is trading near ~88.63–90.97 USD/oz, with intraday fluctuations on strong bid activity.
Technical context: Price action has held above key moving averages and support zones, showing improved technical posture, while resistance continues to cap stronger rallies.
| Level | Price (approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~92.80–95.00 (broader resistance horizon) |
| R1 | ~89.00–90.30 (near‑term resistance cluster) |
| Current Spot Price | ~88.63–90.97 |
| S1 | ~85.20–88.00 (initial support zone) |
| S2 | ~83.30 (secondary support band) |
Support / resistance emphasis
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Resistance: Price faces near‑term resistance in the ~89.00–90.30 area, which — if broken — could open a move toward ~92.80–95.00.
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Support: ~85.20–88.00 serves as the first support band, with further bids around ~83.30 on deeper pullbacks.
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Sentiment: Technical indicators and market positioning reflect cautious optimism, with consolidation above key levels suggesting a potential build‑up to a more sustained move.
Technical verdict
Neutral‑to‑cautiously bullish: Maintaining above key support levels and showing resilience around the psychological $88.00 mark indicates constructive short‑term structure, though resistance must be convincingly cleared to signal broader upside continuity.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Setup | Trigger | Entry Zone | Invalidation | Target(s) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sell into resistance | Rejection near R1 (~89.00–90.30) | 88.90–90.50 | Break > ~91.00 | 87.00 → S1 |
| Buy support reaction | Bounce around S1 (~85.20–88.00) | 85.50–87.80 | Break < ~85.00 | 89.00 → R2 |
| Breakout long | Hold above ~91.00 | > ~91.00 | Back below ~89.00 | 92.80 → 95.00 |
| Breakdown short | Loss of deeper support | < ~83.30 | Back above ~84.00 | 81.00 → S2 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
| Element | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Expected behaviour | Range to moderately bullish action between S1 and R2 |
| Bias | Neutral with bullish tilt if resistance is cleared |
| Key invalidation | Sustained breaks below S1 weaken near‑term upside |
| Risk management | Trade with defined level exits and adapt to volatility |
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Expected Path |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | Dollar softens / safe‑haven bids strengthen | Break above ~91.00, advance to ~95.00+ |
| Range persistence | Conflicting data / choppy flows | Oscillation ~85.20–90.30 |
| Bearish retracement | Strong US data / dollar strength resumes | Drop below ~85.20, test ~83.30 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: The short‑term fundamental backdrop remains balanced — supported by safe‑haven demand and structural commodity factors, but tempered by macro sensitivities, especially to the US dollar and policy cues.
Technical verdict: Silver’s price structure presents neutral‑to‑cautious bullish traits, with the instrument supported above key technical zones and consolidating at higher levels. Resistance around ~89.00–90.30 remains the immediate test for directional clarity.
Taken together, the outlook favours disciplined range engagement with an eye toward a potential breakout, adapting risk and positions in alignment with verified moves beyond these established support and resistance boundaries.
XAGUSD Chart
Economic News relating to XAGUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
