secundum Liber Abaci
Praemonitus, Praemunitus
Fibbinarchie
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
USDCHF Analysis 26/01/2026 @ 19:00 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Recent fundamental developments for USDCHF point to continuing Swiss franc strength versus the US dollar, driven predominantly by risk‑off sentiment, safe‑haven demand and relative monetary policy expectations. Analysts note that the pair has recently broken below the 0.7800 level, an important psychological and technical threshold, prompting commentary around increasing Swiss franc resilience even as the US economic backdrop shows mixed signals on inflation and rate expectations.
Ongoing macro drivers include lingering concerns around the Federal Reserve’s policy direction (with markets still pricing potential rate cuts later in the year) and confidence in the Swiss National Bank’s commitment to managing currency strength. Together, these contribute to downward pressure on USDCHF.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals are bearish for USDCHF, with safe‑haven flows and Swiss franc strength outweighing US dollar support amid subdued macro momentum for USD appreciation.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~0.775–0.780 CHF per USD (based on recent quotes).
Technical analysis from multiple chart sources suggests the USDCHF pair remains under consistent downside pressure, trading near multi‑year lows and losing key support levels. Major sentiment indicators on platforms such as Investing.com show a strong sell bias across moving averages and oscillators, with most indicators aligned to downside momentum.
Support and resistance levels drawn from recent pivot and price action analysis include:
| Level | Price (Approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | 0.8007 (upper resistance) |
| R1 | 0.7882–0.7884 (near‑term resistance) |
| Current Spot Price | ~0.775–0.780 |
| S1 | 0.7710 (initial support) |
| S2 | 0.7631 (secondary support) |
Broad technical sentiment remains negative, with the downtrend intact and recent breaks of key supports reinforcing the bearish bias. Any recovery attempts face resistance at key levels above 0.788 and psychological barriers near 0.800.
Technical verdict
The short‑term technical outlook is bearish, with price action below major pivots and strong technical sell signals prevailing across key indicators.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday ‑ Setup and Trade Ideas
Strategies focused on trading continuation of the current downtrend and responses at support/resistance pivots.
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sell the rally | 0.7880–0.7920 | 0.7710 → 0.7630 | Break above 0.8007 |
| Breakout sell | Below 0.7750 | 0.7630 → 0.7550 | Failure back above 0.7800 |
| Buy on deep support | 0.7630 – 0.7580 | 0.7710 → 0.7800 | Close below 0.7550 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
The base case anticipates continued bearish pressure within the current downtrend, where sellers retain control and any rebounds remain capped by resistance zones near 0.788–0.800. Risk‑management should emphasise protecting short positions against rapid pullbacks, particularly around key resistance levels, while recognising volatility inherent in safe‑haven currency pairs during macroeconomic shifts.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Bearish continuation | Strong franc sentiment and weak USD data push lower | 0.7550 – 0.7710 |
| Consolidation range | Price oscillates in current zone before next catalyst | 0.7710 – 0.7880 |
| Reversal rally | USD strength or risk appetite improves sharply | 0.7880 – 0.8007+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: USDCHF fundamentals are bearish, influenced by strong Swiss franc safe‑haven demand and lacklustre US dollar support in the current macro environment.
Technical verdict: Technical indicators confirm bearish momentum, with major sell signals and price below key pivot levels reinforcing downtrend continuation.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for USDCHF is bearish, with dominant downside pressure and limited scope for sustained rallies unless significant US economic data or risk sentiment shifts occur. Tactical trades should prioritise selling near resistance and managing risk around major pivot reversals.
USDCHF Chart
Economic News relating to USDCHF
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
XAUUSD Analysis 26/01/2026 @ 19:15 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Recent macroeconomic developments continue to underpin XAUUSD (spot gold) at historically elevated levels. Gold has surged to record highs above $5,100 per ounce amid intensifying geopolitical tensions, widening safe‑haven demand, and weakening US dollar dynamics, with investors increasingly allocating into the metal as a hedge against market uncertainty.
Key drivers include ongoing central bank purchases, robust ETF inflows, and speculative positioning, alongside expectations of Federal Reserve monetary easing that reduce the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets like gold. These forces have contributed to sustained bullish pressure, though commentators note that potential pullbacks could occur should geopolitical risk ease or US economic data strengthen unexpectedly.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for XAUUSD are strongly bullish, supported by geopolitical risk premiums, broad safe‑haven demand and dovish interest rate expectations. Elevated price levels reflect a combination of structural demand and speculative momentum.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~$5,080 – $5,110 per ounce (latest available quotes).
Technical indicators and price action reflect continued upward momentum, with major analytical platforms signalling strong buy bias across multiple timeframe indicators. Moving average analysis suggests sustained bullish conditions, though short‑term oscillators show some overbought tendencies that could invite intermittent retracements.
Recent structured technical data highlight key support and resistance zones relevant for immediate trading frameworks:
| Level | Price (Approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~$5,153 – $5,208 |
| R1 | ~$5,107 – $5,153 |
| Current Spot Price | ~$5,080 – $5,110 |
| S1 | ~$5,052 – $5,000 |
| S2 | ~$4,996 – $4,937 |
These levels combine pivot‑derived resistance ranges with recent highs and psychological round numbers that serve as reaction points for price behaviour.
Technical verdict
The short‑term technical outlook for XAUUSD is bullish, with broad momentum intact and price action above key intermediate support levels. However, overbought conditions and stretched valuations increase the possibility of short‑term pullbacks and consolidation before further advances.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday ‑ Setup and Trade Ideas
Tactical approaches around immediate support and resistance pivots, with explicit invalidation levels.
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy the dip | $5,000 – $5,052 | $5,107 → $5,208 | Close below $4,937 |
| Breakout buy | Above $5,153 | $5,208 → $5,270+ | Failure below $5,107 |
| Sell/short near resist. | $5,107 – $5,153 | $5,052 → $5,000 | Sustained above $5,208 |
These setups prioritise entries near support in an uptrend while accounting for potential continuation above recent resistance clusters.
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
The base case anticipates a continuation of the bullish trend, albeit with intermittent consolidation and pullbacks as prices stretch above historical highs. Risk management should emphasise protective stops on breakouts and disciplined trimming of positions near resistance, recognising that extreme valuations can invite profit‑taking despite overarching positive momentum.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | Safe‑haven flows and sustained demand push higher | $5,153 → $5,270+ |
| Range consolidation | Prices rotate between key support and resistance | $5,000 – $5,153 |
| Pullback correction | Short‑term profit‑taking or data surprise weakens rallies | Below $5,000 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: XAUUSD is strongly supported on fundamentals, with geopolitical risk, central bank purchases and dovish rate expectations driving sustained demand.
Technical verdict: The technical landscape remains bullish, with strong momentum and key supports holding on recent price action, though short‑term overbought conditions elevate the risk of retracements.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for XAUUSD is bullish, with robust drivers and upward technical structures. Tactical strategies should balance continuation plays with disciplined risk management, particularly around critical support and resistance levels where price reactions are most likely.
XAUUSD Chart
Economic News relating to XAUUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURUSD Analysis 26/01/2026 @ 19:30 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The EURUSD exchange rate reflects the relative strength of the euro versus the US dollar, influenced by recent macroeconomic data and central bank expectations. Markets have recently priced in broad US dollar weakness amid expectations of future Federal Reserve easing, while eurozone data and ECB policy guidance have been relatively neutral, keeping the euro supported in contrast.
Market commentary highlights ongoing risk appetite and dollar selling pressure, which have supported upward EURUSD momentum. However, lingering uncertainties around US economic data and policy direction continue to inject caution.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals lean mildly bullish for EURUSD, supported by US dollar softness and eurozone stability, but tempered by ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and data sensitivity.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~1.1870–1.1890 USD per EUR, with recent prints above key resistance near 1.1865–1.1880.
Technical indicators show bullish price action with the pair trading above key moving averages and recent breach of resistance levels. RSI and momentum indicators have signalled sustained buying pressure, albeit with short‑term overbought conditions noted in some analytical sources.
Based on pivot analysis and recent price behaviour, the following approximate support and resistance levels are relevant:
| Level | Price (Approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~1.1928 – 1.1950 |
| R1 | ~1.1880 – 1.1900 |
| Current Spot Price | ~1.1870 – 1.1890 |
| S1 | ~1.1800 – 1.1830 |
| S2 | ~1.1730 – 1.1760 |
Resistance clusters near the 1.1900–1.1950 zone correspond with recent yearly highs, while support near the 1.1800 level marks a key threshold for sustaining the current uptrend.
Technical verdict
The short‑term technical outlook is bullish, with the pair elevated above key resistances and maintained by positive momentum. Overbought signals and near‑term resistance zones suggest caution for extended gains without consolidation.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
Tactical entries focused on support tests and breakout validations.
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | 1.1800–1.1830 | 1.1880 → 1.1920 | Close below 1.1760 |
| Breakout buy | Above 1.1900 | 1.1950 → 1.2000 | Failure below 1.1880 |
| Sell/short near resistance | 1.1900–1.1950 | 1.1830 → 1.1800 | Sustained above 1.2000 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
The base case envisions further upside continuation as long as EURUSD holds above immediate support, with pullbacks likely to find bids near the first support zone. Traders should manage risk closely around the 1.1800 support and the upper resistance cluster, as overextension increases the chance of short‑term reversals.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | Momentum persists and resistance breaks cleanly | 1.1900 → 1.2000+ |
| Range consolidation | Price oscillates between support and resistance levels | 1.1800 – 1.1900 |
| Pullback correction | Technical exhaustion and data surprises weaken gains | Below 1.1800 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: The short‑term fundamental backdrop is mildly bullish for EURUSD, driven by weaker US dollar sentiment and relatively stable eurozone conditions.
Technical verdict: Technical indicators and price action show a bullish outlook in the near term, with recent resistance breaches and support holds underpinning momentum.
Overall conclusion: EURUSD’s short‑term outlook is bullish but cautious, with scope for continued gains provided support holds. Traders should balance bullish positions with risk management around key support and resistance levels to accommodate potential consolidations or corrections.
EURUSD Chart
Economic News relating to EURUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
CHFJPY Analysis 26/01/2026 @ 19:46 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The CHFJPY cross reflects the relative performance of the Swiss franc (CHF) against the Japanese yen (JPY), driven largely by broad risk sentiment and macroeconomic divergences between Switzerland and Japan. Recent price action near multi‑year highs underscores the impact of safe‑haven flows into CHF and persistent yen weakness, as markets price ongoing monetary policy divergence — with the Swiss National Bank historically more inclined to maintain tighter policy relative to the Bank of Japan’s ultra‑accommodative stance.
Yen weakness has been evident amid positive equity sentiment in Japan and structural headwinds for the Japanese economy, while the franc has been buttressed by persistent safe‑haven demand and stronger relative fundamentals. These drivers have contributed to sustained CHFJPY strength in recent sessions.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for CHFJPY are bullish for CHF relative to JPY, underpinned by safe‑haven demand for the franc and continued yen weakness amid structural and policy factors.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~198.0–199.5 JPY per CHF based on latest market quotes.
Technical indicators show mixed signals with bias toward continuation of the recent uptrend. On some technical platforms, price action remains near the upper end of the recent trading range, with momentum and moving average signals suggesting neutral to bullish sentiment on the short and intermediate timeframes.
Support and resistance levels derived from daily pivot and recent price levels are outlined below:
| Level | Price (Approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~199.34–200.15 |
| R1 | ~198.86–199.00 |
| Current Spot Price | ~198.0–199.5 |
| S1 | ~197.48–197.93 |
| S2 | ~197.00–197.27 |
These levels combine standard pivot calculations and intraday trading ranges that are respected in current price action.
Technical verdict
The short‑term technical outlook is mildly bullish to neutral, with price action near recent highs, support holding on dips, and mixed indicator signals. CHFJPY remains within a range that could extend higher if the upper resistance breaks cleanly.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
Tactical strategies focus on reactions at key support and resistance levels within the current range.
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | 197.48 – 197.93 | 198.86 → 200.15 | Close below 197.00 |
| Breakout buy | Above 200.15 | 200.15 → 201.50+ | Failure below 199.34 |
| Sell/short near resistance | 198.86 – 200.15 | 197.93 → 197.00 | Sustained above 201.50 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
The base case anticipates that CHFJPY will remain range‑bound with bullish bias, with pullbacks to support zones likely finding buying interest. Risk management should emphasise protecting positions against rapid yen strength or global risk shifts, with stops placed just beyond key support levels and profit targets set near resistance clusters.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | Upper resistance break drives further CHF strength | 200.15 → 201.50+ |
| Range consolidation | Price oscillates between support and resistance | 197.00 – 200.15 |
| Pullback correction | Yen strength or shift in risk sentiment weakens CHF | Below 197.00 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Short‑term fundamentals remain bullish for CHFJPY, driven by safe‑haven flows into the franc and ongoing yen weakness.
Technical verdict: Technical conditions are mildly bullish to neutral, with key support holding and resistance levels defining a range that could see further upside if broken.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for CHFJPY is bullish but range‑oriented, with strategic opportunities around support tests and potential breakout continuation. Risk management should account for possible shifts in global risk sentiment that could impact the yen and cross price dynamics.
CHFJPY Chart
Economic News relating to CHFJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURJPY Analysis 26/01/2026 @ 20:00 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The EURJPY exchange rate reflects relative economic and monetary policy dynamics between the Eurozone and Japan. Key drivers in the short term include ongoing Japanese yen weakness, linked to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) prolonged accommodative stance and fiscal concerns, versus a comparatively resilient euro supported by stable eurozone data and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) balanced approach. Recent moves higher in the cross reflect renewed selling pressure on the yen amid fiscal risk narratives from Japan and expectations of sustained low Japanese interest rates.
Market commentary also notes that while the euro has exhibited relative strength, mixed macroeconomic signals from the Eurozone limit the decisiveness of fundamental drivers, leaving the pair sensitive to shifts in global risk sentiment and data releases.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals are mildly bullish for EURJPY, driven by yen weakness and supportive euro dynamics, tempered by balanced macro data and limited definitive monetary policy catalysts.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~183.1–183.2 JPY per EUR based on the latest available price indications.
Technical analysis suggests the pair remains within a range‑oriented pattern near recent levels after a pullback from resistance near the upper 180s. Indicators such as moving averages and momentum oscillators signal mixed near‑term bias, with some measures neutral and others showing short‑term bearish tendencies.
Based on recent pivot estimates and intraday price behaviour, the following approximate support and resistance levels are relevant:
| Level | Price (Approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~186.30 – 187.00 |
| R1 | ~185.00 – 185.50 |
| Current Spot Price | ~183.1 – 183.2 |
| S1 | ~181.5 – 182.0 |
| S2 | ~180.0 – 180.8 |
Resistance levels near the mid‑185s reflect recent highs and Fibonacci projection caps, while supports near 182.0 and 180.0 align with pivot retracement zones.
Technical verdict
The short‑term technical outlook is neutral to mildly bullish, with price action exhibiting range‑bound characteristics and momentum measures lacking a clear directional bias. Breaks above or below key pivot levels will likely define the next phase of price movement.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
Tactical ideas based on reactions around key pivot and range levels.
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy the dip | 181.5 – 182.0 | 185.0 → 186.3 | Close below 180.0 |
| Breakout buy | Above 185.5 | 186.3 → 187.0+ | Failure below 185.0 |
| Sell near resistance | 185.0 – 186.3 | 182.0 → 181.5 | Sustained above 187.0 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
The base case suggests continuation within the current range, with the pair oscillating between established support and resistance levels. Traders should manage risk around the key pivot zones, placing stop losses just beyond support breaks for bullish positions and above resistance for bearish ideas. Consolidation near pivot points suggests careful position sizing and adherence to risk limits.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Range consolidation | Price oscillates between support and resistance | 180.0 – 185.5 |
| Bullish breakout | Clear break above the mid‑185 range | 185.5 → 187.0+ |
| Pullback correction | Yen strengthening or macro shifts weaken upside | Below 180.0 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Short‑term fundamentals lean mildly bullish, supported by yen softness and supportive euro dynamics but balanced by mixed macroeconomic signals.
Technical verdict: Technical conditions are neutral to mildly bullish, with EURJPY trading within a range defined by rotational support and resistance levels.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for EURJPY is range‑oriented with a bullish bias, dependent on the pair’s ability to sustain support levels and break key resistance. Strategic trading should focus on pivot reactions and disciplined risk management around highlighted zones.
EURJPY Chart
Economic News relating to EURJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
USDJPY Analysis 26/01/2026 @ 20:15 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The USDJPY exchange rate is influenced by ongoing divergences in monetary policy expectations and evolving macroeconomic data from the United States and Japan. Recently, the Japanese yen has strengthened sharply against the US dollar following market speculation about potential currency intervention by Japanese authorities — driven by concerns over excessive yen weakness and possible coordinated action with the US — which has prompted risk adjustments in FX positions.
Broadly, the US dollar has weakened across major pairs amid safe‑haven demand and intervention fears, weighing on USDJPY’s upward momentum. Continued focus on Federal Reserve policy direction, US economic indicators, and Bank of Japan (BoJ) commentary on yield operations or FX intervention remains central to fundamental outlooks for USDJPY.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for USDJPY are mixed to neutral‑bearish, with structural dollar strength offset by yen‑related intervention risk and BoJ influences. Market sentiment is sensitive to macroeconomic data and policy statements that could quickly shift bias.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~158.5 JPY per USD based on latest market indications.
Technical insight shows that USDJPY has recently traded near multi‑month highs after breaching key resistance levels, but subsequent correction and consolidation have followed amid volatility and intervention concerns. Short‑term technical indicators suggest mixed price momentum, with some technical models indicating bullish bias above support zones, while intraday momentum leans neutral.
Pivot and recent technical studies suggest the following approximate support and resistance levels:
| Level | Price (Approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~158.85 – 159.75 |
| R1 | ~157.80 – 158.50 |
| Current Spot Price | ~158.5 |
| S1 | ~155.50 – 156.00 |
| S2 | ~153.80 – 154.50 |
Resistance around the upper 158s to near 1600 reflects key structural hurdles seen in recent price action, while support nearer the 155–156 areas aligns with intraday and daily pivot zones.
Technical verdict
The short‑term technical outlook for USDJPY is neutral with potential bullish bias, contingent on whether key resistance breaks occur or support holds. Market action suggests range‑oriented behaviour with directional conviction hinging on breakout confirmation and reaction to intervention signals.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
Tactical entries based on support holds and resistance tests in a volatile range.
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on support | 155.50 – 156.00 | 157.80 → 158.85 | Close below 153.80 |
| Breakout buy | Above 158.85 | 159.75 → 160.50+ | Failure below 158.00 |
| Sell/short near resist. | 158.80 – 159.75 | 156.00 → 155.00 | Sustained above 160.50 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
The base case envisages continued consolidation with bullish potential if USDJPY holds above intraday support and buyers regain control of resistance tests. Risk management should focus on placing protective stops near key support breaks and tightening exposure around areas prone to volatility from intervention signals or macro releases. Traders should also consider reduced position sizes amid elevated intervention risk and asymmetric event risk.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Range consolidation | Pair oscillates within defined support and resistance | 155.0 – 159.0 |
| Bullish breakout | Clean break above upper resistance | 159.8 → 161.0+ |
| Pullback correction | Yen strength or safe‑haven flows | Below 155.0 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: USDJPY fundamentals are mixed to neutral‑bearish, with structural drivers countered by near‑term yen strength and intervention risk, while macroeconomic data and policy signals remain watchpoints.
Technical verdict: Technical conditions show neutral to mildly bullish tendencies within a defined range, with movement contingent on key support and resistance reactions.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for USDJPY is range‑oriented with conditional bullish bias, requiring disciplined risk management due to possible FX intervention and macro event risks. Traders should prioritise reaction to pivot levels and sustain support holds for continuation scenarios.
USDJPY Chart
Economic News relating to USDJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
GBPUSD Analysis 26/01/2026 @ 20:31 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The GBPUSD pair has shown resilience amid broad US dollar weakness and supportive economic signals from the UK. Recent data indicate that sterling has benefitted from stronger‑than‑expected UK economic indicators such as PMI readings and retail sales, which have helped dampen market expectations for immediate Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts. Meanwhile, the US dollar has weakened across many major crosses, partly due to shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy and softer risk sentiment for the USD.
Mixed macroeconomic signals remain evident; markets are monitoring both UK and US data releases, including durable goods orders and upcoming central bank decisions, which could influence near‑term FX dynamics.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for GBPUSD are mildly bullish, supported by dollar weakness and relatively solid UK data that temper near‑term BoE easing expectations. The pair remains sensitive to macroeconomic data and central bank guidance from both the UK and the US.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~1.3680–1.3700 USD per GBP based on live market indicators and recent price action.
Technical sentiment shows that GBPUSD has climbed toward multi‑month highs, trading near key resistance levels after breaching several pivot points. Momentum indicators show a somewhat bullish bias, though overbought conditions in short‑term oscillators suggest caution.
The key support and resistance levels currently include:
| Level | Price (Approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~1.3750 – 1.3780 |
| R1 | ~1.3690 – 1.3710 |
| Current Spot Price | ~1.3680 – 1.3700 |
| S1 | ~1.3600 – 1.3630 |
| S2 | ~1.3530 – 1.3560 |
Resistance clusters reflect recent peaks and psychological levels around the mid‑1.37 region, while supports correspond to pivot retracement zones seen in recent trading ranges.
Technical verdict
The short‑term technical outlook is mildly bullish, with GBPUSD’s price action supported near higher levels and trading above key support ranges. However, the proximity to resistance and neutral‑to‑overbought oscillator readings suggest that upside momentum could be constrained without a decisive breakout.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
Technical setups focus on reactions around defined support and resistance bands.
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | 1.3600 – 1.3630 | 1.3690 → 1.3750 | Close below 1.3530 |
| Breakout buy | Above 1.3710 | 1.3750 → 1.3780+ | Failure below 1.3690 |
| Sell/short near resist | 1.3690 – 1.3750 | 1.3630 → 1.3600 | Sustained above 1.3780 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
The base case anticipates range‑bound trading with a bullish tilt, where GBPUSD oscillates between identified support and resistance ranges. Risk management should emphasise placing protective stops beyond key support or resistance breaks, given the proximity to technical thresholds and macroeconomic event risk.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | Break above resistance with momentum extension | 1.3750 → 1.3800+ |
| Range consolidation | Price rotates between current support and resistance | 1.3600 – 1.3750 |
| Pullback correction | USD strength or BoE easing surprises pressures Cable | Below 1.3600 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: GBPUSD is supported mildly bullish fundamentals, driven by dollar softness and relatively robust UK data that reduce immediate easing pressure from the BoE.
Technical verdict: Technical indicators point toward a mildly bullish outlook, with price action near resistance and supported by key pivots and moving averages.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for GBPUSD is bullish with range‑oriented characteristics, with strategic opportunities centered around support tests and resistance breakouts. Traders should manage risk carefully around key pivot levels and be prepared for volatility around macroeconomic releases from both the UK and the US.
GBPUSD Chart
Economic News relating to GBPUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURGBP Analysis 26/01/2026 @ 20:46 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The EURGBP cross reflects relative economic performance and monetary policy expectations in the Eurozone vs the United Kingdom. Recent euro‑pound price action has been influenced by mixed macroeconomic data and central bank expectations: stronger UK retail sales and PMI figures have supported the pound, while euro sentiment has wavered amid weaker German sentiment and economic indicators. UK data surprises to the upside, especially in retail and manufacturing, have reduced immediate expectations of UK rate cuts, bolstering sterling relative to the euro.
Conversely, positive market mood occasionally favours euro gains, and broader risk sentiment shifts can temporarily lift the euro against sterling. Overall, recent fundamental drivers remain somewhat balanced with periodic shifts depending on incoming data.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for EURGBP are neutral to slightly bearish for the euro, reflecting UK data strength and relative pound resilience against mixed eurozone signals. The pair’s movements hinge significantly on macro releases and central bank guidance from the ECB and BoE.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~0.8677 – 0.8685 EURGBP based on live market data.
Technical analysis reveals that the pair has recently pulled back from higher levels after resistance reactions, trading within a defined range with mixed indicator signals. Short‑term technical sentiment appears neutral to mildly bearish, with resistance holding and support levels being tested.
Based on recent price action and pivot estimations, approximate support and resistance levels are:
| Level | Price (Approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~0.8760 – 0.8780 |
| R1 | ~0.8730 – 0.8750 |
| Current Spot Price | ~0.8677 – 0.8685 |
| S1 | ~0.8620 – 0.8640 |
| S2 | ~0.8550 – 0.8580 |
Resistance near the mid‑0.87s has capped recent rallies, while supports in the low‑0.86s align with intraday pivot zones and previous lows. A sustainable break above the upper resistance zone could signal a shift toward bullish technical momentum.
Technical verdict
The short‑term technical outlook for EURGBP is neutral with a mild bearish tilt, characterised by a range‑bound structure with horizontal support and resistance holding key levels. Breaks of these ranges will determine subsequent directional conviction.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
Tactical approaches emphasise reactions around key support and resistance bands during consolidation.
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | 0.8620 – 0.8640 | 0.8730 → 0.8760 | Close below 0.8550 |
| Breakout buy | Above 0.8750 | 0.8760 → 0.8780+ | Failure below 0.8730 |
| Sell near resistance | 0.8730 – 0.8760 | 0.8640 → 0.8620 | Sustained above 0.8780 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
The base case anticipates range‑trading behaviour with mild bearish tailwinds unless resistance is decisively broken. Risk management should emphasise tight stops near support breaks and layered position sizing given modest range momentum and sensitivity to macroeconomic data.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Price oscillates between established levels | 0.8550 – 0.8760 |
| Bullish breakout | Break above resistance with momentum extension | 0.8760 → 0.8800+ |
| Bearish correction | Pound strength or weaker euro data | Below 0.8550 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Short‑term fundamentals are neutral to slightly bearish for EURGBP, influenced by stronger UK economic performance and mixed eurozone macro data.
Technical verdict: Technical analysis indicates a neutral to mildly bearish outlook, with the pair range‑bound and trading within defined pivot levels.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for EURGBP is range‑oriented with mild bearish bias, with critical support and resistance levels determining potential directional extensions. Traders should prioritise risk discipline and watch for decisive range breaks around key technical thresholds.
EURGBP Chart
Economic News relating to EURGBP
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
GBPJPY Analysis 26/01/2026 @ 21:00 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The GBPJPY exchange rate reflects relative economic conditions between the United Kingdom and Japan, as well as broader risk sentiment in global markets. Recent price action has been influenced by heightened intervention rhetoric from Japanese authorities, which has bid up the Japanese yen on safe‑haven flows and central bank signals, limiting upside for GBPJPY.
At the same time, the British pound has exhibited strength amid supportive UK macro data and firmer UK economic indicators, which underpin sterling relative to the yen. However, persistent volatility and risk‑off pressures when markets retreat to safe havens continue to weigh on cross rates like GBPJPY.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for GBPJPY are neutral to mildly bearish, with pound strength balanced against yen appreciation and intervention risk. Risk sentiment is a key driver in the near term.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~210.9 JPY per GBP (based on latest live data).
Technical analysis shows GBPJPY near consolidation after recent volatility. The pair has retreated from multi‑year highs and remains within key horizontal levels, with technical indicators mixed to neutral and short‑term momentum lacking definitive directional bias.
Key support and resistance levels are:
| Level | Price (Approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~215.90 – 216.95 |
| R1 | ~214.18 – 215.90 |
| Current Spot Price | ~210.9 |
| S1 | ~210.38 – 211.43 |
| S2 | ~208.67 – 209.50 |
Resistance near the 215.9–216.95 zone corresponds with recent multi‑year peaks, while supports around 210.4–208.7 tie to shorter‑term pivot levels and recent lows.
Technical verdict
The short‑term technical outlook is neutral with range characteristics, tilting toward bearish if key support breaks. Price action remains within defined boundaries with no clear breakout established.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy dip on support | 210.38 – 211.43 | 214.18 → 215.90 | Close below 208.67 |
| Breakout buy | Above 215.90 | 216.95 → 218.50+ | Failure below 214.18 |
| Sell near resistance | 214.18 – 216.95 | 211.43 → 210.38 | Sustained above 218.50 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
The base case anticipates range‑bound trading with potential downside pressure if intervention pronouncements or yen strength persists. Risk management should involve stops just beyond identified supports for longs and above resistance bands for shorts, given the sensitivity to intervention signals and macro event risk.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Range Consolidation | Price rotates within current support/resistance | 208.7 – 216.9 |
| Bullish Breakout | Clear break above resistance with momentum | 216.9 → 218.5+ |
| Bearish Pullback | Yen strength or safe‑haven flows deepen | Below 208.7 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Short‑term fundamentals are neutral to mildly bearish, influenced by yen strength, intervention risk and sterling resilience.
Technical verdict: Technical conditions are neutral with a bearish bias if support breaks, trading within a clearly defined range.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for GBPJPY is range‑oriented with mild bearish bias, with meaningful trading opportunities around support and resistance levels. Traders should focus on reaction to key pivots and incorporate risk limits around macro catalysts and intervention developments.
GBPJPY Chart
Economic News relating to GBPJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
XAGUSD Analysis 26/01/2026 @ 21:15 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The XAGUSD (silver) market has been dominated by an exceptional rally in early 2026, with spot prices surging past US $110 per ounce and into triple‑digit territory — driven by a combination of safe‑haven demand amid macroeconomic uncertainty, strong industrial demand, constrained physical supply and robust retail investment flows.
Macroeconomic drivers include safe‑haven flows amid risk aversion, a weak US dollar, and expectations that central bank easing (especially from the Federal Reserve) will lower real yields, increasing the appeal of non‑yielding precious metals. At the same time, silver’s dual role as both an industrial and store‑of‑value asset underpins a complex fundamental backdrop.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for XAGUSD are strongly bullish, supported by record‑breaking price moves, widespread demand across investor and industrial segments, and macro risk‑off environments, though some analysts warn that current levels may reflect speculative excess rather than fundamental valuation.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~112.20 – 113.08 USD per ounce according to recent price feeds.
Technical sentiment shows that silver is trading at or near fresh all‑time highs, indicating strong upward momentum. However, overbought oscillator readings and steep recent rallies raise the possibility of near‑term pullbacks or consolidation, even as the broader trend remains upward.
Approximate support and resistance levels based on recent technical data and pivots:
| Level | Price (Approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~120.00 |
| R1 | ~115.00 – 117.50 |
| Current Spot Price | ~112.20 – 113.08 |
| S1 | ~100.00 – 105.00 |
| S2 | ~96.00 – 98.00 |
Resistance levels are centred on psychological and recent high thresholds near $115–$120, with support around key psychological round numbers and breakout levels previously cleared.
Technical verdict
The short‑term technical outlook for XAGUSD is bullish, with strong trend momentum and fresh highs. Nevertheless, overbought conditions and the steepness of the rally suggest that a near‑term consolidation or pullback cannot be ruled out before any further extension.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on pullbacks | 100.00 – 105.00 | 115.00 → 120.00 | Close below 96.00 |
| Breakout buy | Above 117.50 | 120.00 → 130.00+ | Failure below 115.00 |
| Short near resistance | 115.00 – 120.00 | 105.00 → 100.00 | Sustained above 120.00 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
The base case anticipates continued trend extension with intermittent retracements as silver digests sharp gains. Risk management should focus on guarding against sharp pullbacks around key psychological supports and managing exposure given the elevated volatility and speculative dynamics evident in recent price action.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Continued uptrend | Price extends beyond current highs | 115.00 → 130.00+ |
| Consolidation | Retracement and sideways action near current levels | 100.00 – 118.00 |
| Pullback correction | Overbought indicators prompt deeper retracement | Below 100.00 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Fundamentals are strongly bullish in the short term, fuelled by safe‑haven demand, macro uncertainty, tight supply and industrial demand, even as some caution surrounds speculative excess.
Technical verdict: The technical outlook is bullish with fresh record highs and strong momentum, although overbought conditions and rapid gains indicate the potential for near‑term consolidation or pullbacks.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for XAGUSD is bullish with volatility, combining strong upward momentum with elevated risk of corrective moves. Traders should prioritise risk discipline and watch key support and resistance levels for potential entries and exits.
XAGUSD Chart
Economic News relating to XAGUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
