secundum Liber Abaci
Praemonitus, Praemunitus
Fibbinarchie
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
USDCHF Analysis 29/01/2026 @ 19:00 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Current fundamentals:
USD/CHF is trading around ~0.768 CHF per USD, reflecting a continued strengthening of the Swiss franc against the US dollar. The Swiss franc’s status as a safe‑haven currency has been reinforced by recent global geopolitical and macro uncertainty, prompting increased demand for CHF. This dynamic has pressured USD/CHF lower, consistent with reports highlighting the franc’s surge to decade‑high levels against the dollar.
On the US macro side, mixed economic signals and persistent interest rate uncertainty have influenced USD performance. Markets continue to factor in Federal Reserve policy expectations (including paused or slow tightening signals), which weigh on the US dollar versus safe‑haven assets like CHF.
In Switzerland, subdued inflation and ongoing franc strength present challenges for the Swiss National Bank (SNB). While the franc’s appreciation can dampen inflation, it also raises concerns for exporters and monetary policy objectives.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for USD/CHF are bearish, driven by Swiss franc safe‑haven demand, CHF strength on global risk aversion, and USD softness amid policy uncertainty.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~0.768 CHF per USD.
Technical indicators generally signal a bearish bias for USD/CHF:
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Moving average analysis shows a predominant sell signal across short and longer timeframes.
-
Recent technical outlooks note that the downtrend remains intact while resistance levels (e.g. 0.7792) hold.
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Price action remains below key intermediate moving averages, reinforcing downside pressure.
Approximate support and resistance levels (based on recent chart studies and pivot zones):
| Level | Price (Approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~0.7850 – 0.7880 |
| R1 | ~0.7780 – 0.7810 |
| Current Spot Price | ~0.7650 – 0.7700 |
| S1 | ~0.7560 – 0.7600 |
| S2 | ~0.7470 – 0.7500 |
Resistance: Near ~0.7780–0.7810, with stronger resistance around ~0.7850–0.7880. Support: Immediate below price around ~0.7560–0.7600, with deeper support near ~0.7470–0.7500.
Technical verdict
Technically, USD/CHF shows a bearish to neutral outlook in the short term, with price action below key resistances and moving averages reinforcing downside bias. Key support zones will be important to track for potential slowing of declines.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sell on rallies | ~0.7780 – 0.7810 | 0.7650 → 0.7560 | Above 0.7850 |
| Break confirmation sell | Below ~0.7600 | 0.7560 → 0.7470 | Above 0.7650 |
| Range support buy | ~0.7560 – 0.7600 | 0.7650 → 0.7710 | Below 0.7470 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: Continued downward pressure on USD/CHF is expected with the franc’s safe‑haven appeal and persistent USD softness. Sellers may look for rallies into resistance for tactical entries, and breaks below immediate support could accelerate declines toward lower pivots. Risk management should include tight stops just beyond structural pivot levels (e.g. above resistance when selling rallies).
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Bearish continuation | CHF safe‑haven flows deepen as USD softens further | 0.7470 – 0.7560 |
| Consolidation | Price oscillates with diminished volatility | 0.7560 – 0.7780 |
| Temporary bounce | USD strength or short covering lifts price | 0.7780 – 0.7880 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: USD/CHF is bearish in the short term, supported by a strong Swiss franc amid safe‑haven demand and subdued USD momentum.
Technical verdict: Technically, the outlook remains bearish to neutral, with resistance holding and downward structures intact.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for USD/CHF is bearish, with tactical opportunities focused on selling rallies toward resistance and monitoring key support levels for potential slowing of declines. Careful risk management around pivot zones remains essential.
USDCHF Chart
Economic News relating to USDCHF
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
XAUUSD Analysis 29/01/2026 @ 19:15 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Current fundamentals:
Spot gold (XAU/USD) has been surging to new record highs above $5,500 per ounce, driven primarily by safe‑haven demand amid geopolitical tensions, elevated global uncertainty, and a soft US dollar. Recent inflows into gold‑backed ETFs and rising investor interest have supported this uptrend.
Global macro drivers include ongoing geopolitical risks (e.g. Middle East tensions) and expectations around US monetary policy, with markets pricing in softer USD and possible Fed easing, further bolstering gold’s appeal as a hedge.
Industrial and central bank demand remain supportive in the medium term, though high prices have seen some cultural demand declines (e.g. gold jewellery), as noted by major industry reports.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
The short‑term fundamental outlook for XAU/USD is strongly bullish, anchored by safe‑haven flows, broad investment demand, and USD weakness, while elevated price levels may invite short‑term profit‑taking.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~$5,550 per ounce (XAU/USD).
Technical conditions show XAU/USD trading near all‑time highs with strong buyer participation, but some momentum indicators suggest overextended conditions. Recent pivot assessments and technical data provide key near‑term levels:
| Level | Price (Approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~5,766 – 5,800+ |
| R1 | ~5,592 – 5,620 |
| Current Spot Price | ~5,530 – 5,560 |
| S1 | ~5,244 – 5,270 |
| S2 | ~5,070 – 5,100 |
Resistance is evident around ~5,592–5,620 and above near ~5,766–5,800, with support levels established around ~5,244–5,270 and ~5,070–5,100 beneath current price action.
Broad technical sentiment remains bullish overall, with long‑term trend structures intact and price breaking key psychological barriers; however, overbought signals may signal short‑term consolidations or corrective phases.
Technical verdict
The technical outlook is bullish, characterised by continued upward price structure and breakout behaviour, though momentum indicators reflect overextension, increasing the probability of pullbacks within the broader uptrend.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~5,270 – 5,350 | 5,592 → 5,766 | Below 5,070 |
| Breakout buy | Above ~5,620 | 5,766 → 5,900+ | Below 5,550 |
| Tactical sell/correction | ~5,592 – 5,766 | 5,350 → 5,244 | Above 5,900 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: In the short term, gold is expected to stay within a bullish range with periodic pullbacks, reflecting strong fundamental support but occasional profit‑taking. Traders may consider buying on dips near support levels and cautious breakout entries above key resistance, using tight risk control just beyond pivotal supports/resistances due to elevated volatility.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | Safe‑haven demand and USD weakness sustain upside | 5,592 – 5,900+ |
| Consolidation | Profit‑taking offsets gains near all‑time highs | 5,270 – 5,620 |
| Retracement correction | Overbought conditions prompt deeper pullbacks | 5,070 – 5,270 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: XAU/USD’s fundamentals are strongly bullish in the short term, driven by heightened safe‑haven demand, global uncertainty, and USD weakness underpinning gold’s appeal.
Technical verdict: The technical outlook is bullish, with price breaking significant resistance and trend structures intact, though overbought signals may precipitate short‑term pullbacks.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for XAU/USD remains bullish, with opportunities to buy on dips and trade continued breakouts, while traders should remain attentive to pullbacks as part of broader risk management.
XAUUSD Chart
Economic News relating to XAUUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURUSD Analysis 29/01/2026 @ 19:30 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
EUR/USD has strengthened toward ~1.195–1.20, reaching levels not seen since mid‑2021, as the US dollar weakened on broader macro caution and elevated safe‑haven flows. The euro’s appreciation reflects a combination of dollar weakness, risk sentiment drivers and positioning, as well as resilient eurozone data in parts of the bloc.
However, recent commentary from European Central Bank policymakers highlights concern that a too‑strong euro could hamper inflation prospects and export competitiveness, reinforcing the view that monetary policy balance remains delicate.
On the US side, markets are watching Federal Reserve policy guidance closely. Expectations for a more dovish stance or delayed rate cuts have weighed on the dollar, supporting EUR/USD gains, but persistent US economic resilience could temper this narrative.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
The short‑term fundamental outlook for EUR/USD is cautiously bullish, supported by dollar softness and euro strength, but constrained by ECB concerns and asymmetrical policy dynamics that could limit broader upside.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~1.1953 USD per EUR.
Technical activity shows a mixed to bullish technical profile in the near term:
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EUR/USD has broken above recent resistance around 1.1900, indicating upside momentum.
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Moving averages and indicators show a blend of buy and neutral signals, with shorter‑term averages slightly supportive.
Key support and resistance levels derived from pivot analysis and recent price action:
| Level | Price (Approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~1.2000 – 1.2040 |
| R1 | ~1.1900 – 1.1930 |
| Current Spot Price | ~1.1930 – 1.1970 |
| S1 | ~1.1820 – 1.1850 |
| S2 | ~1.1730 – 1.1750 |
Resistance: The ~1.1900–1.1930 area has recently acted as near‑term resistance with a psychological barrier near 1.2000. Support: Beneath current levels, support clusters around ~1.1820–1.1850 and deeper near ~1.1730–1.1750.
Technical verdict
Technically, EUR/USD’s short‑term outlook is moderately bullish to neutral, reflecting recent breakout momentum balanced by mixed indicator signals and important support thresholds that may cap deeper pullbacks.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~1.1820 – 1.1850 | 1.1900 → 1.2000 | Below 1.1750 |
| Breakout buy | Above ~1.2000 | 1.2040 → 1.2100+ | Below 1.1900 |
| Tactical sell/correction | ~1.1900 – 1.2000 | 1.1850 → 1.1820 | Above 1.2100 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: EUR/USD is expected to trade with an upside bias in the short term, with corrective retracements likely to seek support near ~1.1820–1.1850. Buyers may look to accumulate on dips toward support, while breakouts above key resistance near 1.2000 could signal further gains. Protection via stop orders just beyond structural levels is advised to manage adverse moves.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | Continued dollar weakness and euro momentum persist | 1.1900 – 1.2100+ |
| Consolidation | Range‑bound price action around key pivots | 1.1820 – 1.2000 |
| Retracement correction | Profit‑taking and technical pullbacks | 1.1750 – 1.1820 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: The fundamentals for EUR/USD are cautiously bullish, driven by dollar weakness and euro strength, but shaped by central bank commentary and policy considerations that could constrain sharp directional moves.
Technical verdict: Technically, the pair’s short‑term outlook is moderately bullish to neutral, with recent upside momentum balanced by key support and resistance thresholds.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for EUR/USD favours modest upside, with strategic opportunities in buy‑on‑dip setups and potential breakout trades above key resistance levels, while risk management around support pivots remains critical.
EURUSD Chart
Economic News relating to EURUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
CHFJPY Analysis 29/01/2026 @ 19:45 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
CHF/JPY (Swiss franc vs Japanese yen) reflects broader macro and safe‑haven currency dynamics. The pair’s price continues to trade near around ¥199–¥200 per CHF, showing recent modest downside movement within this region.
At the macro level, the Swiss franc tends to benefit from safe‑haven demand due to Switzerland’s relative economic stability and attractive interest differentials versus Japan, while the Japanese yen remains sensitive to domestic policy and risk sentiment amid ongoing global uncertainties. Recent Reuters news highlights yen weakness against peers on BOJ policy shifts and risk appetite, which can support CHF/JPY strength.
However, structural shifts in Japanese monetary policy and election‑linked dynamics for the yen could feed volatility into this cross, with coordinated actions or interventions potentially influencing near‑term trends.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for CHF/JPY are neutral to mildly bullish, underpinned by relative franc strength and yen sensitivity to policy and risk sentiment, though macro drivers remain mixed and reactive to broader FX conditions.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~¥199.7 per CHF.
Technical conditions portray a somewhat mixed short‑term outlook:
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Some technical frameworks signal potential selling pressure amid pullbacks within a larger trend structure.
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Other analyses highlight a supportive ascending channel and active buying zones that have been respected, suggesting continued medium‑term bullish tendency.
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Pivot and standard support/resistance data from recent aggregated levels shows a range of key thresholds.
Approximate support and resistance levels drawn from recent pivot and technical sources:
| Level | Price (Approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~201.30 – 202.64 |
| R1 | ~199.90 – 200.90 |
| Current Spot Price | ~198.60 – 200.20 |
| S1 | ~197.15 – 197.50 |
| S2 | ~195.84 – 195.30 |
Resistance: Upper levels around ~199.9–200.9 and beyond 201.3–202.6 could cap upside in the near term. Support: Immediate support appears around ~197.1–197.5, with deeper support near ~195.8–195.3 beneath current trading.
Technical verdict
From a technical standpoint, CHF/JPY’s near‑term bias is neutral to cautiously bullish, with mixed signals from oscillators and structural patterns that imply the potential for both continued recovery within an ascending channel and short‑term corrections at key resistance levels.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on support | ~197.15 – 198.00 | 199.90 → 201.30 | Below 195.30 |
| Breakout buy | Above ~200.90 – 201.30 | 202.64 → 204.00+ | Below 199.90 |
| Tactical sell on rally | ~199.90 – 202.00 | 197.50 → 195.30 | Above 204.00 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: CHF/JPY is expected to trade within a range defined by key technical pivots, with potential upside moves toward resistance levels if buyers regain focus while respecting support levels for pullbacks. Traders should consider buying near support zones and selling on stronger resistance tests. Risk controls ought to be placed just beyond pivotal support/resistance thresholds due to oscillating short‑term sentiment.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | Buyers push above near resistance toward higher pivots | 200.90 – 204.00+ |
| Consolidation | Price remains range‑bound within established levels | 197.50 – 200.90 |
| Retracement correction | Pullback toward deeper support amidst risk shifts | 195.30 – 197.50 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: CHF/JPY’s short‑term fundamentals are neutral to mildly bullish, shaped by interplay between franc safe‑haven support and yen sensitivity to policy and risk catalysts.
Technical verdict: Technically, the outlook is neutral to cautiously bullish, with key support and resistance levels guiding potential range trade behaviours and contingent breakout dynamics.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for CHF/JPY suggests a balanced environment, with tactical opportunities on support‑level buys and resistance‑linked sell setups, and careful risk management around key pivot zones likely to be central to execution in the current market context.
CHFJPY Chart
Economic News relating to CHFJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURJPY Analysis 29/01/2026 @ 20:00 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
EUR/JPY reflects broader macro forces affecting both the euro and the Japanese yen. The pair is sensitive to monetary policy divergences between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). A relatively more hawkish ECB compared with BoJ’s continued ultra‑loose stance supports euro strength versus the yen, though recent data show mixed momentum in both regions.
Recent dynamics in global FX markets include yen strength against the US dollar, partly linked to speculation over intervention aimed at stabilising the yen. This can have knock‑on effects in yen crosses such as EUR/JPY by anchoring JPY support.
Overall, risk sentiment and yield differentials remain key drivers: risk‑on environments tend to favour higher EUR/JPY, while risk‑off flows and potential yen interventions introduce volatility and occasional downside pressure.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals are neutral to mildly bullish. Structural monetary policy divergence provides a base for upside, but mixed macro signals and yen sensitivity to risk sentiment temper the outlook.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~183.07 JPY per EUR.
Technical indicators paint a neutral to cautiously bearish near‑term picture, with moving averages mixed and momentum indicators suggesting limited directional conviction. ActionForex technical commentary notes sideways to downward risk while key resistance holds, pending breakouts or breakdowns from recent ranges.
Key support and resistance levels for near‑term trading:
| Level | Price (Approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~186.86 |
| R1 | ~184.00 – 185.00 |
| Current Spot Price | ~182.90 – 183.40 |
| S1 | ~181.76 – 182.20 |
| S2 | ~178.50 – 179.70 |
Resistance: Immediate resistance resides near ~184.00–185.00, with a higher ceiling around the recent peak near 186.86; upside may be capped unless broader momentum shifts. Support: Near‑term support sits in the ~181.76–182.20 zone, with deeper support around ~178.50–179.70 if declines accelerate.
Technical verdict
Technically, the short‑term outlook is neutral to mildly bearish. Price action lacks clear directional conviction, and mixed indicator signals suggest the pair may consolidate or correct before any sustained directional move.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~181.76 – 182.20 | 184.00 → 186.00 | Below 179.70 |
| Breakout buy | Above ~185.00 – 186.86 | 187.50 → 190.00+ | Below 184.00 |
| Tactical sell/correction | ~184.00 – 186.00 | 182.20 → 178.50 | Above 187.00 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: EUR/JPY is likely to trade in a consolidation range defined by the above supports and resistances, with shorter pullbacks toward support and rallies toward resistance. Traders might favour buy on dip entries near support levels and consider breakout buys if resistance levels are decisively breached. Use tight stops beyond pivotal levels to manage risk due to mixed technical signals.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | Renewed upside momentum if risk sentiment improves and resistance breaks | 184.00 – 188.00+ |
| Consolidation | Sideways movement within key support/resistance zones | 181.70 – 185.00 |
| Retracement correction | Yen strength or risk‑off flows prompt pullbacks | 178.50 – 181.70 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: The fundamental backdrop for EUR/JPY is neutral to mildly bullish, supported by interest rate differentials and monetary policy divergence, yet balanced by yen sensitivity to risk sentiment and potential interventions.
Technical verdict: The technical picture is neutral to mildly bearish, with mixed indicator signals and consolidation around current levels.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for EUR/JPY suggests range‑bound movement, with tactical opportunities on dips and near resistance tests. Breakouts above or below key pivot levels could define the next directional phase, and careful risk management is essential due to mixed sentiment and macro dynamics.
EURJPY Chart
Economic News relating to EURJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
USDJPY Analysis 29/01/2026 @ 20:14 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
USD/JPY is trading around ¥152.8–153.1 per USD as of the latest market data. The pair has recently shown pressure on the US dollar, linked to broader USD weakness across global FX amid policy uncertainty in the United States and weaker economic catalysts, while the Japanese yen has strengthened on intervention speculation and safe‑haven flows.
In the longer‑term context, diverging central bank policies — especially the Bank of Japan’s historically loose stance versus the Federal Reserve’s neutral stance — remain influential, but near‑term volatility is being driven by unexpected USD weakness and potential Japan/US coordinated efforts to support the yen.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals are neutral to mildly bearish for USD/JPY. Weakness in the US dollar paired with intermittent yen strength — potentially amplified by intervention speculation — suggests downside biases, though long‑term policy divergence continues to provide structural support to the pair.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~152.9 JPY per USD.
Short‑term technical indicators show mixed to bearish momentum: moving averages have flagged selling pressure, and recent action suggests consolidation or potential further downside if key supports fail. The pair has been consolidating below a key resistance zone near ¥154.5, suggesting upside may remain capped without a clear breakout.
Approximate support and resistance levels:
| Level | Price (Approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~154.95 – 155.50 |
| R1 | ~154.05 – 154.50 |
| Current Spot Price | ~152.70 – 153.20 |
| S1 | ~151.96 – 152.40 |
| S2 | ~150.70 – 151.00 |
Resistance: Near‑term upside may be capped around ¥154.05–154.50, with stronger barriers near ¥154.95–155.50. Support: Immediate support lies near ¥151.96–152.40, with further downside support around ¥150.70–151.00.
Technical verdict
Technically, the short‑term outlook is neutral to mildly bearish. Prices have broken below some recent support zones and exhibit bearish signals from momentum indicators, though stabilisation around key supports could prompt range‑bound behaviour before any clear directional trend resumes.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ¥151.96 – ¥152.40 | 154.05 → 154.95 | Below ¥150.70 |
| Breakout buy | Above ¥154.50 – ¥154.95 | 155.50 → 156.60 | Below ¥154.00 |
| Tactical sell/correction | ¥153.50 – ¥154.50 | 152.40 → 151.00 | Above ¥155.50 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: USD/JPY is expected to remain range‑bound in the near term, with short‑term selling pressure balanced by support around ¥152.0–152.5. Traders may look to accumulate near defined support zones while watching for a decisive breakout above ¥154.5 to shift bias toward recovery. Risk management should include protective stops just beyond key technical levels due to ongoing volatility.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Bearish continuation | Continued USD weakness supports deeper declines | ¥150.70 – 152.50 |
| Consolidation | Sideways trading within defined support/resistance | ¥151.96 – 154.50 |
| Breakout upside | Renewed USD strength or fade in intervention talk | ¥154.50 – 156.60+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: The fundamental backdrop for USD/JPY is neutral to mildly bearish, driven by USD weakness and intermittent yen strength influenced by intervention speculation and risk‑driven flows.
Technical verdict: Technically, the short‑term outlook is neutral to mildly bearish, as prices consolidate below major resistance and momentum indicators signal selling pressure.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for USD/JPY favours range‑bound or mildly bearish conditions, with tactical buy opportunities on dips near support and careful attention to resistance levels that could indicate broader trend shifts.
USDJPY Chart
Economic News relating to USDJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
GBPUSD Analysis 29/01/2026 @ 20:30 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Recent price action in GBP/USD reflects a relatively strong British pound against the US dollar, with the pair recently reaching levels above ~1.36–1.37, near a four‑month high, supported by robust UK economic data including strong business activity and retail sales, alongside weakness in the US dollar tied to broader USD selling pressure.
However, the fundamental picture remains nuanced. While sterling has gained, markets are pricing in potential interest rate cuts by the Bank of England later in 2026, and political uncertainties in the UK could introduce risks. In contrast, USD dynamics have been driven by Fed policy positioning and dollar volatility, creating mixed influences on the pair.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamental outlook is neutral to mildly bullish for GBP/USD. Solid recent UK data and dollar weakness have provided support, but potential BoE rate cuts and external uncertainties limit conviction on sustained upside.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~1.379–1.380.
Technical indicators and pivot analysis suggest range‑bound behaviour with bias toward recent highs: daily pivot data shows the pair trading close to key resistance levels with immediate support below. Moreover, short‑term technical studies show mixed signals across timeframes, with consolidation evident around recent peaks below major resistance thresholds.
Approximate support and resistance levels based on recent pivot and broader technical references:
| Level | Price (Approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~1.3814 – 1.3883 |
| R1 | ~1.3806 – 1.3841 |
| Current Spot Price | ~1.3740 – 1.3810 |
| S1 | ~1.3750 – 1.3789 |
| S2 | ~1.3700 – 1.3755 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance clusters around ~1.3806–1.3841 and higher levels near ~1.3814–1.3883. Support: Immediate support resides near ~1.3700–1.3755, with deeper support zones below.
Technical verdict
Technically, the short‑term outlook is neutral. Price action near key resistance suggests consolidation, and mixed signals across technical indicators imply the absence of a clear trend, though recent support has held amid range trading.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~1.3700 – 1.3755 | 1.3806 → 1.3883 | Below 1.3650 |
| Breakout buy | Above ~1.3841 – 1.3883 | 1.3900 → 1.3950+ | Below 1.3800 |
| Tactical sell/correction | ~1.3806 – 1.3883 | 1.3755 → 1.3700 | Above 1.3950 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: GBP/USD is expected to trade within a range defined by key pivot levels, with directional moves contingent on breakouts beyond resistance or breakdowns below support. The neutral technical stance suggests range trading strategies may be effective — buying near support zones and selling nearer resistance — while fundamental drivers could tilt sentiment intraday. Protective stops just outside pivotal levels can manage risk due to potential volatility from macro data releases and central bank expectations.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | Continued sterling strength and further US dollar softness | 1.3800 – 1.3950+ |
| Consolidation | Range‑bound trading within established pivots | 1.3700 – 1.3850 |
| Retracement correction | Pound pullback amid shift in risk or data releases | 1.3600 – 1.3700 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: The fundamental backdrop for GBP/USD is neutral to mildly bullish, driven by strong UK data and recent dollar weakness, though potential BoE easing and geopolitical uncertainty temper the outlook.
Technical verdict: The technical picture is neutral, with GBP/USD exhibiting consolidation near key resistance levels and mixed signals from technical indicators suggesting limited short‑term trend clarity.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for GBP/USD favours range‑based strategies, with tactical opportunities on dips toward support and breakouts above resistance if confirmed by broader sentiment and data. Careful risk management around key technical pivots is recommended given mixed directional cues.
GBPUSD Chart
Economic News relating to GBPUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURGBP Analysis 29/01/2026 @ 20:45 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
EUR/GBP is trading around 0.8665–0.8670 at the latest snapshot. Short‑term dynamics reflect modest euro strength against the British pound, supported by a lack of strong domestic UK catalysts this week, while markets focus on forthcoming Eurozone and German GDP and inflation data that could influence the euro’s intraday direction.
Monetary policy expectations remain influential: the European Central Bank (ECB) has signalled caution on further tightening, maintaining rates but balancing inflation risk, whereas the Bank of England (BoE) may face pressure to consider easing amid mixed UK data. Divergent economic data and policy expectations continue to drive cross‑currency positioning in EUR/GBP.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamental outlook is neutral. The euro’s mild gains are counterbalanced by limited sterling drivers and upcoming macro data releases that could swing market sentiment. The broader policy backdrop — ECB caution versus potential UK rate adjustments — suggests no strong directional bias immediately.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~0.8665 GBP per EUR.
Technical sentiment shows range‑bound price action with downside risk while key resistance holds. Recent technical commentary highlights a neutral intraday bias and potential for declines if resistance near 0.8744 continues to cap upside. Traders remain focused on support clusters around the 0.8618–0.8635 zone, with a break below that suggesting deeper corrective moves.
Approximate support and resistance levels based on recent pivot and technical references:
| Level | Price (Approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~0.8744 |
| R1 | ~0.8693 |
| Current Spot Price | ~0.8650 – 0.8670 |
| S1 | ~0.8635 |
| S2 | ~0.8618 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance clusters around the 0.8693–0.8744 zone, and upside may remain capped while those levels hold. Support: Immediate support resides near 0.8635, with deeper downside around 0.8618 and broader corrective thresholds beneath.
Technical verdict
Technically, the short‑term outlook is neutral to mildly bearish. The pair remains range‑bound and susceptible to downside pressure if resistance levels cap rallies. A break of support pivots could open more bearish potential.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~0.8635 – 0.8650 | 0.8693 → 0.8744 | Below 0.8618 |
| Breakout buy | Above ~0.8744 | 0.8760 → 0.8800+ | Below 0.8693 |
| Tactical sell/correction | ~0.8680 – 0.8744 | 0.8650 → 0.8618 | Above 0.8800 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: EUR/GBP is expected to remain within a defined range, with upside caps near resistance and support holding back declines in the short term. Traders could look to buy on dips near support zones and consider breakout buys if resistance is decisively breached. Protective stops just outside pivot thresholds help manage risk in a mixed technical environment.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | Price oscillates within established support/resistance | 0.8618 – 0.8744 |
| Breakout upside | Euro strength or disappointing UK data drives upside | 0.8744 – 0.8800+ |
| Breakout downside | Sterling resilience or weaker euro data pushes lower | 0.8580 – 0.8635 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: The short‑term fundamental backdrop is neutral, with mild euro gains offset by limited sterling drivers and looming macroeconomic releases.
Technical verdict: The technical picture is neutral to mildly bearish, with range‑bound action and resistance near 0.8744 capping upside and support levels guiding downside thresholds.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for EUR/GBP suggests range‑bound trading, with opportunities on support tests and resistance breakouts. Careful risk management around key technical pivot levels is recommended given mixed directional signals.
EURGBP Chart
Economic News relating to EURGBP
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
GBPJPY Analysis 29/01/2026 @ 21:01 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
GBP/JPY reflects macro influences from both UK economic developments and Japanese yen dynamics. The pair has been supported by sterling strength in the face of mixed UK data, while the Japanese yen remains sensitive to risk sentiment and Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy expectations that contrast with the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate outlook. Diverging monetary policy paths historically have supported GBP/JPY’s uptrend, though near‑term developments hinge on incoming data and global risk trends. Market sentiment has recently fluctuated between risk‑on support for GBP and intermittent yen strength on safe‑haven flows.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamental outlook is neutral to mildly bullish. Structural support from policy divergence persists, but recent consolidation and mixed macro catalysts — especially yen sensitivity to risk flows — moderate confidence in a sustained directional move.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~211.2 JPY per GBP.
Short‑term technical sentiment reflects neutral to mildly bearish intraday bias with range dynamics dominating. Recent daily outlook commentary notes that the intraday bias remains neutral to the downside while key resistance near ~214.8 holds, and breaks below short‑term support could signal deeper retracements.
Approximate support and resistance levels (based on recent pivot and technical data):
| Level | Price (Approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~214.83 |
| R1 | ~212.58 – 213.00 |
| Current Spot Price | ~210.80 – 211.20 |
| S1 | ~209.61 – 210.00 |
| S2 | ~208.20 – 208.90 |
Resistance: Tests at ~212.6–214.8 cap upside until convincingly breached. Support: Near‑term support near ~209.6–210.0, with deeper EMAs and structural supports near ~208.2–208.9 if range breaks lower.
Technical verdict
Technically, the short‑term outlook is neutral to mildly bearish. The pair trades within a broad range, with signs of downside pressure intact as long as resistance persists and key short‑term supports are tested. Mixed signals from oscillators and pivot structures indicate consolidation more than a clear trend.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | ~209.61 – 210.00 | 212.58 → 214.83 | Below 208.20 |
| Breakout buy | Above ~214.83 | 216.50 → 218.00+ | Below 212.50 |
| Tactical sell/correction | ~212.50 – 214.83 | 210.00 → 208.20 | Above 218.00 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: GBP/JPY is expected to trade within a defined range, with consolidation between support and resistance zones dominating near‑term action. Traders may look to buy near defined support levels and sell or take profits near resistance, while breakouts beyond the range could shift the bias. Protective stops just beyond pivotal technical levels are key due to the pair’s volatility and mixed directional signals.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | GBP/JPY oscillates within established support/resistance | ~209.6 – 214.8 |
| Breakout upside | Sterling strength or bullish catalysts drive higher | 214.8 – 218.0+ |
| Breakout downside | Yen strength or broader risk‑off flows push lower | ~208.2 – 205.0 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: The short‑term fundamental outlook is neutral to mildly bullish, supported by enduring policy divergence but moderated by risk sentiment influences and mixed macro catalysts.
Technical verdict: The technical picture is neutral to mildly bearish, with range‑bound price action and resistance holding while key supports are tested.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for GBP/JPY favours range‑based strategies with emphasis on support dips and resistance tests. Directional conviction may increase upon breakout beyond pivotal levels, but current conditions suggest consolidation with tactical opportunities and the need for disciplined risk management around key technical pivots.
GBPJPY Chart
Economic News relating to GBPJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
XAGUSD Analysis 29/01/2026 @ 21:16 GMT
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
XAGUSD (silver priced in US dollars) has been remarkably strong on a year‑to‑date basis, trading near multi‑year highs around ~$116–$117 per ounce following fresh record peaks, supported by safe‑haven demand, geopolitical tensions, and weaker US dollar dynamics. The broader rally in precious metals — including significant gains in gold — reflects heightened investor interest amid macro uncertainty and risk aversion, which often boosts silver’s appeal given its dual role as a store of value and industrial metal.
Industrial demand, particularly from sectors such as solar energy and electronics, has also been cited as underpinning longer‑term support, while supply constraints persist in the physical market. However, analysts warn that overbought technical conditions and potential profit‑taking may temper further immediate gains.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals remain mildly bullish. Safe‑haven interest, weakened USD influences, and strong industrial demand underpin near‑term silver prices, but elevated valuations and profit‑taking risk could introduce volatility and moderate momentum.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current Spot Price: ~$116.0–$116.8 per ounce (XAGUSD).
Technical sentiment signals bullish structure but signs of slowing upside momentum and consolidation after record highs. RSI and other momentum indicators show divergence, suggesting buyers need confirmation above key resistance levels to maintain sustained rallies. Pivot and support/resistance analyses from recent technical reads also reveal crucial levels that traders are watching.
Approximate support and resistance levels:
| Level | Price (Approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | ~$120.00 – $120.50 |
| R1 | ~$118.00 – $119.00 |
| Current Spot Price | ~$116.00 – $116.80 |
| S1 | ~$115.40 – $115.80 |
| S2 | ~$112.80 – $113.50 |
Resistance: Near‑term resistance is clustered between $118.00 and ~$120.50, with renewed breakouts above this zone needed to reaffirm strong bullish momentum. Support: Immediate support lies near $115.40, with deeper support around $112.80–$113.50 if the market corrects.
Technical verdict
Technically, the short‑term outlook is mildly bullish but increasingly consolidation‑prone. While the trend remains structurally higher, signs of momentum divergence and sideways movement around key resistance zones suggest caution for further immediate upside without clear breakout confirmation.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target(s) | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on dips | $113.00 – $115.40 (support) | $118.00 → $120.50 | Below $112.80 |
| Breakout buy | Above ~$120.50 | $123.00 → $126.00+ | Below $118.00 |
| Sell/Range fade | $118.00 – $120.50 resistance | $115.40 → $112.80 | Above $121.00 |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
Base case: XAGUSD is expected to remain in a consolidation or mildly bullish pattern, with price fluctuations within the defined range between key support and resistance. Traders may consider buying near support zones and taking profits near resistance, employing protective stops to guard against sudden pullbacks, as momentum signs show potential slowing. Risk controls are especially important given silver’s historical volatility and recent sharp gains.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | Renewed safe‑haven flows or weaker USD push prices higher | $118.0 – $125.0+ |
| Consolidation | Sideways action within recent highs and supports | $112.8 – $120.5 |
| Correction pullback | Profit‑taking and momentum fade | $110.0 – $112.8 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: The fundamental backdrop for XAGUSD is mildly bullish, underpinned by strong safe‑haven demand, favourable industrial drivers, and macroeconomic uncertainty that supports precious metal flows, though overextended price levels raise caution.
Technical verdict: Technically, the market remains mildly bullish but showing consolidation tendencies, with momentum indicators signaling possible short‑term pause around key resistance zones.
Overall conclusion: The short‑term outlook for XAGUSD suggests cautious bullishness within a defined range, with tactical opportunities to buy near established support and watch for breakouts above resistance for further gains. Risk management is key given recent elevated volatility and mixed momentum signals.
XAGUSD Chart
Economic News relating to XAGUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
