Fundamental / Economic Outlook (Immediate Short Term)
UK side – supportive but softening
Sterling just had a strong “Rachel rally” after Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ budget, which reassured markets on fiscal discipline and boosted GBP – last week was the pound’s best in over 3 months.Reuters
Now we’re seeing profit-t…
Category: Daily Fib
USDJPY – 01/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short-term)
The biggest near-term shift for the Yen: Bank of Japan (BoJ) has recently signalled a rate-hike in December is now plausible. That raises expectations of higher Japanese yields, which supports the yen. Reuters+2Financial Times+2
Meanwhile, in the U.S., markets are increasingly pricing possi…
EURUSD – 01/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short-term)
A key driver for EUR/USD remains the interplay between the monetary policy outlook of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). When markets price increasing odds of U.S. dollar weakness (e.g. rate cuts, softer U.S. data), that tends to support EUR/USD — in 2025 there has be…
USDCHF – 01/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The recent environment for USD/CHF shows a mix of forces — some favouring the Swiss franc (CHF), some putting pressure on the US dollar (USD). Key drivers:
Growing market expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) appear to be weighing on the dollar. As of ear…
EURJPY – 30/11/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short-term)
The general backdrop for EUR/JPY remains somewhat supportive: the euro (EUR) is benefitting from relatively stabilizing macroeconomic conditions and some pickup in Euro-area inflation/price stability narratives, which helps underpin demand for EUR. FastBull+2LiteFinance+2
On the Japanese side, …
USDJPY – 30/11/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (near-term)
The ongoing divergence between U.S. and Japanese monetary conditions remains a core driver for USD/JPY — U.S. dollar strength (via higher U.S. yields / rate differentials) continues to lend support to USD against the Yen. XTB.com+2Fusion Markets | Low Cost Forex Broker+2
But that picture i…
GBPUSD – 30/11/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (near-term)
The recent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) “upgrade” to UK growth prospects — alongside the government’s autumn budget — gave a modest boost to the Pound, lifting GBP/USD above ~1.32. Currency News+2Investing.com UK+2
At the same time, markets are increasingly pricing in a p…
EURUSD – 30/11/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (near-term)
The underlying strength of the U.S. dollar remains a powerful headwind for EUR/USD — strong U.S. economic data, inflation and rate expectations (versus the eurozone) continue to push USD support, which undermines EUR/USD in the short term. DailyForex+2FXStreet+2
That said, there is some mo…
USDCHF – 30/11/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (near-term)
The USD/CHF remains sensitive to divergence (or perceived divergence) between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Swiss National Bank (SNB). Historically, stronger-USD/CHF moves happen when USD yields or rate expectations rise versus CHF. Pepperstone+2FXStreet+2
The CHF retains its safe-haven appe…