Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Gold remains primarily driven by the interplay between real yields, USD direction, and risk sentiment as markets transition out of year-end liquidity conditions. Early January flows typically see portfolio rebalancing and renewed positioning around expectations for US monetary policy in Q1.
Key short-t…
Category: Daily Fib
USDCHF 02/01/2026
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
USDCHF remains primarily driven by relative USD yield dynamics versus Swiss franc safe-haven demand. Into early January, market liquidity remains thinner than average, amplifying sensitivity to US data surprises and shifts in global risk sentiment.
On the US side, ex…
GBPUSD 29/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The short-term fundamental backdrop for GBPUSD is shaped by late-year liquidity conditions, relative monetary policy expectations, and residual positioning into year-end. Sterling remains supported by comparatively resilient UK growth data and a cautious but less dovish Bank of England sta…
USDJPY 29/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
USDJPY remains primarily driven by monetary policy divergence and year-end liquidity conditions. The US dollar continues to be supported by comparatively higher US yields, while the Japanese yen remains structurally weak due to the Bank of Japan’s gradual and cautious approach to policy normalisation.…
EURUSD 29/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Short-term fundamentals remain dominated by late-year liquidity conditions, relative central-bank policy expectations, and residual US dollar positioning after recent macro releases.
United States:The Federal Reserve is firmly in a data-dependent holding pattern. Recent inflation moderation has…
USDCHF 29/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The short-term USDCHF backdrop remains driven by relative monetary policy expectations, year-end liquidity conditions, and defensive currency flows. With the Federal Reserve maintaining a restrictive stance but signalling data-dependence rather than urgency, USD support is st…
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CHFJPY 19/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Swiss franc (CHF): Safe-haven demand remains supported amid late-week risk management and year-end positioning. Swiss data remains subdued, keeping the SNB neutral, but CHF retains defensive bid.
Japanese yen (JPY): The yen remains sensitive to yield differentials and BoJ normalisation expe…
EURGBP 19/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
UK side: Sterling remains sensitive to late-week positioning ahead of upcoming UK data releases and year-end liquidity conditions. Recent UK macro signals suggest stabilisation rather than acceleration, limiting fresh GBP demand in the very near term.
Eurozone side: The euro continues to tr…
EURJPY 19/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Monetary policy divergence:The Bank of Japan remains accommodative, with yield-curve control and ultra-low rates continuing to suppress JPY demand. In contrast, the European Central Bank maintains a comparatively restrictive stance, underpinning EUR on rate differentials.
Risk sentiment:Bro…