Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
UK side: Sterling remains sensitive to late-week positioning ahead of upcoming UK data releases and year-end liquidity conditions. Recent UK macro signals suggest stabilisation rather than acceleration, limiting fresh GBP demand in the very near term.
Eurozone side: The euro continues to tr…
Author: Fibbinarchie
EURJPY 19/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Monetary policy divergence:The Bank of Japan remains accommodative, with yield-curve control and ultra-low rates continuing to suppress JPY demand. In contrast, the European Central Bank maintains a comparatively restrictive stance, underpinning EUR on rate differentials.
Risk sentiment:Bro…
EURUSD 19/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
US dollar dynamics: The US dollar remains supported by relatively firm US yields and resilient economic data, limiting downside pressure. However, positioning is increasingly stretched, reducing follow-through momentum.
Euro area backdrop: Euro area data remains mixed, with growth indicator…
GBPJPY 19/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
GBPJPY remains primarily driven by interest rate differentials and broader risk sentiment. Sterling continues to be supported by relatively restrictive Bank of England policy expectations compared with the Bank of Japan’s still-accommodative stance. However, late-week positioning and reduced liquidity…
GBPUSD 19/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Sterling remains supported by the UK’s comparatively resilient services activity and a Bank of England stance that continues to prioritise inflation containment over near-term growth concerns. However, this support is tempered by softening UK consumer indicators and signs of slowing wage momentum.On t…
USDCHF 19/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
USDCHF trades around 0.7945, with short-term direction shaped by late-week positioning and relative monetary policy expectations. The US Dollar remains sensitive to recent inflation prints and interest-rate guidance, while the Swiss Franc continues to draw intermittent safe-haven demand, particularly in…
USDJPY 19/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
USDJPY remains primarily driven by the interest rate differential between the United States and Japan. US yields continue to hold at elevated levels, supported by resilient US economic data and a cautious Federal Reserve stance regarding the pace of future rate cuts. This maintains underlying USD suppor…
XAGUSD 19/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Silver remains primarily driven by a combination of US dollar dynamics, real yield expectations, and broader risk sentiment. With the Federal Reserve in a late-cycle stance, markets continue to price gradual easing into 2026, keeping real yields capped in the near term. This backdrop remains broadly sup…
XAUUSD 19/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Gold remains supported by a combination of late-cycle macro conditions and near-term risk sensitivity. Recent US data has reinforced expectations that policy rates are close to their terminal level, with markets increasingly focused on the timing and pace of eventual easing rather than further tightenin…
CHFJPY 18/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
CHFJPY remains primarily driven by relative risk sentiment and central bank policy expectations. The Japanese yen continues to trade as a funding and defensive currency, with near-term price action sensitive to global equity volatility and US yields. The Swiss franc also retains defensive charac…