Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Short-term fundamentals remain relatively balanced, with neither Sterling nor the Euro showing a decisive macro advantage. UK data flow has been mixed, with resilience in services activity offset by ongoing sensitivity to restrictive financial conditions and slowing consumer momentum. In the Euro area, …
Author: Fibbinarchie
EURJPY 18/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Near-term EURJPY dynamics remain driven by yield differentials and risk sentiment. The euro continues to draw modest support from relatively stable euro area growth expectations and reduced recession risk, while ECB policy remains restrictive but on hold. By contrast, the Japanese yen remains st…
EURUSD 18/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
EURUSD remains driven by relative monetary policy expectations and near-term macro data surprises rather than longer-cycle structural themes.
On the US side, the Federal Reserve stance remains restrictive but increasingly data-dependent. Recent inflation and labour-market releases have reinforced expec…
GBPJPY 18/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Sterling remains sensitive to UK rate expectations and near-term data flow, while the yen continues to be driven primarily by global risk sentiment and yield differentials rather than domestic Japanese data. Recent sessions have seen GBP supported by comparatively resilient UK growth expectations, while…
GBPUSD 18/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Sterling remains primarily driven by relative monetary policy expectations between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. Recent UK data continues to point towards moderating inflation pressures alongside resilient but slowing growth, reinforcing expectations that the BoE remains near the peak of …
USDCHF 18/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Short-term USDCHF price action continues to be driven by relative monetary policy expectations and risk sentiment. The US Dollar remains broadly supported by still-restrictive Federal Reserve policy guidance, with markets pricing only gradual easing into 2026. Recent US data has remained resilient enoug…
USDJPY 18/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Short-term fundamentals continue to be dominated by the US–Japan monetary policy divergence. US yields remain elevated, supported by resilient US data and a Federal Reserve stance that remains cautious on easing. In contrast, the Bank of Japan continues to signal gradual normalisation, but without urg…
XAUUSD 18/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Gold remains driven by short-term US dollar dynamics, real yield expectations, and residual safe-haven demand. Recent consolidation reflects a pause after strong upside momentum, with markets reassessing near-term Federal Reserve policy expectations and upcoming US macro data. Elevated geopolitical and …
XAGUSD 18/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Silver remains influenced by a combination of USD dynamics, real yield expectations, and broader risk sentiment. Recent sessions reflect a continuation of precious metals strength, underpinned by ongoing market sensitivity to central bank guidance and inflation persistence. While no immedi…
USDCHF 17/12/2025
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Short-term fundamentals remain driven by relative USD and CHF safe-haven demand, expectations around US monetary policy, and broader risk sentiment. The US Dollar is stabilising following recent data that reinforced a “higher for longer” rates narrative, while the Swiss Franc continues to attract de…