secundum Liber Abaci
Praemonitus, Praemunitus
Fibbinarchie
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
USDCHF Analysis updated 08 January 2026
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The USD/CHF exchange rate reflects interactions between the US dollar (USD) and Swiss franc (CHF), influenced by monetary policy expectations, risk sentiment, and macroeconomic data. In recent sessions, USD/CHF has been trading around the 0.798–0.800 region, with markets attentively pricing divergent monetary policy outlooks. TradingView+1
From a fundamental perspective, the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates and potential US economic data surprises remain important drivers for the dollar. At the same time, the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) policy stance and safe‑haven demand for the franc exert supportive influence on the CHF, especially amid risk‑off sentiment globally. The franc’s safe‑haven status tends to strengthen CHF when risk aversion rises. FXStreet+1
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals lean neutral to slightly CHF‑supportive. Broader dollar weakness and safe‑haven demand favour CHF, while mixed US economic data and interest rate expectations cap pronounced moves in either direction.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
As of the latest data, USD/CHF is trading near ~0.7993 CHF, with price action showing range‑bound behaviour around a key psychological level. TradingView Technical sources indicate near‑term consolidation with bullish undertones above key supports, although resistance levels are constraining further upside. ActionForex
Support and Resistance Levels
| Level label | Price level (approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | 0.8123 |
| R1 | 0.7986 – 0.8000 |
| Current Spot Price | ~0.7993 CHF |
| S1 | 0.7913 – 0.7955 |
| S2 | 0.7860 – 0.7905 |
Longer‑term resistance around ~0.8123 reflects corrective breakout targets; R1 near 0.7986–0.8000 aligns with recent pivotal highs.
Support zones S1 are derived from recent consolidation levels and pivot analysis; S2 reflects deeper corrective zones. ActionForex+1
Technical sentiment indicators
-
Technical oscillators imply bullish bias short term while above support, with many moving averages signalling buy on shorter timeframes. Investing.com
-
However, broader weekly range and resistance integrity cap immediate upside.
Technical verdict
Technical analysis suggests a neutral to mildly bullish short‑term sentiment while prices remain above major support zones. Resistance near 0.7986–0.8000 is key; a sustained break above would reinforce upside, while a breakdown below S1/S2 implies deeper CHF dominance.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday / 08 January 2026 — Setup and Trade Ideas
| Scenario | Bias | Entry zone | Invalidation | Initial targets | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dip buy (support) | Bullish | 0.7913–0.7955 | Below S2 | 0.7986 / 0.8000 | Buy near key support |
| Resistance sell | Neutral | 0.7986–0.8020 | Above R2 | 0.7955 / 0.7913 | Fade near resistance |
| Breakout buy | Bullish | Above 0.8000 | Below 0.7970 | 0.8050 / 0.8123 | Confirmed upside continuation |
| Breakdown sell | Bearish | Below 0.7905 | Above 0.7950 | 0.7860 / 0.7828 | Accelerated downside on key support breach |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
-
Base case: Consolidation within 0.7913–0.8000, with mild bias to upside while prices hold above S1 support.
-
Risk management: Place stop losses just beyond key support/resistance levels; avoid large directional exposure ahead of macro data releases.
-
Invalidation: A sustained move above R2 (0.8123) signals bullish continuation; a drop below S2 shifts focus towards deeper corrective levels.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Likelihood | Key Drivers | Expected behaviour |
|---|---|---|---|
| Range consolidation | High | Mixed macro cues and tight trading ranges | 0.7913–0.8000 |
| Bullish breakout | Medium | USD strength, positive US data | Break above 0.8000 → 0.8123 |
| Bearish pullback | Medium | CHF safe‑haven demand, USD weakness | Test S1/S2 lower supports |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Short‑term fundamentals are neutral to slightly CHF‑supportive, with mixed dollar strength and safe‑haven franc demand shaping the backdrop.
Technical verdict: Technically the market exhibits a neutral to mildly bullish tone above key supports, but faces resistance near psychological and structural levels.
Conclusion: The near‑term outlook for USD/CHF is range‑oriented with a mild bullish tilt, contingent on support holding. Breaks of key levels will steer momentum toward either corrective downside or bullish continuation. ActionForex
USDCHF Chart
Economic News relating to USDCHF
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
XAUUSD Analysis updated 08 January 2026
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Gold (XAU/USD) continues to attract strong global attention after a record‑breaking 2025 performance, with spot bullion trading above $4,400 per ounce on 8 January 2026. Precious metal prices started the year higher, buoyed by robust demand from central banks, safe‑haven flows amid geopolitical tensions and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Reuters+1
Market participants remain focused on macro drivers that support gold’s haven status. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and concerns about inflation and global debt dynamics underpin investor allocations to gold relative to risk assets. At the same time, expectations of interest rate adjustments by the US Federal Reserve influence the US dollar’s strength, shaping gold price dynamics. Financial Times
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals are overall supportive of gold prices, with safe‑haven demand, central bank buying and macro uncertainty continuing to provide a constructive backdrop. However, profit‑taking and potential changes in Fed policy could temper upside momentum.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
As of the latest market data, XAU/USD is trading around the mid‑$4,400s, with price action showing strong structural support above recent key levels. Investing.com Short‑term technical indicators generally point to a bullish bias, with moving averages signalling sustained upward pressure, although some momentum indicators suggest caution due to overextended short‑term moves. Investing.com
Support and Resistance Levels
| Level label | Price level (approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | $4,500 |
| R1 | $4,440–$4,470 |
| Current Spot Price | ~$4,450 |
| S1 | $4,380–$4,400 |
| S2 | $4,300–$4,330 |
-
R1–R2: Near‑term resistance cluster around recent all‑time highs and psychological levels.
-
S1–S2: Support zones where previous intraday bounces and trend support have emerged. FXEmpire+1
Technical verdict
Technically the near‑term outlook remains bullish, provided support levels hold. Sustained trade above R1 enhances the upside case toward R2, though failure to clear key resistance and short‑term momentum divergence could invite corrective pullbacks toward S1 and S2.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday / 08 January 2026 – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Scenario | Bias | Entry zone | Invalidation | Initial targets | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Support buy | Bullish | $4,380–$4,400 | Below S2 | $4,440 / $4,500 | Buy on dips to structural support |
| Resistance sell | Neutral | $4,440–$4,480 | Above R2 | $4,400 / $4,380 | Fade near key resistance |
| Breakout buy | Bullish | Above $4,480 | Below $4,440 | $4,500 / $4,550 | Confirmed upside continuation |
| Breakdown sell | Bearish | Below $4,380 | Above $4,400 | $4,330 / $4,300 | Deeper retracement on key support break |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
-
Base case: XAU/USD is expected to consolidate within the $4,380–$4,480 range while maintaining a bullish structural posture.
-
Risk management: Use tight stops around support/resistance pivots; monitor data events (e.g. US labour figures) for directional catalysts.
-
Invalidation: Sustained close above R2 supports extended upside; break below S2 indicates deeper correction pressures.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Likelihood | Key Drivers | Expected behaviour |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | Medium–High | Safe‑haven demand, supportive macro backdrop | Test and potentially clear $4,500 |
| Range consolidation | High | Resistance integrity, profit‑taking | Sideways between $4,380–$4,480 |
| Corrective pullback | Medium | Momentum divergence, dollar strength | Retracement toward $4,330–$4,300 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: The fundamental backdrop for XAU/USD is supportive, driven by safe‑haven appeal, central bank demand and macro uncertainty, though near‑term catalysts could prompt profit‑taking.
Technical verdict: Technical analysis indicates a bullish bias overall, with key support levels likely to underpin further continuation, balanced by resistance barriers and short‑term momentum signals.
Conclusion: The short‑term outlook for gold remains constructive, favouring range‑oriented bullish strategies above key support thresholds, while mindful of corrective risks and resistance challenges. Reuters+1
XAUUSD Chart
Economic News relating to XAUUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURUSD Analysis updated 08 January 2026
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
EUR/USD reflects the relative strength of the euro (EUR) versus the US dollar (USD), influenced by macroeconomic data, monetary policy expectations and broader risk sentiment. Recent developments show the pair trading near ~1.166 USD per EUR. TradingView
Key fundamental drivers include:
-
Policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB), where markets are pricing potential Fed rate cuts, while the ECB is expected to hold rates steady given stable inflation and moderate Eurozone growth. IG+1
-
USD support from recent firm US data has kept downside pressure on EUR/USD, although softer inflation and employment surprises could weaken the dollar. FXStreet
-
Eurozone economic resilience with easing inflation near target and stable domestic activity supports the euro, though growth remains modest. Reuters
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals are balanced with a slight bias towards USD support, driven by stronger US macro data and interest rate expectations, offset by relative Eurozone stability and potential dollar weakening if Fed cuts materialise.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Technical indicators and price action suggest recent EUR/USD weakness around 1.165–1.170, with the pair trading close to pivotal short‑term support levels. TradingView+1 Momentum indicators (e.g. RSI) point towards bearish bias, while moving averages and pivot‑based analysis highlight key levels to monitor. Investing.com
Support and Resistance Levels
| Level label | Price level (approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | 1.1740 |
| R1 | 1.1696–1.1715 |
| Current Spot Price | ~1.1657 USD |
| S1 | 1.1638–1.1645 |
| S2 | 1.1609–1.1626 |
Daily pivot‑based resistance/support reflected in current intra‑day trading ranges. ActionForex
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R1/R2 mark resistance proximal to recent highs and prior pivot points.
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S1/S2 capture near‑term support zones where price has previously reacted. ActionForex
Technical verdict
Technical sentiment is mildly bearish to neutral in the short term, as EUR/USD trades near lower range boundaries. Sustained trading below short‑term resistance and weak momentum indicators reinforce the bearish bias, while supportive levels may offer defensive reaction points.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday / 08 January 2026 – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Scenario | Bias | Entry zone | Invalidation | Initial targets | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on support | Neutral | 1.1638–1.1655 | Below S2 (1.1609) | 1.1696 / 1.1740 | Buy near support holding |
| Sell near resistance | Bearish | 1.1696–1.1720 | Above R2 (1.1740) | 1.1655 / 1.1638 | Fade at resistance |
| Breakout buy | Bullish | Above 1.1740 | Below 1.1700 | 1.1800 / 1.1850 | Confirmed upside continuation |
| Breakdown sell | Bearish | Below 1.1609 | Above 1.1640 | 1.1570 / 1.1500 | Accelerated downside on support breach |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
-
Base case: EUR/USD is expected to remain range‑bound around 1.1638–1.1740, with potential short‑term oscillations shaped by macro releases and USD momentum.
-
Risk management: Place stops beyond key support/resistance levels; manage exposure ahead of US data and policy statements.
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Invalidation: A sustained break above R2 shifts bias to bullish continuation; a decisive drop below S2 would signal a deeper correction.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Likelihood | Key Drivers | Expected behaviour |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral range | High | Mixed macro data, consolidation | Sideways 1.1600–1.1740 |
| Bearish continuation | Medium | USD strength, weak euro data | Test lower support near 1.1500 |
| Bullish rebound | Medium–Low | Fed cut expectations, euro positive surprises | Break above 1.1740 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: EUR/USD fundamentals are balanced with a slight skew towards USD support, reflecting stronger US data and divergent policy expectations, countered by Eurozone stability.
Technical verdict: Short‑term technicals lean mildly bearish to neutral, with the pair consolidating near support levels and capped by resistance zones.
Conclusion: The near‑term outlook for EUR/USD is range‑oriented with mild bearish tilt, highlighting potential oscillation within defined support and resistance bounds. Key macro events and USD momentum will be critical in determining breakout direction. TradingView+1
EURUSD Chart
Economic News relating to EURUSD
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
CHFJPY Analysis updated 08 January 2026
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The CHF/JPY cross is primarily driven by risk sentiment and the relative policy stances of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Both currencies are traditionally viewed as safe havens, but recent price action reflects subtle divergence in yield expectations and capital flows.
The Japanese yen (JPY) remains structurally weak due to the BoJ’s accommodative stance and continued tolerance for low yields, despite ongoing debate around policy normalisation. In contrast, the Swiss franc (CHF) has been supported by relatively tighter financial conditions and Switzerland’s persistent external surplus.
Global risk conditions remain mixed. Periods of equity market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty tend to support CHF more consistently than JPY, given Japan’s ongoing yield suppression. This dynamic has kept CHF/JPY supported at elevated levels.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals mildly favour CHF strength versus JPY, driven by policy divergence and relative capital flow preferences, while both currencies continue to benefit from safe‑haven characteristics.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
CHF/JPY is currently trading near ~171.20, consolidating close to recent multi‑year highs. Momentum remains constructive, though signs of short‑term exhaustion are emerging following the latest advance.
Trend structure remains bullish on daily timeframes, supported by higher highs and higher lows. However, momentum oscillators suggest price is approaching technically stretched territory, increasing the risk of consolidation or shallow pullbacks.
Support and Resistance Levels
| Level label | Price level (approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | 173.00 |
| R1 | 172.00 |
| Current Spot Price | ~171.20 |
| S1 | 170.20 |
| S2 | 169.00 |
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R1–R2: Overhead resistance aligned with psychological and extension levels.
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S1–S2: Near‑term trend support and prior breakout zones.
Technical verdict
Technically, CHF/JPY remains bullish overall, though near‑term indicators point to consolidation risk below resistance. A sustained break above R1 would reinforce trend continuation, while a move below S1 would signal a corrective phase.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday / 08 January 2026 – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Scenario | Bias | Entry zone | Invalidation | Initial targets | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on pullback | Bullish | 170.20–170.50 | Below 169.00 | 172.00 / 173.00 | Trend‑aligned buying near support |
| Sell near resistance | Neutral | 172.00–173.00 | Above 173.50 | 171.20 / 170.20 | Fade overstretched upside |
| Breakout buy | Bullish | Above 173.00 | Below 172.00 | 174.50 | Confirmed upside continuation |
| Breakdown sell | Bearish | Below 169.00 | Above 170.20 | 167.80 / 166.50 | Deeper correction scenario |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
-
Base case: Consolidation within 170.20–173.00, with upside bias while price holds above S1.
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Risk management: Tight stops recommended due to proximity to multi‑year highs and potential volatility spikes.
-
Invalidation: Sustained break below S2 would weaken the bullish structure and favour a broader correction.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Likelihood | Key Drivers | Expected behaviour |
|---|---|---|---|
| Range consolidation | High | Overbought conditions, mixed risk sentiment | Sideways 170.20–173.00 |
| Bullish continuation | Medium | CHF inflows, stable risk conditions | Break above 173.00 |
| Corrective pullback | Medium–Low | Risk‑on shifts, JPY stabilisation | Pullback toward 169.00 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Fundamentals currently favour CHF modestly over JPY, supported by policy divergence and capital flow dynamics.
Technical verdict: The technical structure remains bullish but stretched, with resistance overhead and growing consolidation risk.
Conclusion: CHF/JPY retains a constructive short‑term outlook, favouring buy‑on‑dip strategies within a defined range, while remaining alert to corrective risks near resistance and potential shifts in global risk sentiment.
CHFJPY Chart
Economic News relating to CHFJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
EURJPY Analysis updated 08 January 2026
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
EUR/JPY reflects the intersection of Eurozone economic conditions and Japanese macro dynamics, alongside monetary policy divergence between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Recent data shows the cross trading around ~182.7‑183.0 JPY per EUR today. TradingView+1
Key fundamental influences include:
-
Monetary policy divergence: The ECB is largely expected to hold rates steady amid inflation near target, while the BoJ continues to maintain very accommodative policy with low rates, supporting JPY weakness and uplifting EUR/JPY. DailyForex
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Risk sentiment: EUR/JPY tends to rise in risk‑on environments and weaken if global risk aversion strengthens, as the yen can garner safe‑haven demand. Recent mixed global sentiment has kept the pair in a sideways to bullish range. tradingkey.com
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Macro data trends: Mixed Eurozone data and potential yen support from BoJ normalisation expectations have tempered momentum, contributing to the current consolidation. tradingkey.com
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals lean mildly bullish to neutral for EUR/JPY, underpinned by policy rate spreads and yen weakness, balanced by mixed economic releases and risk sentiment influences.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
EUR/JPY is trading near 183.0 JPY, with recent price action reflecting consolidation after rallies toward multi‑week peaks. Momentum indicators show neutral to mildly bearish tendencies in the very short term, with moving averages mixed and RSI around mid‑range. Investing.com+1
Daily technical reports note that price remains above key support zones, and while corrective downside moves have appeared, the broader uptrend from prior lows is largely intact as long as pivotal supports hold. ActionForex
Support and Resistance Levels
| Level label | Price level (approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | 184.90 |
| R1 | 184.00 |
| Current Spot Price | ~183.00 |
| S1 | 182.00 |
| S2 | 180.07 |
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R1/R2: Overhead resistance near recent multi‑week highs and significant projection levels.
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S1/S2: Near‑term supports aligned with recent corrective lows and Fibonacci retracement clusters. ActionForex
Technical verdict
Technically the pair remains in a range to mildly bullish structure, capped by overhead resistance and showing neutral momentum in the near term. Maintained support above S1 suggests continued recovery potential, while failure of that support would increase short‑term downside risk.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday / 08 January 2026 – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Scenario | Bias | Entry zone | Invalidation | Initial targets | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on support | Bullish | 182.00–182.30 | Below S2 (180.07) | 184.00 / 184.90 | Range support holds |
| Sell near resistance | Neutral | 184.00–184.90 | Above 185.50 | 183.00 / 182.00 | Fade at resistance cluster |
| Breakout buy | Bullish | Above 184.90 | Below 184.00 | 186.31 | Upside continuation confirmed |
| Breakdown sell | Bearish | Below 180.07 | Above 182.00 | 178.00 / 176.50 | Deeper correction on support break |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
-
Base case: Expect range oscillation between 182.00 and 184.90, with mild bullish bias while key supports are intact.
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Risk management: Tight stops near support/resistance limits; monitor ECB and BoJ communications for catalysts.
-
Invalidation: A sustained break above 184.90 favours broader upside; a decisive drop below 180.07 signals deeper corrective pressure.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Likelihood | Key Drivers | Expected behaviour |
|---|---|---|---|
| Range consolidation | High | Mixed data, technical congestion | Sideways ~182–185 |
| Bullish continuation | Medium | Yen weakness, supportive ECB stance | Tests/clears 184.90 |
| Bearish retracement | Medium–Low | Yen strength, global risk aversion | Pullback toward 180.07 and lower supports |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Fundamentals are broadly neutral to mildly bullish for EUR/JPY, with ECB‑BoJ policy divergence and ongoing yen weakness balancing mixed macro data.
Technical verdict: Technicals indicate a range‑bound to mild bullish environment, with key support levels anchoring the structure and resistance near recent highs limiting immediate upside.
Conclusion: The short‑term outlook for EUR/JPY favours range‑oriented price action with mild upside bias, contingent on support levels holding and macro catalysts influencing risk sentiment. Continued monitoring of ECB/BoJ developments and key economic data will be important for direction. ActionForex+1
EURJPY Chart
Economic News relating to EURJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
USDJPY Analysis updated 08 January 2026
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
USD/JPY reflects the relative strength of the US dollar (USD) against the Japanese yen (JPY), driven by interest rate expectations, central bank policy divergence and broader market sentiment. The pair is currently trading around 156.8–157.0 JPY per USD, having recently consolidated near key technical thresholds. TradingView+1
Key fundamental drivers include:
-
Monetary policy divergence: The Federal Reserve has maintained relatively high policy rates amid mixed US macro data, supporting USD yields. Conversely, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains cautious in its tightening trajectory despite recent hikes, keeping Japanese yields subdued relative to the US. Investing.com+1
-
Risk sentiment: JPY often acts as a safe‑haven, strengthening in risk aversion. Recent mixed global data has slightly boosted JPY demand, tempering USD/JPY advances. FXStreet
-
Economic releases: Mixed US employment and activity indicators have paused bullish momentum in USD/JPY, while expectations around BoJ tightening continue to influence JPY strength. FXStreet
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals are mildly bullish to neutral for USD/JPY, supported by US‑Japan rate differentials but balanced by softer US macro data and intermittent yen strength from risk shifts.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
USD/JPY remains in a medium‑term uptrend, although recent sessions have shown consolidation and pullback from recent highs. Price retains structural support above key moving averages and trendlines, indicating the broader bullish bias remains intact, while near‑term momentum indicators have moderated. Investing.com+1
Support and Resistance Levels
| Level label | Price level (approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | 158.85 |
| R1 | 157.50 |
| Current Spot Price | ~156.80 |
| S1 | 155.60 |
| S2 | 154.33 |
-
R1/R2: Overhead resistances near recent technical peaks and psychological barriers.
-
S1/S2: Support zones defined by recent consolidation lows and key pivot structures. ActionForex+1
Technical verdict
Technically, USD/JPY remains in a constructive uptrend but is currently consolidating. A break above R1/R2 would signal renewed upside momentum, while a failure to hold S1 could indicate short‑term corrective risk.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday / 08 January 2026 – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Scenario | Bias | Entry zone | Invalidation | Initial targets | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on pullback | Bullish | 155.60–156.00 | Below S2 (154.33) | 157.50 / 158.85 | Buy near key support |
| Sell near resistance | Neutral | 157.50–158.85 | Above 159.50 | 156.80 / 155.60 | Fade at resistance |
| Breakout buy | Bullish | Above 158.85 | Below 157.50 | 160.00 | Upside continuation confirmation |
| Breakdown sell | Bearish | Below 154.33 | Above 155.60 | 152.50 / 150.00 | Deeper correction if support fails |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
-
Base case: Expect consolidation within 155.60–158.85 with a mild bullish skew, as fundamental biases support the USD but technical exhaustion tempers near‑term moves.
-
Risk management: Use tight stops around key pivots; watch US data releases and BoJ communications for catalysts.
-
Invalidation: A sustained break above R2 strengthens the bullish case, while a fall below S2 would signal deeper downside.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Likelihood | Key Drivers | Expected behaviour |
|---|---|---|---|
| Range consolidation | High | Mixed data, technical congestion | Sideways between S1 and R2 |
| Bullish breakout | Medium | USD strength, positive US data | Challenges 160.00+ |
| Corrective pullback | Medium–Low | Strong yen flows, BoJ hawkish surprises | Tests S2 and lower |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Fundamentals support mild USD strength against JPY, driven by rate differentials and yield support, balanced by mixed macro data and periodic yen safe‑haven bids.
Technical verdict: The technical picture remains bullish overall, though the pair is consolidating near current levels with key support and resistance defining the near‑term range.
Conclusion: USD/JPY’s short‑term outlook is constructive with a range‑oriented bias, favouring buy‑on‑dip strategies while paying close attention to breaks of defined support or resistance levels for directional conviction. Investing.com+1
USDJPY Chart
Economic News relating to USDJPY
USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD
GBPUSD Analysis updated 08 January 2026
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The GBP/USD pair continues to navigate a mixed macroeconomic environment as Sterling confronts domestic headwinds while the U.S. dollar retains underlying strength amid varied economic signals. The current spot rate is trading around ~1.34–1.35 USD per GBP. TradingView+1
Key fundamental drivers include:
-
Monetary policy divergence: The Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to hold or potentially cut interest rates sooner than the market anticipated, driven by softer UK data and lower inflationary pressures. This could weigh on GBP relative to USD. FXStreet+1
-
U.S. economic data and Fed expectations: Mixed U.S. macro data has supported the U.S. dollar, keeping the dollar bias moderately firm. Pre‑eminent economic releases like the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report remain focal points for direction. Reuters
-
Risk sentiment: Emerging risk aversion, shown in equity market volatility and weaker commodity prices, has bolstered USD demand and exerted additional pressure on GBP/USD. Reuters
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals lean slightly bearish to neutral for GBP/USD, reflecting BoE pause/cut expectations, relative U.S. resilience, and broader risk aversion supporting the greenback.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Technically, GBP/USD has demonstrated neutral to modestly bearish behaviour around key zones near 1.344–1.350, with recent price action showing consolidation and minor declines. A daily close below the 20‑day SMA (~1.3442) could increase pressure toward deeper support. TMGM+1
Short‑term technical indicators and pivot analyses suggest the pair remains within a defined price range, with moving averages offering dynamic support/resistance cues. The medium‑term structure retains potential for rebounds if key supports hold, though upside faces stiff resistance. Investing.com
Support and Resistance Levels
| Level label | Price level (approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | 1.3550 |
| R1 | 1.3500 |
| Current Spot Price | ~1.3430 |
| S1 | 1.3400 |
| S2 | 1.3369 |
-
R1/R2: Resistances near recent intraday highs and psychological round numbers where price has stalled.
-
S1/S2: Support levels defined by recent intraday pivots, simple moving averages and technical floors. TMGM+1
Technical verdict
Technically, GBP/USD is in a neutral to mildly bearish phase, contained within its current range. Downside pressure appears present below 1.344, while reclaiming 1.350–1.355 could reinstate bullish momentum.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday / 08 January 2026 – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Scenario | Bias | Entry zone | Invalidation | Initial targets | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on support | Neutral‑Bullish | 1.3400–1.3420 | Below 1.3360 | 1.3500 / 1.3550 | Support zone holds, corrective dip buy |
| Sell near resistance | Neutral‑Bearish | 1.3500–1.3550 | Above 1.3570 | 1.3440 / 1.3400 | Fade at structural resistance |
| Breakout buy | Bullish | Above 1.3550 | Below 1.3500 | 1.3600 | Confirmed breakout above resistance |
| Breakdown sell | Bearish | Below 1.3369 | Above 1.3400 | 1.3300 / 1.3250 | Extended correction on key support break |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
-
Base case: Expect range trading between 1.3400 and 1.3550, with a mild bearish tilt unless key levels above 1.3550 are convincingly taken out.
-
Risk management: Place protective stops near dynamic SMA levels; monitor U.S. jobs data and UK inflation/GDP for catalysts.
-
Invalidation: A sustained move above 1.3550 shifts bias bullish; a close below S2 (1.3369) increases likelihood of deeper pullbacks.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Likelihood | Key Drivers | Expected behaviour |
|---|---|---|---|
| Range consolidation | High | Mixed macro data, technical congestion | 1.3400–1.3550 sideways trading |
| Bearish continuation | Medium | Strong USD, BoE cuts priced in | Break below 1.3369 into lower supports |
| Bullish breakout | Medium‑Low | USD weakness, BoE hawkish surprises | Clear break above 1.3550 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Short‑term fundamentals are mildly bearish to neutral for GBP/USD, driven by relative monetary policy expectations and USD strength.
Technical verdict: Technicals suggest a neutral to mildly bearish range, with key support and resistance levels defining near‑term movement and the potential for either a break or continued range play.
Conclusion: The short‑term outlook for GBP/USD favours range‑bound behaviour with a bearish skew, monitoring the 1.3400 support zone and upside resistance around 1.3500–1.3550 for direction confirmation. Continuation beyond those levels will shape the next directional leg. TMGM
GBPUSD Chart
Economic News relating to GBPUSD
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EURGBP Analysis updated 08 January 2026
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
EUR/GBP reflects the relative economic performance and monetary policy divergence between the Eurozone and the United Kingdom. Recently, the pair is trading near 0.867–0.871 GBP per EUR. TradingView
Key fundamental influences include:
-
Monetary policy divergence: The Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to be more dovish with future rate cuts priced by markets, while the European Central Bank (ECB) appears relatively more inclined to hold policy steady. This could underpin pressure on GBP relative to EUR in the short term. ThinkMarkets
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Economic data: Mixed macroeconomic releases from the euro area and modest resilience in some UK data have produced a cautious outlook, with neither currency showing overwhelming strength. Soft inflation in the euro area has been offset by broader stability in some UK indicators. FXStreet
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Risk sentiment: Global risk appetite influences EUR/GBP movements, but current trading lacks a clear directional momentum, resulting in range behaviour. FXStreet
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for EUR/GBP are neutral to mildly bearish for the euro, influenced by expected BoE rate cuts relative to ECB policy and mixed macroeconomic signals from both regions.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current price action shows EUR/GBP has recently traded slightly below near‑term resistance levels and has exhibited a modest downward bias from recent higher levels. Technical studies point to potential continuation of the recent corrective decline unless important support holds. ActionForex+1
Technical indicators such as moving averages and other momentum tools broadly indicate bearish to neutral signals, especially on short‑term and daily charts. Overall, the technical setup favours continued range trade with a mildly bearish tilt. Investing.com
Support and Resistance Levels
| Level label | Price level (approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | 0.8720 |
| R1 | 0.8700 |
| Current Spot Price | ~0.8675 |
| S1 | 0.8650 |
| S2 | 0.8618 |
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R1/R2: Represent recent resistance where short‑term rallies have stalled.
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S1/S2: Support zones near recent lows and Fibonacci retracement clusters. ActionForex
Technical verdict
Technically, EUR/GBP is in a range to mildly bearish phase, with downside pressure prevailing below resistance clusters. A break below S1/S2 would expand bearish implications, while a sustained break above R1/R2 is needed to shift sentiment bullish.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday / 08 January 2026 – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Scenario | Bias | Entry zone | Invalidation | Initial targets | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on support | Neutral‑Bullish | 0.8650–0.8670 | Below 0.8618 | 0.8700 / 0.8720 | Support zone holding bids |
| Sell near resistance | Neutral‑Bearish | 0.8700–0.8720 | Above 0.8730 | 0.8675 / 0.8650 | Fade at resistance clusters |
| Breakout buy | Bullish | Above 0.8720 | Below 0.8700 | 0.8750 | Upside continuation if resistance clears |
| Breakdown sell | Bearish | Below 0.8618 | Above 0.8650 | 0.8590 / 0.8550 | Extended correction on support break |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
-
Base case: Expect range trade between 0.8650 and 0.8720, with a slight bearish bias under current market conditions.
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Risk management: Use tight stops around key pivots; monitor UK and eurozone data for skewing sentiment.
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Invalidation: A sustained move above R2 (0.8720) shifts bias toward recovery, whereas a break below S2 (0.8618) supports deeper declines.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Likelihood | Key Drivers | Expected behaviour |
|---|---|---|---|
| Range continuation | High | Mixed macro data, technical congestion | Sideways 0.8650–0.8720 |
| Bearish continuation | Medium | UK macro resilience cooling / euro weakness | Break below 0.8618 into lower supports |
| Bullish breakout | Medium‑Low | Improved euro data, BoE pause seen as dovish | Break above 0.8720 leading to 0.8750+ |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Fundamentals are broadly neutral to mildly bearish for EUR/GBP, with expected BoE rate cuts, ECB relative policy stability, and mixed regional economic data influencing the cross.
Technical verdict: The technical picture suggests range‑bound to mildly bearish conditions, with downside pressure below resistance and key supports defining risk contours.
Conclusion: The short‑term outlook for EUR/GBP is neutral to mildly bearish, prioritising range trade and downside scenarios unless a decisive technical break occurs above resistance zones. Investing.com+1
EURGBP Chart
Economic News relating to EURGBP
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GBPJPY Analysis updated 08 January 2026
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
GBP/JPY reflects the interplay between UK economic conditions and Japanese macro dynamics, with additional influence from global risk sentiment. The pair is trading around ≈210.7–211.0 JPY per GBP. TradingView
Key fundamental drivers include:
-
Monetary policy divergence: The Bank of England (BoE) has been relatively cautious but less dovish than the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which maintains a more accommodative stance. The resultant interest‑rate differential has historically supported GBP/JPY, though the gap has moderated as markets adjust expectations. FX Leaders
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Japanese Yen demand: Periods of risk aversion have increased JPY safe‑haven flows, which can exert downward pressure on GBP/JPY despite broader bullish structures. VT Markets
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UK and Japan economic data: Ongoing releases such as UK inflation and Japan manufacturing data influence short‑term GBP/JPY direction; stronger UK data tends to support GBP while stronger Japanese data can lift the JPY. Capitalcore LLC
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Risk sentiment and yields: Global risk appetite and relative bond yields influence cross‑currency positioning given the pair’s sensitivity to both carry and sentiment. FX Leaders
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Short‑term fundamentals for GBP/JPY are neutral to mildly bullish, supported by relative rate dynamics and yield differentials, though elevated demand for safe‑haven JPY and mixed data can temper gains.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Technically, GBP/JPY has recently shown a neutral intraday bias with a modest pullback below key resistance near 211.0, while broader medium‑term uptrend signals remain intact. ActionForex
Short‑term technical action suggests consolidation under psychological and technical ceilings, with possible corrective pressure if certain supports break. Indicators on TradingView pivot analyses also point to critical near‑term zones. TradingView
Support and Resistance Levels
| Level label | Price level (approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | 212.70 |
| R1 | 211.50 |
| Current Spot Price | ~210.70 |
| S1 | 210.05 |
| S2 | 208.30 |
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R1/R2: Derived from recent pivot analyses and resistance clusters; holding above these signals bullish structure. Barchart.com
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S1/S2: Near‑term supports where buyers may re‑enter; breaks below could indicate deeper correction. TradingView
Technical verdict
Technically, GBP/JPY is in a consolidation within a broader uptrend, with immediate resistance capping upside and weaker support levels defining near‑term corrective risk. Sustained breaks above resistance could resume bullish momentum, whereas support breakdowns would increase short‑term bearish pressures.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday / 08 January 2026 – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Scenario | Bias | Entry zone | Invalidation | Initial targets | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on support | Neutral‑Bullish | 210.05–210.40 | Below 208.30 | 211.50 / 212.70 | Support zone holds, corrective dip buy |
| Sell near resistance | Neutral‑Bearish | 211.50–212.70 | Above 213.20 | 210.70 / 210.05 | Fade at resistance |
| Breakout buy | Bullish | Above 212.70 | Below 211.50 | 214.50 | Confirmed breakout |
| Breakdown sell | Bearish | Below 208.30 | Above 210.05 | 206.00 / 204.00 | Support break extends correction |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
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Base case: Expect range trading from ~208.30 to ~212.70 with a mild bullish bias retained.
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Risk management: Place stops near pivot supports/resistances; monitor UK and Japan data releases.
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Invalidation: A sustained move above R2 (212.70) would signal further upside; a break below S2 (208.30) increases downside risk.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Likelihood | Key Drivers | Expected behaviour |
|---|---|---|---|
| Range consolidation | High | Mixed data, technical congestion | 208.30–212.70 sideways trading |
| Bullish continuation | Medium | GBP strength, weak JPY via sentiment | Break above 212.70 into 214.50+ |
| Corrective pullback | Medium‑Low | JPY safe‑haven demand, weak risk appetite | Test 208.30 and lower supports |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Fundamentals are neutral to mildly bullish for GBP/JPY, reflecting interest‑rate differentials and carry advantages, tempered by safe‑haven demand for JPY and mixed macro data.
Technical verdict: Technical analysis suggests the pair is consolidating within an uptrend, with key resistance around 211.50–212.70 limiting immediate upside and defined support levels anchoring downside.
Conclusion: The short‑term outlook for GBP/JPY favours range‑bound activity with a mild bullish bias, contingent on maintaining support zones and overcoming resistance hurdles. Breaks of assigned levels will provide clearer directional cues. TradingView
GBPJPY Chart
Economic News relating to GBPJPY
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XAGUSD Analysis updated 08 January 2026
Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
The silver market (XAG/USD) remains highly sensitive to macro drivers, including U.S. monetary policy expectations, safe‑haven demand from geopolitical events, and supply/demand dynamics in both investment and industrial use.
Recent geopolitical developments — particularly instability stemming from the Venezuela situation — have supported renewed safe‑haven flows into silver, pushing prices above $80 per ounce recently and underpinning bullish sentiment. Investopedia
However, structural and market pressures are also evident. Goldman Sachs highlights ongoing extreme volatility in silver markets due to physical stock imbalances and regional inventory shifts, creating potential for sharp price swings. Business Insider
Other fundamental factors include expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, which generally support non‑yielding assets like precious metals, and persistent physical supply constraints that underpin long‑term demand. Reuters
Fundamental / Economic verdict
Fundamentals remain mixed but with a bullish bias in the short term. Safe‑haven demand and expectations of looser monetary policy support XAG/USD, while structural supply constraints add upward pressure. At the same time, macroeconomic and commodity index rebalancing risks could inject volatility and temper gains.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
Current spot silver price is trading around ~$76–$78 per ounce. Investing.com Recent price action shows a cooling from late‑December highs after an extended rally, with sliding momentum indicators hinting at a correction or deeper pullback. TMGM
The 50‑period simple moving average near ~$75.8 has acted as dynamic support, but breaking below this level could open the door to further downside. TMGM
Short‑term technical studies also highlight key retracement and resistance zones around $77.05 to $78.70 that will help determine whether bulls can sustain a recovery toward recent peaks or if corrective forces dominate. FXEmpire
Support and Resistance Levels
| Level label | Price level (approx) |
|---|---|
| R2 | 81.44 |
| R1 | 78.70 |
| Current Spot Price | ~77.00 |
| S1 | 75.79 |
| S2 | 70.07 |
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R1/R2: Refer to near‑term and short‑term upside barriers. Sustained breaks above these could resume bullish momentum. FXEmpire
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S1/S2: Key technical supports where buyers may re‑emerge; a decline below S2 would imply deeper corrective risk. TMGM
Technical verdict
Technically, XAG/USD is in a consolidation phase with a risk‑off tilt. Near‑term price action oscillates between support near the 50‑period SMA and resistance at key retracement levels. Breaks below technical support could signal deeper correction, while reclaiming resistance would reinstate broader bullish structures.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday / 08 January 2026 – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Scenario | Bias | Entry zone | Invalidation | Initial targets | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on support | Neutral‑Bullish | 75.70–76.00 | Below 75.00 | 78.70 / 81.44 | Support near 50‑period SMA holds |
| Sell near resistance | Neutral‑Bearish | 78.70–81.44 | Above 82.00 | 77.05 / 75.79 | Resistance cluster fade |
| Breakout buy | Bullish | Above 81.44 | Below 78.70 | 84.00+ | Upside continuation confirmed |
| Breakdown sell | Bearish | Below 75.79 | Above 77.00 | 70.07 / 66.00 | Deeper correction |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
-
Base case: Expect range trading between ~75.79 and ~78.70, with a mild neutral‑to‑bullish bias if support holds.
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Risk management: Use short stops under technical supports and watch risk events such as the U.S. NFP data and commodity index rebalancing windows.
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Invalidation: A sustained move above R2 (81.44) could shift bias bullish; a close below S2 (70.07) would suggest broader correction.
7 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Likelihood | Key Drivers | Expected behaviour |
|---|---|---|---|
| Range consolidation | High | Mixed momentum, technical congestion | 75.79–78.70 |
| Bullish continuation | Medium | Geopolitical tension, safe‑haven demand | Break above 78.70 to 81.44+ |
| Corrective pullback | Medium | Commodity index selling pressure, macro data | Tests 75.79 and deeper to 70.07 |
Summary
Fundamental / Economic verdict: Fundamentals are mixed with a short‑term bullish tilt, driven by safe‑haven flows, supply constraints, and expectations of looser U.S. monetary policy. Structural volatility risks and macro pressures temper this view.
Technical verdict: The technical picture for XAG/USD is consolidative with downside risk, bounded by support near the 50‑period SMA and retracement resistance; momentum indicators hint at cooling after recent peaks.
Conclusion: The short‑term outlook for XAG/USD is range‑oriented with a cautiously bullish bias, provided key support levels hold. Breaks above resistance clusters could resume upside momentum, while failure of support would signal deeper corrective risks.
XAGUSD Chart
Economic News relating to XAGUSD
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