EURJPY – 30/11/2025

Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short-term)

• The general backdrop for EUR/JPY remains somewhat supportive: the euro (EUR) is benefitting from relatively stabilizing macroeconomic conditions and some pickup in Euro-area inflation/price stability narratives, which helps underpin demand for EUR. FastBull+2LiteFinance+2

• On the Japanese side, the yen (JPY) continues to suffer under pressure — weak domestic data, policy uncertainty by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), and carry-trade unwinds tend to weigh on JPY. That makes the cross favorable for EUR vs JPY under current conditions. FastBull+2Markets+2

• Geopolitical and risk-sentiment factors are also relevant: recent optimism (e.g. peace-deal hopes) has boosted risk appetite, which tends to weaken safe-haven currencies like JPY and support risk-linked pairs such as EUR/JPY. FXStreet+1

• That said: if risk sentiment turns negative, or if there is surprise strength in Japanese economic data or hawkish BoJ signals, JPY could regain support — which would pressure EUR/JPY. Given global macro uncertainties, this remains a risk.

→ Conclusion (fundamental): The immediate fundamental/economic setup modestly favours EUR/JPY — EUR strength + JPY pressure + favourable risk sentiment — giving the cross a bullish tilt in the near term. But this is contingent on risk environment remaining stable or positive; a shift could quickly reverse things.

Technical & Market-Sentiment Picture (short-term)

• On daily charts and using moving-average frameworks, EUR/JPY shows a bullish bias: many of the standard moving averages (from short to long-term) are aligned to “Buy.” Investing.com Nigeria+2Investing.com+2

• Recent price action sees EUR/JPY holding above its short-term support levels: the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits ~ ¥180.17, and the 50-day EMA around ¥177.20. Price sticking above these suggests short-term upward/sideways bias. FXStreet+2Action Forex+2

• Momentum indicators are also mildly favourable: RSI (on daily) is above mid-line, giving room for further upside before overbought constraints. FXStreet+1

• That said, the pair is still trading below its previous high (~ ¥181.98). According to a recent technical outlook: the intraday bias is described as “neutral” for now, with consolidation possible — i.e. not rushing to assume new breakout. Action Forex+1

• Support zones to watch: around ¥180.20 (9-day EMA / short-term support). Below that, a stronger support around ¥178.80 — which if broken, could open deeper correction toward the 50-day EMA zone. Action Forex+2barchart.com+2

• Upside resistance: near ¥181.98 – ~¥182.00, then further up toward ~¥182.50–¥183.00 if bullish momentum resumes. Action Forex+2Economies.com+2

→ Conclusion (technical): EUR/JPY remains technically biased to the upside / neutral-bullish, with price action supportive — but the pair is in consolidation under recent highs. A breakout could push higher, but risk of sideways or modest pullback remains if support zones falter or momentum fades.

Short-Term / Intraday Outlook for Monday 1 Dec 2025 — Trading Suggestions

Assuming you trade during Asian → European → early US sessions (i.e. typical liquidity windows), here are some plausible setups and strategies:

Key levels to monitor:

• Support: ~ ¥180.20 (short-term), then ~ ¥178.80 (stronger support) Action Forex+2FXStreet+2

• Resistance / breakout trigger: ~ ¥181.98–182.00, then ~ ¥183.00+ Action Forex+1

Important risk-factors / catalysts to watch (Monday / early week):

• Risk-sentiment shifts (global equities, geopolitical headlines) — since JPY is often viewed as a safe-haven, risk-off could strengthen JPY and press EUR/JPY lower. blueberrymarkets.com+2Pepperstone+2

• Any fresh macro data from Eurozone (inflation, PMI, economic confidence) or Japan — could shift expectations about EUR vs JPY interest-rate or policy outlook. Capital.com+2FastBull+2

• Intraday liquidity and volatility — pair tends to move more during European–Tokyo session overlap; outside those hours, volatility may be muted. Pepperstone+1

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