Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Short-term EURUSD price action continues to be driven by relative monetary policy expectations and near-term macro data momentum. The US dollar remains sensitive to shifts in Federal Reserve rate-cut timing, with markets increasingly focused on incoming inflation and labour market data for confirmation. Any softening in US data continues to undermine USD support on a short-term basis.
On the euro side, the ECB stance remains comparatively cautious. While inflation has moderated, policymakers remain reluctant to signal aggressive easing, helping to stabilise the euro. Growth concerns in the euro area persist, but they are currently secondary to rate differential dynamics.
Risk sentiment remains constructive, limiting safe-haven demand for the USD and favouring mild EUR resilience in the immediate term.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
The short-term fundamental backdrop marginally favours EURUSD strength, driven by softer USD yield expectations and stable ECB messaging. Upside momentum is supported while US data fails to re-accelerate meaningfully.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
EURUSD is trading at 1.1755, holding above key short-term moving averages and maintaining a constructive bullish structure.
| Level Type | Price Area |
|---|---|
| Resistance | 1.1790 / 1.1845 |
| Interim Resistance | 1.1775 |
| Support | 1.1710 / 1.1680 |
| Deeper Support | 1.1625 |
Momentum indicators on the intraday and daily timeframes remain positive but not overextended. Price is consolidating above former resistance near 1.1710, now acting as initial support. Market sentiment remains cautiously bullish, with pullbacks attracting demand rather than aggressive selling.
Technical verdict
The technical structure remains bullish while price holds above 1.1710. A sustained break above 1.1790 would expose further upside, while failure below 1.1680 would neutralise the immediate bullish bias.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday / Wednesday, December 17, 2025 – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Bias | Entry Zone | Target Zone | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy pullbacks | 1.1725 – 1.1710 | 1.1775 / 1.1790 | Below 1.1680 |
| Momentum buy | Above 1.1790 | 1.1840 – 1.1860 | Back below 1.1755 |
| Countertrend sell | 1.1840 – 1.1860 | 1.1790 | Above 1.1885 |
Intraday focus remains on buying dips into support while price structure remains intact.
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
The base case favours continued consolidation with an upward bias. Risk should be managed tightly given proximity to resistance and the potential for data-driven volatility. Long exposure remains preferred while above 1.1710.
3 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | Break and hold above 1.1790, extension towards 1.1850+ | Medium |
| Range consolidation | Sideways trade between 1.1680 – 1.1790 | Medium–High |
| Bearish correction | Breakdown below 1.1680, move towards 1.1625 | Low |
Summary
Fundamentally, EURUSD is supported by softer US dollar dynamics and stable ECB expectations. Technically, the pair remains in a bullish short-term structure above key support at 1.1710. Strategy favours buying pullbacks and upside continuation scenarios, with risk defined below recent structural support. The balance of probabilities supports further upside over the next three days, provided current technical levels remain intact.
EURUSD Chart
Economic News relating to EURUSD
