Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (near-term)
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The underlying strength of the U.S. dollar remains a powerful headwind for EUR/USD — strong U.S. economic data, inflation and rate expectations (versus the eurozone) continue to push USD support, which undermines EUR/USD in the short term. DailyForex+2FXStreet+2
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That said, there is some modest support for the eurocoming from signs that euro-area economic growth may be stabilizing: recent data suggests moderate growth in parts of the eurozone, and some medium-term forecasts expect a gradual euro appreciation if U.S. dollar strength fades. MUFG Research+2Just2Trade+2
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Also, several analysts expect the U.S. dollar to soften later this year if rate differentials narrow — this could translate into upward pressure on EUR/USD. LiteFinance+2Capital.com+2
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However, underlying inflation differentials still favor the USD, and short-term monetary-policy expectations remain tilted toward USD strength unless data surprises on the downside. Investing.com+2BBVA Research+2
→ Conclusion (fundamental): The near-term environment remains USD-friendly overall, which exerts pressure on EUR/USD. But there are signs the euro has some structural or medium-term strength — meaning EUR/USD could bounce higher if U.S. data disappoints or dollar demand weakens.
Technical / Market-Sentiment Picture (as of end-November, relevant for short-term)
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On the recent daily/short-term chart, EUR/USD recently broke above a minor resistance area near ~ 1.1585 and saw a short-term rebound. FXStreet+2DailyForex+2
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However, a major resistance zone lies near ~ 1.1607 — that level will likely test whether momentum continues upward or the pair stalls. FXStreet
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If the price fails to hold the breakout — especially if the support around ~ 1.1560–1.1580 zone doesn’t hold — a drop toward the ~ 1.1495–1.1500 area is plausible. FXStreet+2DailyForex+2
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Overall, short-term momentum appears cautious: while there’s some upward tilt, many technicals and market-sentiment indicators still point to a broadly range-bound / slightly bearish to neutral environment — rather than a strong bullish breakout. DailyForex+2FXStreet+2
→ Conclusion (technical): EUR/USD is in a fragile, somewhat balanced state: there is potential for a rebound but strong resistance overhead, mixed momentum, and no clear directional conviction. A narrow trading range in the near-term seems plausible.
[100% Retracement]
[50% Retracement]
Short-Term / Intraday Trading Outlook for Monday 1 Dec 2025
Given the mixed backdrop, here are a few scenarios + sample intraday / early-week strategies that might play out. (Assume you trade during European + U.S. session overlap for liquidity and follow scheduled U.S. data releases.)
| Scenario | Trading idea / Strategy |
|---|---|
| Range / consolidation around current levels (no major macro surprise) | – If price remains between ~1.1550–1.1600, consider range-play: buy near lower bound (~1.1550–1.1570), target ~1.1595–1.1610; or short near upper bound (~1.1600–1.1620) with target ~1.1560–1.1530. – Use tight stop-losses (e.g. ±20-25 pips) given potential for volatility if triggers emerge. |
| Breakout to upside (e.g. USD-weakness, weak U.S. data, risk-on sentiment) | – On a clean breakout above ~1.1610–1.1620, consider long with target ~1.1650–1.1680. – Use stop-loss below breakout level, e.g. ~1.1585. |
| Downside move / USD strength / risk-off or strong U.S. data | – If price drops below ~1.1530–1.1500, go short, targeting ~1.1470–1.1440 (or lower if momentum accelerates). – Alternatively, sell-stop below support (~1.1520), stop-loss above last consolidation high (~1.1575). |
| Choppy / low-vol environment | – Avoid overtrading; with mixed signals and uncertain catalysts, volatility may compress. Consider staying on the sidelines or using very conservative position sizing. |
Key factors / triggers to watch (Monday / early week)
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Any U.S. macroeconomic data or surprises: weak U.S. inflation or employment data → could undermine USD and boost EUR/USD; strong data → opposite.
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Market sentiment / risk environment: global risk-on could support Euro / weaken USD; risk-off or safe-haven demand tends to support USD, pressuring the pair.
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Price action around key technical zones: ~1.1550–1.1585 support zone, and ~1.1607–1.1620 resistance.
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Liquidity conditions: best opportunities likely during European–U.S. session overlap; outside those hours, choppiness/high spreads risk.
