secundum Liber Abaci
Praemonitus, Praemunitus
Fibbinarchie

USDCHF | XAUUSD | EURUSD | CHFJPY | EURJPY | USDJPY | GBPUSD | EURGBP | GBPJPY | XAGUSD

---

USDCHF Analysis for Sunday, 04 January 2026

Current spot price: ~0.7923 CHF per USD (as of latest live data) TradingView

---

Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)

USDCHF reflects the relative strength of the US dollar (USD) versus the Swiss franc (CHF). The franc is considered a safe‑haven currency, while the dollar’s performance is closely tied to US monetary policy, macroeconomic data, and risk sentiment.

Recent market commentary indicates that the US dollar has shown dovish tendencies tied to expectations around the Federal Reserve outlook, keeping pressure on USDCHF at current levels. FXStreet The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has kept its policy rate at 0.00 %, emphasising readiness to intervene in foreign exchange markets if needed, and updated its inflation forecasts modestly lower, underscoring a subdued inflation environment. TradingView

Broad forecasts point to continued corrective price behaviour for USDCHF with bearish sentiment predominating while key resistance levels hold and sellers remain in control. FOREX24.PRO

Fundamental / Economic verdict

Short‑term fundamentals are neutral to mildly bearish for USDCHF. The dollar’s strength is constrained by dovish Fed tones, while the Swiss franc benefits from safe‑haven status and SNB policy consistency. Macro data and risk sentiment will continue to influence the pair’s near‑term trajectory.

---

Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)

Technical analysis suggests that USDCHF is trading within a consolidation/correction pattern, with both support and resistance zones exerting influence. Current technical signals, including moving average analysis, pivot levels and broader chart patterns, point to neutral to bearish momentum unless key resistance is broken. Investing.com+1

Support / Resistance Levels (immediate)

Market sentiment:

• Technical indicators such as pivot analysis and RSI suggest neutral to bearish near‑term sentiment, with consolidative patterns dominating as price remains below key resistance. FXStreet

• Broader chart studies point to a corrective phase from recent highs, where downside targets are tested unless buyers clear resistance. ActionForex

Technical verdict

Short‑term technicals for USDCHF are neutral to mildly bearish. Price is range‑bound below resistance levels with support levels ahead of deeper down‑trend resumption if breaks occur. Breakouts above resistance thresholds could temporarily shift bias, but overall trend pressure persists until pivots are decisively cleared.

---

Strategy (short term)

Intraday / Sunday, 04 January 2026 – Setup and Trade Ideas

Execution note: Given consolidation patterns, use tight trade confirmations (candlestick patterns, volume) and manage risk via stops beyond key invalidation levels.

Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook

Base case: USDCHF is likely to remain in a consolidation/correction phase between key support (~0.7835) and resistance (~0.7986). Traders should use range boundaries for positioning with controlled risk, as breakout or breakdown outside these zones will signal directional commitment.

7 Day Outlook Scenarios

---

Summary

Fundamental / Economic verdict: USDCHF fundamentals are neutral to mildly bearish, constrained by dovish dollar sentiment and supported by safe‑haven franc dynamics. Macro data and policy signals remain pivotal.

Technical verdict: Technical analysis reveals a range‑bound, consolidative structure with mild bearish bias in the short term. Key resistance near 0.7950–0.7986 caps upside, while support near 0.7870–0.7835 needs monitoring for downside risk.

Conclusion: Over the short term, USDCHF is expected to trade within a defined range, with potential for either a corrective upswing if resistance breaks or a continuation of downward pressure if support levels give way. Traders should follow macro developments and monitor defined technical levels for directional cues.

---

USDCHF Chart

---

Economic News relating to USDCHF

[Top]

---

XAUUSD Analysis for Sunday, 04 January 2026

Current spot price: ~4,330 USD per ounce (latest available live data) Investing.com

---

Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)

Gold (XAUUSD) remains heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions, interest rate expectations, inflation dynamics, safe‑haven demand and the strength of the US dollar. Gold’s status as a non‑yielding asset means it typically performs well when real yields fall or when inflation concerns intensify. NordFX

Recent data show that gold surged strongly through 2025, with sharp price increases supported by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical uncertainty and central bank buying. Reuters reports that precious metals posted unprecedented annual gains in 2025, driven by softer monetary policy and safe‑haven flows. Reuters

Geopolitical tensions and concerns around inflation have bolstered gold’s appeal, whilst central bank purchases and ETF inflows remain supportive. However, profit‑taking following strong rallies has also manifested as short‑term selling pressure, leading to consolidation around existing levels. Reuters+1

Fundamental / Economic verdict

In the short term, fundamentals for XAUUSD are neutral to mildly constructive. Support from safe‑haven demand, Fed easing expectations and central bank accumulation coexist with profit‑taking, a strong US dollar on certain sessions, and mixed economic data. The interplay between inflation data, Federal Reserve messaging and risk sentiment will remain key.

---

Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)

Technical indicators highlight mixed momentum for XAUUSD. Broader trend analysis shows a strong long‑term uptrend, but recent short‑term patterns indicate consolidation and sideways movement as price tests support and resistance zones. Some technical tools show short‑term sell signals despite the broader bull trend. Investing.com

Support / Resistance Levels (immediate)

Market sentiment:

• Price has recently oscillated within a range between key support and resistance, indicating consolidation after strong trend moves. Investing.com

• Technical indicators on shorter timeframes suggest neutral to mildly bearish momentum, while longer timeframes retain an overall uptrend bias. Investing.com

Technical verdict

Technically, XAUUSD is in a consolidative phase within a broader bullish context. Immediate resistance near ~4,380–4,400 caps upside, while initial support around ~4,250–4,280 provides the first downside buffer. A break beyond these key levels will clarify short‑term directional bias.

---

Strategy (short term)

Intraday / Sunday, 04 January 2026 – Setup and Trade Ideas

Execution note: Using confirmation signals (e.g. candlestick patterns or volume spikes) near key levels may reduce false breakouts given recent consolidation.

Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook

Base case: XAUUSD is likely to remain range‑bound between approximately 4,000–4,500 as markets digest recent gains and await macro data such as inflation prints or Fed meeting minutes. Stops placed beyond the invalidation thresholds will help manage risk.

7 Day Outlook Scenarios

---

Summary

Fundamental / Economic verdict: XAUUSD fundamentals are neutral to mildly constructive, supported by safe‑haven demand, expectations of rate cuts and central bank buying, but tempered by profit‑taking and mixed macro signals.

Technical verdict: Technically, gold remains range‑bound in the short term with a broader bullish context. Resistance near ~4,380–4,400 and deeper supply zones near ~4,450–4,500 cap immediate upside, while support around ~4,250 and ~4,000–4,100 defines key downside floors.

Conclusion: Over the near term, XAUUSD is expected to trade within a defined range, with potential for breakout if momentum returns or a corrective move if key support breaks. Macro catalysts such as US economic data and Federal Reserve guidance will be important for directional conviction.

---

XAUUSD Chart

---

Economic News relating to XAUUSD

[Top]

---

EURUSD Analysis for Sunday, 04 January 2026

Current spot price: ~1.1719 USD per EUR (latest available market data) FT Markets

---

Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)

EURUSD is influenced heavily by monetary policy expectations, macroeconomic data, and relative economic performance between the Eurozone and the United States. With the Federal Reserve having entered a rate‑cut cycle in 2025 and markets pricing potential further easing, downward pressure on the US dollar has supported EURUSD gains at times. Conversely, lingering sluggish growth in the Eurozone and mixed economic data have constrained sustained euro strength. Forex+1

Economic divergence remains a central theme as the ECB has kept rates steady while the Fed’s easing continues, narrowing yield spreads that traditionally support EURUSD upside. Expectations of macro data releases such as US inflation and employment figures, and European sentiment and growth data, will remain pivotal in shaping short‑term dynamics. FXStreet

Fundamental / Economic verdict

In the short term, fundamentals for EURUSD are neutral to mildly constructive. Supportive factors include potential further US easing and a stable Eurozone policy stance; headwinds stem from economic skepticism in Europe and periods of USD strength on renewed risk appetite.

---

Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)

Technically, EURUSD has oscillated around the 1.17 area, showing a mix of range trading and directional uncertainty. Indicators on shorter timeframes suggest a bearish tone, while longer‑term moving averages remain supportive, signalling a potential extended uptrend if upside levels are reclaimed. Investing.com+1

Support / Resistance Levels (immediate)

Market sentiment:

• Short‑term oscillators and moving averages on intraday and 4‑hour charts show downward bias or neutral conditions, hinting at consolidation. FXStreet

• On daily timeframes, the pair remains within a broad range, awaiting a break above resistance for sustained bullish momentum or a breach below support for bearish continuation. DailyForex

Technical verdict

EURUSD’s technical landscape is range‑bound with mixed momentum. Resistance near ~1.1750–1.1840 must be cleared for a bullish extension, while support ~1.1650 and below will define short‑term downside risk.

---

Strategy (short term)

Intraday / Sunday, 04 January 2026 – Setup and Trade Ideas

Execution note: Price action within a range necessitates confirmation signals such as strong candlestick patterns or volume expansion to validate breakout/trend continuation.

Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook

Base case: Expect EURUSD to remain range‑bound between roughly 1.1650 and 1.1800 in the short term, digesting macro signals and waiting for catalyst data. Employ tight stops around invalidation levels to manage downside risk.

7 Day Outlook Scenarios

---

Summary

Fundamental / Economic verdict: EURUSD fundamentals are neutral to mildly constructive, with mixed signals from monetary policy divergence, macro data expectations and USD dynamics. The balance of risks hinges on upcoming data and central bank communication. Forex

Technical verdict: Technically, the pair is trading within a defined range with neutral to slightly bearish short‑term sentiment. Key levels at ~1.1750–1.1840 resistance and ~1.1650–1.1600 support are crucial for breakout or breakdown confirmation. DailyForex

Conclusion: In the near term, EURUSD is most likely to remain range‑bound, awaiting decisive macroeconomic catalysts to tip momentum. Traders should focus on the described support/resistance bands and exercise disciplined risk management.

---

EURUSD Chart

---

Economic News relating to EURUSD

[Top]

---

CHFJPY Analysis for Sunday, 04 January 2026

Current spot price: ~197.95 JPY per CHF IFCM UK

---

Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)

CHFJPY reflects the relative performance of the Swiss franc versus the Japanese yen and is influenced by macroeconomic factors in Switzerland, Japan and global risk sentiment. Both the franc and yen are considered safe‑haven currencies, but divergences in monetary policy and economic performance can drive direction.

Recent market analysis suggests structural weakness in the Japanese yen relative to the franc and other major peers, driven in part by differentials in real interest rates and expectations for monetary policy. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted towards tighter policy but real yields remain low, whereas the Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintains policy stability with the franc benefitting during risk‑averse periods. TradingView

Macro drivers such as risk sentiment, global equity performance and Japanese domestic economic data (inflation, trade balance) remain key to CHFJPY’s outlook. Continued yen weakness versus the franc underpins the broader context. Forex

Fundamental / Economic verdict

Short‑term fundamentals for CHFJPY are neutral to mildly constructive for the franc relative to the yen due to structural pressure on the yen and safe‑haven flows. However, broader economic data and policy expectations could introduce volatility.

---

Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)

Technical readings present a mixed but slightly bullish bias, with several indicators showing continued upside pressure while price action stays within a broad range. Pivot point analysis for CHFJPY shows nearby resistance just above spot and multiple support levels that may act as downside buffers. Investing.com+1

Short‑term technical tools such as moving averages and oscillators yield neutral to buy‑leaning signals in multiple timeframes, while other indicators remain cautious, signalling consolidation around current levels. TradingView

Support / Resistance Levels (immediate)

Market sentiment:

• Daily and weekly charts show buy signals in broader timeframes, while shorter timeframes may oscillate as consolidation persists. Investing.com

• Pivot point levels imply a narrow trading band near current prices, consistent with range trading seen recently. ActionForex

Technical verdict

Technically, CHFJPY is range‑bound with mild bullish undertones. Immediate resistance above current price may cap near‑term upside unless cleared decisively, and support levels near the pivot zones offer buffers on corrective moves.

---

Strategy (short term)

Intraday / Sunday, 04 January 2026 – Setup and Trade Ideas

Execution note: Given recent consolidation, await clear confirmations (e.g. break & close beyond pivot bands or volume expansion) before initiating directional trades.

Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook

Base case: CHFJPY is expected to remain range‑bound around current levels, oscillating between the support and resistance pivot bands. Traders should monitor key levels and manage risk with stops beyond invalidation points.

7 Day Outlook Scenarios

---

Summary

Fundamental / Economic verdict: CHFJPY’s fundamentals are neutral to mildly constructive for the franc against the yen, reflecting interest rate differentials and safe‑haven dynamics, with yen structural weakness providing relative strength to CHFJPY.

Technical verdict: Technically, CHFJPY is range‑bound with mild bullish bias. Resistance levels near ~198.01–198.36 and support near ~197.78–197.37 define the immediate market structure.

Conclusion: Over the short term, CHFJPY is most likely to trade within a defined range, with potential for breakout or corrective moves depending on market catalysts. Traders should use delineated pivot levels for tactical entries and manage risk accordingly.

---

CHFJPY Chart

---

Economic News relating to CHFJPY

[Top]

---

EURJPY Analysis for Sunday, 04 January 2026

Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)

EURJPY remains primarily driven by (i) the rate differential and policy-path divergence between the ECB and the BoJ, and (ii) risk sentiment (carry appetite versus defensive JPY demand). Into early January, liquidity conditions are typically thinner and headlines can have an outsized impact.

Key macro drivers to monitor (immediate term)

• BoJ policy normalisation: the BoJ’s December 2025 hike and signalling of further steps keeps the JPY sensitive to Japan rates repricing and wage/inflation updates. YouTube+1

• ECB policy stance: the ECB has been maintaining a restrictive stance, which supports the EUR side of EURJPY via carry and relative yield support. European Central Bank

• Risk sentiment: equity drawdowns / volatility spikes can unwind carry (EURJPY downside), while stable-to-positive risk tone tends to keep EURJPY bid.

• Japan data focus: wage momentum is a key transmission channel for further BoJ tightening expectations. Investing.com+1

Fundamental / Economic verdict

Near-term bias is mildly supportive for EURJPY while carry remains attractive, but the balance is more two-sided than late-2025 because BoJ tightening risk is now live. Net: constructive bias with elevated headline sensitivity to Japan rates and risk sentiment. YouTube+2European Central Bank+2

Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)

Current spot reference: 183.81

Market structure (immediate term)

• Bias: upward-leaning unless price breaks and holds below the 183.10–182.30 support zone.

• Behavioural note: Sunday pricing can be gappy/erratic; technical triggers are more reliable after broader liquidity returns.

Support / resistance map (actionable)

Momentum / positioning (tactical read)

• A sustained bid above 184.60 favours continuation towards 185.40 (trend continuation).

• Failure to reclaim 184.00 after dips, combined with a break below 183.10, raises risk of a deeper pullback into 182.30.

Technical verdict

Short-term technical bias is cautiously bullish while above S1 (183.10), with upside continuation favoured on a clean break/hold above R1 (184.60). A decisive move below S1 shifts focus to S2 (182.30) and reduces confidence in longs.

Strategy (short term)

Intraday / Sunday, 04 January 2026 – Setup and Trade Ideas

Execution note: treat Sunday moves as “probing” price action; sizing typically reduced and confirmation preferred.

Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook

Base case (next 24–48 hours): range-to-upward bias, with 183.10 holding as the key “line in the sand”.

• Preferred risk posture: buy dips above 183.10 and buy confirmed breakouts above 184.60.

• Invalidation: sustained trade below 183.10 shifts the plan towards defensive positioning and 182.30 focus.

• Risk controls (practical): reduce leverage in thin liquidity; prefer “close-based” confirmation around 183.10 / 184.60; avoid holding oversized risk through headline windows.

7 Day Outlook Scenarios

Summary

From the Fundamental / Economic verdict: EURJPY remains mildly supported by carry and the ECB’s restrictive stance, but BoJ tightening risk materially increases two-way volatility and headline sensitivity. European Central Bank+2YouTube+2

From the Technical verdict: the tactical bias is cautiously bullish while above 183.10, with a continuation trigger on a clean break/hold above 184.60; a break below 183.10 shifts focus to 182.30 and favours a corrective phase.

Integrated short-term conclusion: favour long setups on support holds and confirmed breakouts, while keeping downside risk tightly defined around 183.10 due to increased JPY sensitivity after BoJ normalisation.

---

EURJPY Chart

---

Economic News relating to EURJPY

[Top]

---

USDJPY Analysis for Sunday, 04 January 2026

Current spot price: ~156.80 JPY per USD TradingView

---

Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)

The USDJPY pair reflects the interplay between US macroeconomic momentum and Japanese monetary policy, set against risk sentiment and global interest rate expectations. The US dollar experienced a notable downturn in 2025 driven by expected Federal Reserve rate cuts and macro uncertainty, but it has shown a mild rebound at the start of 2026 amid anticipation of key data releases and potential policy shifts. Reuters+1

Meanwhile in Japan, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has begun normalising policy, raising its policy rate and lifting long‑term Japanese Government Bond yields to multi‑decade highs. Despite this, recent yen strength has been uneven, with USDJPY supported by broader dollar resilience and carry flows. TastyFX

Expectations of narrowing interest rate differentials—with markets pricing in Fed cuts and BoJ tightening—pose a headwind for USDJPY. However, the dollar’s recent rebound alongside robust U.S. data could counterbalance that pressure. FXEmpire

Fundamental / Economic verdict

Short‑term fundamentals for USDJPY are mixed to neutral, with contradictions between rate expectations (Fed cuts vs BoJ tightening) and resilience in dollar demand. Market focus remains on forthcoming Fed and BoJ meetings and macro releases as key drivers of direction.

---

Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)

Technically, USDJPY has been consolidating near recent highs after a pronounced rally, with price action showing neutral to slightly bullish traits. Momentum indicators such as MACD have recently signalled potential renewed upside, though confirmation above key resistance remains essential. Babypips.com

Recent technical research highlights consolidation below structural resistance while key support levels remain intact, suggesting a broader bullish trend context but near‑term sideways behaviour. ActionForex

Support / Resistance Levels (immediate)

Market sentiment:

• Technical indicators show a neutral to mildly bullish context within consolidation, with price action bounded by the above levels. ActionForex

• Momentum signals hint at potential upside if resistance gives way, but risk of failure and retest of support remains if macro catalysts disappoint. Babypips.com

Technical verdict

USDJPY’s technical structure is range‑bound near recent highs within a broader bullish background. Immediate resistance above ~157.70 stands between spot and further upside, while support near ~155.20 and ~154.30 defines the lower edge of the current trading band.

---

Strategy (short term)

Intraday / Sunday, 04 January 2026 – Setup and Trade Ideas

Execution note: Use confirmation such as decisive closes beyond pivot bands or momentum expansion to validate directional plays given consolidation risk.

Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook

Base case: USDJPY is likely to hover within the 154.30–158.85 range, responding to macro news and positioning flows. Careful risk management with precise invalidation levels will help mitigate choppy price action.

7 Day Outlook Scenarios

---

Summary

Fundamental / Economic verdict: USDJPY fundamentals are mixed to neutral, with conflicting signals from interest rate expectations, dollar resilience, and BoJ policy dynamics. Markets remain sensitive to upcoming central bank meetings and macro data. Reuters+1

Technical verdict: Technically, the pair is range‑bound near recent highs within a broader bullish context, with defined resistance near ~157.70–158.85 and support near ~155.20–154.30. ActionForex

Conclusion: In the short term, USDJPY is expected to trade within a defined range, with directional conviction hinging on macro catalysts and clear breaks of the key support/resistance bands outlined.

---

USDJPY Chart

---

Economic News relating to USDJPY

[Top]

---

GBPUSD Analysis for Sunday, 04 January 2026

Current spot price: ~1.3457 USD per GBP TradingView

---

Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)

The GBPUSD exchange rate is shaped by relative macroeconomic conditions in the United Kingdom and the United States, along with central bank policy expectations and broad risk sentiment. For 2025, the British pound was on course for its largest annual rise against the dollar since 2017, helped by U.S. dollar weakness driven by expected Federal Reserve rate cuts, notwithstanding lingering UK economic headwinds such as political concerns and subdued growth expectations. Reuters

The Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates several times in 2025 and may continue its accommodative stance in early 2026 if economic data remain weak. Conversely, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) faces markets pricing in policy easing, contributing to dollar pressure. Financial Times

However, risks persist: UK inflation and growth data, alongside fiscal policy developments (including budget expectations), could continue to weigh on GBP sentiment; in the U.S., stronger employment or inflation prints could support the dollar. Equals Money

Fundamental / Economic verdict

Short‑term fundamentals for GBPUSD are neutral to mildly supportive of the pound, anchored in broad dollar weakness and anticipated policy divergence, though constrained by UK economic uncertainties and event risk around key economic releases.

---

Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)

GBPUSD’s technical profile shows consolidation after recent moves higher, with short‑term indicators offering mixed signals. Traders observe the pair hovering near multi‑week price ranges, with both bullish and bearish technical signals present depending on timeframe and indicator sets. Investing.com

Support / Resistance Levels (immediate)

Market sentiment:

• Short‑term technical indicators paint a neutral bias, with oscillators and moving averages mixed between buy and sell signals on recent data. Investing.com

• Broader timeframes still reflect structural support for further gains provided key resistance levels are cleared. ActionForex

Technical verdict

Technically, GBPUSD is trading within a consolidation range near recent highs. Upside momentum depends on a clear break above ~1.3500–1.3533, while a breach below ~1.3380 and then ~1.3300 would signal deeper pullbacks.

---

Strategy (short term)

Intraday / Sunday, 04 January 2026 – Setup and Trade Ideas

Execution note: Use confirmation (e.g., sustained closes beyond pivot bands and momentum expansion) before committing to a directional trade.

Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook

Base case: GBPUSD is likely to remain range‑bound between ~1.3300 and ~1.3533 in the short term as markets weigh macroeconomic data and policy expectations. Risk management should emphasise tight invalidation levels given mixed technical signals.

7 Day Outlook Scenarios

---

Summary

Fundamental / Economic verdict: GBPUSD’s short‑term fundamentals are neutral to mildly supportive of GBP, underpinned by broad USD weakness and rate expectations, but tempered by UK economic uncertainty and event risk. Reuters+1

Technical verdict: Technically, GBPUSD is consolidating near multi‑week highs within an identifiable range. A break above ~1.3500–1.3533 would signal resumption of broader gains, while losses below ~1.3380–1.3300 would indicate deeper retracement pressure. Investing.com+1

Conclusion: In the short term, GBPUSD is poised to trade in a defined range with balanced risks on either side. Breaks of key support or resistance bands will likely define the next directional phase.

---

GBPUSD Chart

---

Economic News relating to GBPUSD

[Top]

---

EURGBP Analysis for Sunday, 04 January 2026

Current spot price: ~0.8707 GBP per EUR TradingView

---

Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)

The EURGBP exchange rate reflects economic and monetary policy differentials between the Eurozone and the United Kingdom. Recent price action shows the euro trading around 0.87–0.8750, with attempts to test higher levels after bouncing from mid‑term lows. FXStreet

From a fundamental perspective, both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) have impacted EURGBP through policy stances. ECB policy expectations and eurozone data releases can support the euro, while UK economic factors and BoE guidance on rate cuts or pauses influence sterling. Recent performance data indicate the pound weakened against the euro over 2025, even as it strengthened against other majors, due to UK fiscal and growth concerns. Reuters

Additionally, broader economic sentiment around growth prospects in the Eurozone vs the UK, inflation dynamics, and political developments (e.g., French politics, ECB–BoE divergence) may add intermittent pressure or support to the pair. FXStreet

Fundamental / Economic verdict

Short‑term fundamentals for EURGBP are slightly supportive of the euro, with scoped upside driven by persistent macro differentials and recent euro strength, though UK data and BoE guidance remain significant to direction.

---

Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)

Current technical readings for EURGBP show a slightly bearish to neutral setup, with multiple indicators signalling downward pressure and limited upside momentum in the near term. Moving averages from short to long term show predominantly sell signals, suggesting technical bias towards downside unless strong breakouts occur. Investing.com

Recent technical outlooks from independent providers suggest potential continuation of declines from higher levels and a bearish short‑term intraday bias, unless key resistances are cleared. ActionForex

Support / Resistance Levels (immediate)

Market sentiment:

• Moving average indicators show a strong sell bias across multiple timeframes. Investing.com

• Price action around current levels suggests neutral to bearish intraday momentum, with trades hovering near pivot supports. TradingView

Technical verdict

Technically, EURGBP is neutral to bearish in the short term, bounded by resistance near ~0.8730–0.8750 and supported above ~0.8680–0.8650. Breaks below support could prompt deeper retracements, while resistance breaks would be necessary for bullish confirmation.

---

Strategy (short term)

Intraday / Sunday, 04 January 2026 – Setup and Trade Ideas

Execution note: Given mixed signals and low volatility compared with some major pairs, tactical entry with confirmation (e.g. closes beyond levels) is advisable.

Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook

Base case: EURGBP is expected to remain in a range near current levels, with downside pressure within defined bands and moderate upside only on broader euro strength or macro surprises. Stops just beyond invalidation points help contain risk.

7 Day Outlook Scenarios

---

Summary

Fundamental / Economic verdict: The fundamental backdrop is slightly supportive of the euro, driven by relative macro data and policy expectations, though UK resilience and BoE guidance remain key to direction.

Technical verdict: Technically, EURGBP leans neutral to bearish in the near term, with sell signals dominant among moving averages and resistance levels capping upside.

Conclusion: In the short term, EURGBP is likely to trade within a defined range, with bearish bias around resistance and support acting as pivots. Directional moves will depend on macro news flow and clear breaks of key technical levels.

---

EURGBP Chart

---

Economic News relating to EURGBP

[Top]

---

GBPJPY Analysis for Sunday, 04 January 2026

Current spot price: ~211.1 JPY per GBP https://www.instaforex.com/

---

Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)

The GBPJPY pair remains sensitive to relative monetary policy and risk appetite dynamics. The British pound has been supported by carry trade flows and relatively stronger UK data expectations compared with the historically low‑yielding Japanese yen, helping the pair sustain elevated levels near multi‑year highs. FXStreet+1

In Japan, any speculation of intervention or shifts in the Bank of Japan’s policy stance can bolster the yen, prompting corrective phases in GBPJPY. Risk‑on environments typically weaken the yen and support the cross, while risk‑off episodes strengthen it as safe‑haven demand rises. VT Markets

Broader macro considerations such as UK economic releases, UK inflation and BoE guidance versus Japanese economic signals and BoJ communication will continue to influence the pair’s direction in the short term.

Fundamental / Economic verdict

Short‑term fundamentals for GBPJPY are moderately supportive of upside, driven by carry and risk‑on sentiment that favours the pound against the yen, but tempered by intervention risk and potential macro surprises that could strengthen the yen.

---

Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)

Technical readings indicate a near‑term consolidation around recent highs, with price fluctuating around the 211 level. Daily technical indicators and moving averages show a generally bullish trend context, although short‑term momentum oscillators and consolidation dynamics point to neutral to mildly bullish sentiment. Investing.com

ActionForex technical updates note intraday neutral bias with consolidations below key levels and the possibility of deeper retracements before renewed advances. ActionForex

Support / Resistance Levels (immediate)

Market sentiment:

• Moving averages and technical studies reveal a bullish bias on medium/longer timeframes, supported by strong momentum and higher lows. Investing.com

• Shorter‑term indicators show neutral to slightly bullish consolidation, with price action contained within defined bands. ActionForex

Technical verdict

Technically, GBPJPY exhibits a bullish trend with near‑term consolidation, trading around pivotal levels. The pair may extend its rally upon a break above ~212.50–213.20, while breakdowns below ~208.50 could signal short‑term corrections.

---

Strategy (short term)

Intraday / Sunday, 04 January 2026 – Setup and Trade Ideas

Execution note: Use decisive closures beyond pivots and volume confirmation before committing to directional trades.

Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook

Base case: GBPJPY is expected to consolidate around current ranges near 211, with upside potential if risk‑on sentiment persists and technical resistance clears. Controlled risk management with tight invalidation levels is crucial due to potential yen relief rallies.

7 Day Outlook Scenarios

---

Summary

Fundamental / Economic verdict: GBPJPY’s short‑term fundamentals are moderately supportive of upside, driven by interest rate differentials, carry trade flows and risk‑on sentiment, though jolt risks from yen strength and intervention considerations remain. FXStreet+1

Technical verdict: Technically, the pair shows bullish trend context with near‑term consolidation around 211, with support and resistance levels defining the immediate trading range. Investing.com+1

Conclusion: GBPJPY is likely to consolidate within defined bands near current levels, with upside continuation possible if key resistances break and market sentiment remains risk‑on. Downside corrections are plausible in risk‑off environments or breakouts below key supports.

---

GBPJPY Chart

---

Economic News relating to GBPJPY

[Top]

---

XAGUSD Analysis for Sunday, 04 January 2026

Current spot price: ~72.6 USD per troy ounce Seeking Alpha

---

Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)

Silver (XAG/USD) has been in the spotlight following an exceptional rally in 2025, with prices surging dramatically and reaching all‑time highs well above previous ranges. The rally has been driven by a combination of strong industrial demand, investment flows, supply tightness, and expectations of softer U.S. monetary policy, which has eased real yields and bolstered precious metals’ appeal. Reuters+1

Beyond speculative forces, structural factors such as supply shortages, shrinking inventories on major exchanges, and rising demand for silver in green energy and electronics sectors have added to bullish pressure. Meanwhile, macroeconomic uncertainty and safe‑haven demand have further underpinned prices. FXEmpire+1

However, recent price action shows heightened volatility and periodic sharp corrections, partly as a result of position adjustments due to higher margin requirements on futures and profit‑taking after record peaks. Barron’s+1

Fundamental / Economic verdict

Short‑term fundamentals for XAGUSD remain broadly bullish, underpinned by industrial demand, supply constraints, and macro drivers favouring precious metals. However, volatility and corrective risks have increased following the parabolic advance.

---

Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)

Technical indicators for XAGUSD show a predominantly bullish trend structure, with prices holding near recent highs and maintaining upward momentum in several analyses. Various forecasting models highlight trend continuity following a series of higher highs and higher lows, though some suggest overextended conditions and the possibility of consolidation or pullbacks. FXStreet+1

Market sentiment is relatively balanced, with trader positioning mixed between longs and shorts, indicating both bullish conviction and caution among participants. Myfxbook.com

Support / Resistance Levels (immediate)

Market sentiment:

• Moving average signals strongly suggest bullish technical bias over medium to long timeframes, though short‑term oscillators imply possible pullbacks or consolidation. Investing.com India

• Trader positioning data show a near‑even split between longs and shorts, reflecting balanced market expectations around current levels. Myfxbook.com

Technical verdict

Technically, XAGUSD remains in a structurally bullish phase with key support levels maintaining the potential for trend continuation. However, short‑term overextension and volatility increase the risk of consolidation or corrective retracements ahead of further advances.

---

Strategy (short term)

Intraday / Sunday, 04 January 2026 – Setup and Trade Ideas

Execution note: Use decisive breakouts and volume confirmation ahead of trend continuation trades, and be mindful of volatility around key macro releases.

Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook

Base case: XAGUSD is expected to fluctuate within a broad range near recent highs as markets digest profit‑taking and macro catalysts. Bullish continuation remains likely if key supports hold and macro tailwinds persist. Risk management should emphasize stops near invalidation levels due to elevated short‑term volatility.

7 Day Outlook Scenarios

---

Summary

Fundamental / Economic verdict: XAGUSD’s short‑term fundamentals are broadly supportive of higher prices, driven by industrial demand, supply imbalances, safe‑haven appeal, and expectations of softer monetary policy. However, heightened volatility and periodic corrections have emerged after the rapid advance. Reuters+1

Technical verdict: Technically, XAGUSD remains in a bullish phase, with structural trend support and moving average signals favouring continuation. Short‑term indicators suggest possible consolidation or corrective pullbacks, reflecting overextended conditions. FXStreet+1

Conclusion: In the short term, XAGUSD is likely to trade within defined support and resistance bands, with the potential for both trend continuation on breakouts and corrective retracements. Directional conviction will depend on clear moves beyond key levels and prevailing macro sentiment.

---

XAGUSD Chart

---

Economic News relating to XAGUSD

[Top]

---

Fibbinarchie.com

secundum Liber Abaci
Praemonitus, Praemunitus
Fibbinarchie