Fundamental / Economic Backdrop (short term)
Silver remains influenced by a combination of USD dynamics, real yield expectations, and broader risk sentiment. Recent sessions reflect a continuation of precious metals strength, underpinned by ongoing market sensitivity to central bank guidance and inflation persistence. While no immediate high-impact US data is expected mid-session, positioning remains reactive to USD softness and safe-haven demand spill-over from gold.
Industrial demand expectations provide an underlying bid, but short-term price action remains primarily macro-driven rather than supply-led. Volatility remains elevated, increasing the likelihood of sharp intraday extensions around key technical levels.
Fundamental / Economic verdict
The short-term fundamental bias remains mildly supportive for silver, though upside momentum is increasingly dependent on USD behaviour and risk sentiment rather than fresh macro catalysts.
Technical and Market Sentiment (short term)
XAGUSD is trading at 66.11, maintaining a strong bullish structure after recent acceleration higher. Momentum indicators suggest an extended but not yet exhausted trend, with price holding above key short-term moving averages. Market sentiment remains bullish but cautious, with increasing sensitivity near resistance.
Key technical levels are outlined below:
| Level Type | Price Area |
|---|---|
| Resistance (R2) | 67.40 – 67.80 |
| Resistance (R1) | 66.80 – 67.00 |
| Pivot / Near-term Balance | 66.00 – 66.10 |
| Support (S1) | 65.20 – 65.40 |
| Support (S2) | 64.30 – 64.60 |
A sustained hold above the 66.00 region keeps the short-term trend constructive, while any failure below this zone may invite corrective consolidation.
Technical verdict
The technical outlook remains bullish with signs of near-term overextension. Continuation is favoured above 66.00, while a corrective pullback remains a secondary but increasing risk.
Strategy (short term)
Intraday / Thursday, December 18, 2025 – Setup and Trade Ideas
| Scenario | Bias | Area of Interest | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Break-and-hold | Bullish | Above 66.80 | Targets momentum extension towards 67.40+ |
| Pullback buy | Bullish | 65.40 – 65.80 | Trend continuation zone |
| Rejection fade | Cautious bearish | 67.40 – 67.80 | Short-term mean reversion only |
Base Case & Risk Managed Outlook
The base case favours buying dips while price remains above 65.20, with risk defined below this level. Position sizing should reflect elevated volatility, as sharp intraday swings remain likely.
2 Day Outlook Scenarios
| Scenario | Probability | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | Moderate–High | Consolidation followed by push towards 67.50+ |
| Range consolidation | Moderate | Sideways trade between 65.20 and 66.80 |
| Deeper correction | Low–Moderate | Break below 65.20 targeting 64.50 |
Summary
Short-term fundamentals remain broadly supportive for silver, primarily via USD sensitivity and risk sentiment rather than fresh macro drivers. Technically, XAGUSD maintains a bullish structure above 66.00, though momentum is increasingly stretched. The preferred approach remains trend-aligned dip buying with disciplined risk management, while remaining alert to corrective consolidation over the next two sessions.
XAGUSD Chart
Economic News relating to XAGUSD
